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Author Topic: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs  (Read 1545 times)
Robinz

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« on: Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 09:11:33 »

Raad an article in the Swindon Advert and the reality set in...
It seems very unlikely that we can now even qualify for the play offs.
Just went through the fixtures until the end of the season and it does not look good.
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Nemo
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« Reply #1 on: Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 09:17:11 »

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/league-two/

Statistical gigabrains at FiveThirtyEight give us a 24% chance to make the playoffs and a 10% chance to go up.

We've made it difficult for ourselves, but it's not impossible. We'll see, you have to have a bit of hope or what's the point frankly?
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Bob's Orange
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« Reply #2 on: Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 09:21:43 »

If we can somehow mirror the end of last season then we are in with a chance. If we can use the win at Salford and follow that up with 3 points at home to Harrogate then we can use that as a catalyst to go on a cracking run. Yes the fixture list looks tricky but there are no sides in this division that look daunting and with RHM back from suspension, Jonny Williams hopefully back from his concussion protocol absence as well as Joe Tomlinson coming in to add balance down the left I think there is a lot to look forward to.

Don't forget we still have to unleash the Milan Misun of 2023, Reece Devine to make his intervention!
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Pookemon

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« Reply #3 on: Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 09:25:21 »

Raad an article in the Swindon Advert and the reality set in...
It seems very unlikely that we can now even qualify for the play offs.
Just went through the fixtures until the end of the season and it does not look good.

It's unlikely that's for sure.   Our home form is attrocious.  20th over last 6 games against some shite opposition.
The run of games since mansfield against primarily mid table or below teams should have seen us kick on but the opposite happened.    Can't defend and don't create much.

Yes if we get a run of wins of course we can scrape in there but it's looking unlikely as we don't have as good a team as last year.
« Last Edit: Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 09:29:33 by Pookemon » Logged
The Million Pound Man

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« Reply #4 on: Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 09:30:21 »

Its in our hands, but Salford really needs to be the turning point and Saturday is a must win.

We still have to play Stockport, Carlisle, Mansfield and Bradford at home and Walsall away. A lot of 6 pointers there.

Now is the time to go on a run, something we havent really done all season.

Unlikely, not impossible.

Personally ive written this season off after the shambolic January transfer window, hoping to see some green shoots in the coming months and Morris given a window and full preseason to properly put his stamp on things. A change in the transfer policy is needed in the summer if were to do anything next year- a spine of big, strong, physical blokes is needed to compliment technical players in the basement. 
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horlock07

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« Reply #5 on: Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 09:45:21 »

When did we last have decent home form, it feels like we have been dreadful at home for a few seasons now?
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Dr Pierre Chang
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« Reply #6 on: Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 10:00:33 »

When did we last have decent home form, it feels like we have been dreadful at home for a few seasons now?
Under Wellens in the 19/20 season which was cut short. 13 wins from 19 in the league which was joint highest with Crewe.
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Nemo
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« Reply #7 on: Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 10:02:25 »

When did we last have decent home form, it feels like we have been dreadful at home for a few seasons now?

As of now, we're 15th on the home only table and 8th on the away only table.

Last season we were 11th on the home table and top on the away table.

2020/21 League One we were 20th on the home table and 21st on the away table, so nominally better at home but shit at both

2019/20 League Two (Wellens) we were third on both tables (and Champions, go figure)

2018/19 League Two we were 17th on home table, 7th away

2017/18 League Two we were 15th home, 3rd away

2016/17 League One we were 22nd home, 19th away

2015/16 League One we were 16th on both

2014/15 League One we were 4th on both


To be honest this took much longer than I was expecting to look back, but the last time we were clearly better home than away was 2013/14 when we were 4th in League One Home form, 16th away form. To give you an idea of how much has changed since then, Wolves won League One that year, Kevin MacDonald started the season as manager and our top goalscorer was Nile Ranger...

Edit: Alternatively, what Chang said Cheesy
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The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey

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« Reply #8 on: Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 10:05:57 »

Iíve written this season off. Morris needs to hone his style on the players ready for next season in the remaining fixtures. Hopefully thereís not the usual massive squad churn. Iím convinced that 3 or 4 quality additions will see us competing next season. Would like to keep Austin, Williams and McCreachan if possible - think quite a few of the others will still be contracted.

Maybe a lot depends on whatever Whelan reckons is coming our way in the next week or 2.
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4D
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« Reply #9 on: Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 10:07:50 »

Strange how we are generally better away from home in the last 10 years. Can't be many clubs can say the same.
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Batch
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« Reply #10 on: Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 10:12:56 »

Nothing in our form says we'll do it (4pts from 15). And yet we are just 4 points from the playoffs.

I think there are too many others in the mix to give us anything other than an outside chance, but get 2 or 3 wins in a row and its back on.

Frustratingly close.
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« Reply #11 on: Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 10:15:58 »

Strange how we are generally better away from home in the last 10 years. Can't be many clubs can say the same.

"Fortress County Ground" seems as long ago as "we've never lost at Wembley"
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DiV
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« Reply #12 on: Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 10:19:29 »

I mean we are a massive 4 points adrift.
Definitely mathematically impossible
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ChalkyWhiteIsGod
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« Reply #13 on: Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 10:22:19 »

We're not that far off, we could be back in a play off position with a couple of wins.

The problem though is seeing us string the results together with the thin bare squad and litany of issues with our defensive organisation.

Even if we get in the play offs, I can't see us being good enough to compete in them.

January fucked us. Some might even say Sandro has a wee bit of blood on his hands.
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JoeMezz

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« Reply #14 on: Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 10:51:49 »

Its in our hands, but Salford really needs to be the turning point and Saturday is a must win.

We still have to play Stockport, Carlisle, Mansfield and Bradford at home and Walsall away. A lot of 6 pointers there.

Now is the time to go on a run, something we havent really done all season.

Unlikely, not impossible.

Personally ive written this season off after the shambolic January transfer window, hoping to see some green shoots in the coming months and Morris given a window and full preseason to properly put his stamp on things. A change in the transfer policy is needed in the summer if were to do anything next year- a spine of big, strong, physical blokes is needed to compliment technical players in the basement. 

The last paragraph is the best description Iíve seen in here in ages. You wonít improve youngsters with no direction. Serious rethink in the summer required.
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