Gills v STFC Matchday Thread

[Nemo]

I've seen those stats but not sure I believe them - Gills have more than two shots on target in the highlights alone, in addition to two actual goals:



1) Hutton cross tipped over (0:55) presumably hasn't been included as it might have hit the bar
2) There's a weak header into Bycroft's hands at 2:55 which must count even if it was a poor attempt
3) The header off the bar/over the line at 3:54 surely that counts, or does hitting the bar mean off target even if it went in afterwards?
4) Header onto the post from a Hutton cross 5:20 won't count but oh so close, seconds later they score which simply must be a shot on target!
5) Then the penalty - that counts right?
6) Then Bycroft tips over last kick of the game on 9:40

Two offside goals obviously don't get counted but there are at least four Gills shots on target in the highlights, maybe six or seven depending on how generously you count them.

I'd be interested in seeing what the xG is for the game. Could be absolutely anything.

https://footystats.org/england/swindon-town-fc-vs-gillingham-fc-h2h-stats Footystats has it as 1.31 vs 1.85 which feels generous to us?

https://theathletic.com/football/game/plays/gillingham-vs-swindon-town/pakpswevZw4Aw717/ The Athletic 2.45 vs 0.95 which is a bit generous to them!

The sheer amount xG varies by source shows that whilst it's a good idea, it's a long way from being a mature stat!

[The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey]

Hitting the woodwork counts as off target

[theakston2k]

Agree Theakston. It does certainly look better and with the right management and being allowed to sign a few key midfielders and more solid defenders in the summer it could be a lot better.

Yep, but problem is do we see that happening or is it more likely to be Gunning in charge and just more of the same?

What summed us up last night was equalising in the 4th minute of stoppage time and then still almost throwing it away with the last kick of the game. A bit of quality and experience in key areas and stuff like this just wouldn’t happen on such a regular basis but for 2 seasons we’ve refused to address it.

[Nemo]

Hitting the woodwork counts as off target

If it bounces away definitely, but the one that bounces down and - let's be honest - in?

Even without that there are four clear shots on target.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey]

Yep, but problem is do we see that happening or is it more likely to be Gunning in charge and just more of the same?

What summed us up last night was equalising in the 4th minute of stoppage time and then still almost throwing it away with the last kick of the game. A bit of quality and experience in key areas and stuff like this just wouldn’t happen on such a regular basis but for 2 seasons we’ve refused to address it.

All very Accrington

[Bob's Orange]

If it bounces away definitely, but the one that bounces down and - let's be honest - in?

Even without that there are four clear shots on target.

The comms last night (I Had the Gills lads) suggested that a shot cleared or blocked by a defender doesn't count as a shot on target which I never knew and I guess this means that a shot on target is only one that is going into the goal, but saved by the goalkeeper.

Below is the terminology from PaddyPower (They use OPTA stats so I assume is legit)

"Shots that are blocked by another player, who is not the last line of defence, are not deemed to be shots on target. Shots that hit any part of the frame around the goal are not counted as shots on target, unless the ball subsequently goes into the back of the net and is officially awarded as a goal."

Although, in the example of the shots being cleared off the line, take the Glatzel one for example that was cleared by Hutton, would that be classed as a shot on target or not?

[Nemo]

In that case they surely are the last line of defence so it would count? A clearance off the line not being a shot on target would be a bit farcical!

[adje]

Hitting the woodwork counts as off target

And rightly so. Hate it when commentators say"it beat the keeper". Not if it doesn't hit the back of the net

[Bob's Orange]

In that case they surely are the last line of defence so it would count? A clearance off the line not being a shot on target would be a bit farcical!

Yeah seems you are right according to this;

https://www.statsperform.com/opta-event-definitions/#:~:text=a%20dangerous%20position.-,Shot%20on%20Target,Also%20See%20%27Shot%20Off%20Target.

"A deliberate attempt to score that is on target. Includes all Goals being scored and shots on target saved by the Goalkeeper.

It also includes shots on target that are Blocked by a last line defending player, preventing the ball from entering the Goal."

[Cookie]

The last minute one was a deflection off Brewitt from the corner so I assume doesn't count. All the others were woodwork so don't count except the soft header which should count along with the two goals. I make it 3 shots for the Gills.

Footystats xG has 1.31 Gills and 1.85 Swindon which seems about right to me.

[Nemo]

Footystats xG has 1.31 Gills and 1.85 Swindon which seems about right to me.

https://theathletic.com/football/game/plays/gillingham-vs-swindon-town/pakpswevZw4Aw717/

The Athletic have it 2.45 v 0.95. I like the idea of XG but the different models vary so wildly it's hard to take much from it!

