New beginnings - 25% Truth, 80% Bollocks

[The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey]

Fuck sake, at least wait until we’ve played 10 games or so.

[DMC]

My only issue with a managed decline is how does clem benefir from that? He isn't making money and infact loses money with us so why would it be in his interest to manage a decline

[DMC]

What do we class as a marquee signing these days. I see someone class 35 year old david mgoldrick as that the other day

[Mooneyraker]

My only issue with a managed decline is how does clem benefir from that? He isn't making money and infact loses money with us so why would it be in his interest to manage a decline

Reduce spending to a minimum whilst trying to flip the club.

[Mooneyraker]

Fuck sake, at least wait until we’ve played 10 games or so.

We've played over 100 under Clem's ownership!

[Trashbat?]

I hate to say it, but I think there is at least 10 years of this to come. The ground redevelopment will increase our revenue in the long term if all goes to plan, however we have to pay for it somehow. Can only see us tightening our belts in the foreseeable.

[BambooToTheFuture]

I guess the the limit in question though Riddick would be how long do we wait and see? I imagine that will be different for all...there maybe some consensus on what is deemed a similar timescale to wait until? Of course, consensus isn't always correct but do we look at this again at EOY3, EOY4, or EOY5?

 Town COULD be a Championship club by EOY5 but could just as easily be National League as well. I think that might be where the worry is. Especially whilst still in L2. These times were those years that Reg effectively kept on foreshadowing regards evading the 'Football League trapdoor'.

I guess a pessimist would look towards the non-league club status and the optimist would look towards the Championship club status - I'm sure a good chunk probably fall somewhere in the middle. Maybe slightly upper than where we are or stagnating here currently.

I'll hedge that by EOY5 Town will be a League One club BUT not challenging yet. Although by EOY5 I do expect Town have some kind of infrastructure that allows them to challenge and maybe the ground is close to some kind of completion. At least those things should at a bare minimum should be underway.

By that reckoning I would say whilst not challenging at that point the club would still be in a better place than it was with Power. I would then expect this to give the club the confidence to make a charge at promotion in League One and elevate to Championship clb status. The earliest I can realistically see this is EOY6 or EOY7; and that's being generous.

NB: Mooneyraker opening up this series of questions, based on the ambitions/aims of the current board is quite a good thing. It has got us talking and discussing any potential club prospects in the right kind of way without too much discourse.

[Mooneyraker]

I guess the the limit in question though Riddick would be how long do we wait and see? I imagine that will be different for all...there maybe some consensus on what is deemed a similar timescale to wait until? Of course, consensus isn't always correct but do we look at this again at EOY3, EOY4, or EOY5?

 Town COULD be a Championship club by EOY5 but could just as easily be National League as well. I think that might be where the worry is. Especially whilst still in L2. These times were those years that Reg effectively kept on foreshadowing regards evading the 'Football League trapdoor'.

I guess a pessimist would look towards the non-league club status and the optimist would look towards the Championship club status - I'm sure a good chunk probably fall somewhere in the middle. Maybe slightly upper than where we are or stagnating here currently.

I'll hedge that by EOY5 Town will be a League One club BUT not challenging yet. Although by EOY5 I do expect Town have some kind of infrastructure that allows them to challenge and maybe the ground is close to some kind of completion. At least those things should at a bare minimum should be underway.

By that reckoning I would say whilst not challenging at that point the club would still be in a better place than it was with Power. I would then expect this to give the club the confidence to make a charge at promotion in League One and elevate to Championship clb status. The earliest I can realistically see this is EOY6 or EOY7; and that's being generous.

NB: Mooneyraker opening up this series of questions, based on the ambitions/aims of the current board is quite a good thing. It has got us talking and discussing any potential club prospects in the right kind of way without too much discourse.

Thanks!  

[BambooToTheFuture]

It is hard to shake the feeling that we are in managed decline.

We either need news of major investment in the CG or some marquee signings to dispel the lingering smell of death around the club.

But a marquee signing in one season won't really determine the long term fortunes of the club or necessarily bring about a good model of sustainability. It could bring short term success/relief but this doesn't bring longevity. One Swallow, Summer and all that 

[Mooneyraker]

But a marquee signing in one season won't really determine the long term fortunes of the club or necessarily bring about a good model of sustainability. It could bring short term success/relief but this doesn't bring longevity. One Swallow, Summer and all that 

Totally, that's why I've used the plural! I want a gulp of swallows.

