If we use 75 points as the Magic number for 7th spot we need 33 points from 17 games (51) win 10 draw 3 lose 6 or win 9 draw 6 lose 2 (highly unlikely)
Bristol Rovers went on that fantastic run coming from nowhere but they brought in quite a players in the January window to strengthen their squad......
I can't see a team needing 75pts to make get into 7th place. If 75pts was the target, that would mean Stockport (currently in 7th) would need to maintain around a 1.8ppg form in order to finish where they are now...ironically reading the "Last 10" chart they have a 2.0ppg form! It certainly means Stockport can probably afford to drop form a smidge, maybe even as low as 1.5ppg and still finish in that final PO position.
Only 4 teams in the division are on a 1.8ppg form or better (from the last 10 games: Stockport, Colchester, Carlisle, Sutton). We can probably discount Colchester, who on 31 games have 34pts so even if they maintained their very good run of form (2.0ppg) would only manage 64pts and at best would probably miss out on POs by a couple of wins, possibly a case of too little too late. That leaves only 3 teams on 1.8ppg or better. If maintained Stockport would finish on 79pts and would probably see them finish in 4th place, maybe 3rd if Carlisle's form were to dip. Carlisle (1.9ppg) would finish on 82pts and possibly see them hold their current position in 3rd or maybe 2nd if Orient continue their dip in form. Sutton (1.8ppg and in a similar pts situation to Town but much better form) would finish on 70pts and I think that could be the ballpark figure for finishing 7th. Poss 69pts or 71pts. But not 75pts. It seems too high and the league is poorer than that overall.
Let's consider Town's form, which in the last 10 is poor at 1.1ppg. Maintaining that form, they would finish on about 61pts. Which of course is not good enough. A form of 1.6ppg would see them finish on 69pts which might be enough if others form were to dip but that could rely on GD and is pushing it a bit. A form of 1.7ppg though would see them finish on 71pts which I think would be enough to clinch 7th. It's certainly a big ask to see a 55% improvement on Town's current form, from next Tues onwards though! If they went on an unbeaten WDWD form at 2ppg rate (an 82% improvement effectively overnight...) then Town would finish on 76pts which would most likely result in a comfortable 4th place finish.
It certainly makes the versus Sutton match a "must win" on Tuesday if Town are serious about making the POs at a minimum so that match does become a PO contender "six pointer".
Anything written above was all a quick calc so apologies if any errors. Here's a "Final Table" based on all the teams current pts and applying ppg (from their last 10 games) form using the chart you posted. If nothing else it is interesting to see where each team would/might finish. Currently Town would finish about 15th...which I don't think any of us would accept.
League Two PPG Final Table==========================================
Team Played Pts PPG Pts Gain Prj Pts==========================================
Stevenage 28 57 1.7 30.6 88
Leyton Orient 31 63 1.3 19.5 83
Carlisle United 30 52 1.9 30.4 82
==========================================
Stockport County 29 45 2.0 34 79
Salford City 30 48 1.7 27.2 75
Mansfield Town 29 46 1.6 27.2 73
Northampton Town 29 50 1.3 22.1 72==========================================
Walsall 27 41 1.6 30.4 71Sutton United 30 41 1.8 28.8 70Doncaster Rovers 29 43 1.5 25.5 69
Bradford City 28 43 1.2 21.6 65
Colchester United 31 34 2.0 30 64
AFC Wimbledon 29 40 1.4 23.8 64
Tranmere Rovers 30 41 1.4 22.4 63
SWINDON TOWN 29 42 1.1 18.7 61 Newport County 28 30 1.6 28.8 59
Grimsby Town 26 33 1.0 20 53
Barrow 30 42 0.7 11.2 53
Harrogate Town 28 27 1.4 25.2 52
Hartlepool United 30 26 1.4 22.4 48
Crewe Alexandra 28 34 0.7 12.6 47 Gillingham 28 24 1.1 19.8 44==========================================
Crawley Town 27 25 0.9 17.1 42 Rochdale 30 23 0.6 9.6 33