[The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey]

Yeah seems you are right according to this;

https://www.statsperform.com/opta-event-definitions/#:~:text=a%20dangerous%20position.-,Shot%20on%20Target,Also%20See%20%27Shot%20Off%20Target.

"A deliberate attempt to score that is on target. Includes all Goals being scored and shots on target saved by the Goalkeeper.

It also includes shots on target that are Blocked by a last line defending player, preventing the ball from entering the Goal."

So what stats do bookies use if you have a bet on a player having ‘x’ number of shots on target?

[Peter Venkman]

Some thoughts from Gills fans.

Thought Swindon looked fairly decent, if the footballing gods had been with them they could have won that scoring four or five. But we threw our bodies on the line, literally, two incredible goal line clearances, Ogie getting smashed stopping a certain goal and they still managed to waste a couple of presentable opportunities.

How did he save that!?
Should have won, could have lost - but at least it was entertaining.

Amazing save with last touch of the game from their keeper
 
Just when you think we've ground out an undeserved win we go and concede a late, late goal and blow two points. Even then we had two chances to snatch it again, the save from their keeper with the last touch of the game is absolutely stunning.

What a save at the end what could have been.
If that wasn’t one of the best games that I have seen for a long time it is up there.
Entertaining from start to finish, well played boys and we move on

Think a draw was the right result; a win might have papered over the cracks for us. Some incredible last ditch blocks / saves / misses in the game from both teams

Gills defense take a huge amount of credit to keep us in the game. Having got back into the game I hoped we could have gone on to win that.

Absolutely knackered after watching that. Fuck knows how the players are feeling. That match had everything second half.

First half was a bit frustrating but not dull. Could have been embarrassing if they’d taken their chances though,
Second half was a good end-to-end game, with loads of missed chances, goal-line clearances and shoddy defending, mixed with some quality. Hurtado has to start next game.

a draw is most probably the fair result, but how sweet would have been to score that third, even if had bee an own goal

Swindon attacked with pace and look a decent side.

Disappointed but not downhearted. Great starting atmosphere with a belting rendition of Last Waltz. Gills now customary amble into the game letting the opponentsset the pace. Big gaps in the middle for Swindon to exploit as we struggled to make anything happen. Solid in defence but it was clear they were going to concede eventually.

Much as it pains me to say it, I thought Swindon were very good. They knew we would make mistakes in midfield and moved the ball quickly. The first goal was a classic example: Coleman turned into trouble, one pass and McGurk had space to run at the last defender and score easily. The more stretched the game became in the second half, the more problems they caused us. And they kept throwing players forward - including the keeper for the corner just before they equalised. We can't really claim to have deserved all three points after needing a last-ditch tackle from Ogie and two goal-line clearances.

Entertaining match & an enjoyable watch. On the balance of play & chances created, a fair result. Might have won, could easily have lost.

Swindon were a lot better than I thought, given their recent record. In fact, they looked very similar to us today - dangerous when attacking but open and a liability defensively, but what a save from their keeper at the end. That brilliance saves the three points for them just as much as Ogie’s immense goal saving tackle at 0-1 did for us.

Over the 90, 2-2 was fair - but it could have been 5-5 with us clearing three from the line from them but us also hitting the post, bar, possibly having one go over the line and two offside goals (I’d like to see them again), but on the balance of the last 20, we were well on top and should have seen the game out, if not extended our lead and won the game comfortably as we did at Notts County, but we let them back into it with the sucker blow when it looked like they had fizzled out, so all in, two points very much dropped.

Very much felt like a defeat for me last night. After coming back from a goal down, I really thought we had it in the bag. Of course I want to be entertained, but I also want my team to win. I'm fed up with dropping points to teams below us in the league at home.

First half was turgid from us, we had a rather large gap on our right hand side in particular with how high Hutton was playing compared to Masterson not coming across and we were punished a couple of times as a result. McGuirk was very good for them and we have to be thankful that Shad put his body on the line the way he did at the end of the first half.

I have to say im gutted to only get a draw.

[adje]

Understandable I guess but a lot of people went "a bit early" on here when the second went in but maybe Gunning has instilled a bit of fight in us. Talking to a lot of Gills fans, reckoning we were by far the better side. Certainly not pathetic,surely? From what I've seen I would be tempted to say I wish Gunning had got the nod instead of Flynn

[TailBetweenLegs]

Not sure i agree Adje, we had just as exciting games under Flynn and it was when the players were all injured etc the shit hit the fan and the downward spiral continued. It's just my opinion of course but the points dropped the last 3 games hi would say everyone is down to some awful game management from the manager.