[RobertT]

I hate to say it, but I think there is at least 10 years of this to come. The ground redevelopment will increase our revenue in the long term if all goes to plan, however we have to pay for it somehow. Can only see us tightening our belts in the foreseeable.

Actually, the ground ownership model means the clubs has minimal risk on the line with the Ground development, directly.  The Joint Venture owns the property and is responsible for the Redevelopment, based on what has been released thus far.  They would seek the necessary capital finance to do work and price that into any rent they charge the club - so that's where the indirect cost appears, but at an agreed level which has a starting point below that which we paid the Council each year.

Looking at the Gillingham example I came across earlier, even owning the Leashold to the CG, with any sort of Planning Permission or development, could very well add a significant asset to the clubs books, and Clem also gets 50% of the freehold value to play with.  It was also mentioned the plan is to use his firm for a lot of the works, so he gets to spend the money they finance via his own company, earning back his loans I imagine.  I would not be surprised to see the contracts for development signed with Axis and a few months or year or so later, Clem has his exit plan.

[Riddick]

I guess the the limit in question though Riddick would be how long do we wait and see? I imagine that will be different for all...there maybe some consensus on what is deemed a similar timescale to wait until? Of course, consensus isn't always correct but do we look at this again at EOY3, EOY4, or EOY5?

That's a very fair question.

I think the problem is most fans want the owner to invest, build the team, move through the leagues and then for the infrastructure to follow. This is essentially a gamble, and what has been tried many times before. Its what we did in the days under Black/DiCanio. Thats how i think most fans see this going. And it has some merit, on the field success ultimately builds everything else.

What they are trying to do at the moment is sustainably build the club, so its not a gamble or a risk. The downside is if income drops, then costs drop, and we have the sort of issues people worry about right now, which is becoming an average league 2 club. However morally this is probably the right thing for a club thats been in Admin twice before? Its far less glamourous, is probably a lot slower unless you are great at identifying and recruiting talent (something year 1 under Clem was close to being very good at).

[BambooToTheFuture]

Totally, that's why I've used the plural! I want a gulp of swallows.

The point still stands though when talking about long term objectives. Yes those might bare success in the short term but you need more than a one of season. In some ways, and with hindsight, it feels like the Wellens promotion season really was a one off. I want Town out of League Two as much as most of us do but I don't want it to be a spike on the chart.

Currently, Town aren't going to sign marquee or even tent acquisitions on a three year deal or even a two plus one deal. There might be the odd fixed two year with a clause to extend if objectives met by both parties but we're looking at several one year deals. By this I mean it with any so called ''marquee'' signings - I don't mean it for squad players or a academy graduate being offered their first deal.

So where does that stand in terms of player sustainability? That's quite a difficult thing to achieve at this level as it's such a cyclical and recyclable market. At League One that can change a bit and Championship of course a totally different animal. But Club sustainability can be entirely different/seperate to Player sustainability and its here where I want to see the most progress.

There won't be too much need to market or sell the club to players/agents/managers et al if you've already laid down the tracks for them. Effectively - build it and they will come...eventually. It's just that currently and realistically, Town just aren't that much of an attractive club right now - in many departments. That's down to the board {Clem and Rob} to bring that change about. Question...have they between them got the nous and benjamins in order to do so? My answer would be, not yet or we w/don't know until further down the timeline. My head is prepared to come back to this in another two to three years and see how it compares from the here and now. My heart genuinely feels like the board currently need some help both financially and professionally in achieving whatever they are setting out to do. Without actioning or sourcing that help, I feel like it'll become the ever largening elephant in a very small boardroom. Let's hope that they are and we can see the fruits of it further down the line.

[BambooToTheFuture]

Clem also gets 50% of the freehold value to play with.  It was also mentioned the plan is to use his firm for a lot of the works, so he gets to spend the money they finance via his own company, earning back his loans I imagine.  I would not be surprised to see the contracts for development signed with Axis and a few months or year or so later, Clem has his exit plan.

I could be totally wrong but I swear I remember an interview where Clem distinctly said that his company would not work on the County Ground stadia 

[ChalkyWhiteIsGod]

Fuck sake, at least wait until we’ve played 10 games or so.

I'm not saying we'll be shit this year. But this was said 100 times last year when people were saying this loads last year when it was obvious we weren't up to it and were in for a shit season.

Then 10 games came and people said can't count cup games.

Then 10 league games came and people were saying were still near the play offs when we were drawing games we should have been pumped in.

Tired of being devil advocated to death. If people think we look like we're going to be shit, sometimes they're on to something.

This season, the jury is out big time. Would be nice to be making as many signings as swindon wildcats or the women's team this week though.