Bradford v Swindon

[ChalkyWhiteIsGod]

I thought we were brilliant for about the first 14 minutes, then Bradford got their act together and we never really recovered. Watching the pressure we were piling on early doors, it did have the feel that if we didn't score soon we'd probably regret it.

Poor showing after that and fortunate they gifted us with a penalty.

Still, a good point overall.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey]

You thought we were poor in the second half?

[singingiiiffy]

away to a team in the playoffs:

Possession
Home  56%   Away  44%

Shots
Home  14   Away   17

Shots on Target
Home 5   Away   8

Corners
Home  4   Away  10

that is a deserved point as a minimum.

[magicroundabout]

I thought second half we were well deserved for a goal. We looked a completely different team. Enjoyed watching that

[The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey]

According to XG stats we give up more clear cut chances than any other club in L2 which is a bit concerning.

According to data from The Analyst, Swindon have given up the  highest open play xG in League Two, having conceded 14.19 across their 16 matches.

This stat shows in very basic terms that there is a problem defensively for Town as they are consistently conceding high quality chances, however it does not show what is going wrong in their structure to cause them to give away these opportunities.

To attempt to diagnose what frequent problems that existed in the Swindon defence, I decided to watch back every goal that Swindon have conceded this season to see if there were any patterns and themes to the goals opposition teams were scoring.

Chance Location   Volume
Left   3
Right   3
Centre   6
Goal type   Volume
Turnover/ transition/ counter attack   6
Set Piece   3
Error   1
Cross/ cutback   5
The things which came up frequently were that Swindon struggled defensively when they were not able to be in their set shape, two of the three set piece goals were conceded during the second phase, and four out of the five crosses were scored either in transition or in the second phase of the original cross.

When Swindon are able to keep their shape and defend in the positions they are comfortable in they rarely give away goals and chances, but when they aren’t allowed to be in position then they struggle.

Swindon have the second highest average possession in League Two with 59% and it is natural for a possession based team to concede more goals in moments of transition as opposition teams will rarely sustain attacks for long periods because they have fewer of these moments within games.

Swindon have conceded most of their goals originating from central areas, but this is slightly deceptive as that has changed as the season has gone on.

It would appear that area of weakness has been solved in the last few games but instead Swindon have become more exposed out wide, possibly due to the higher positions the full-backs have been taking up.

Prior to Tyreik Wright’s opener for Bradford, the previous four goals Town had conceded were all scored by third man runs by players who were not the striker in a situation where Swindon had not been able to regroup defensively.





This shows the centre backs have more or less done their jobs defensively as the last striker to have scored against Swindon was Ryan Taylor for Grimsby Town, but the players in front of them have not been recovering well enough to prevent midfielders and wide players from scoring.

There are two potential explanations for that, it could either be because of a lack of effort in recovery from players in forward areas or that Swindon's rest defence is putting players in positions which make it difficult to effectively get back and stop the opposition.

Their current shape when Swindon have the ball creates a four-man box in the middle of the pitch where the two centre backs and the two deeper midfielders are the deepest players and puts Swindon in a good position to stop counter attacks coming up the middle.

In doing this, it creates space out wide for teams to attack and this has been causing problems as it is in these situations where goals are coming from.

However, football is all about compromise as you will never be able to cover off the whole pitch with 11 players, so if Lindsey believes that playing this way is going to lead to his side scoring more goals than they concede then it is a risk worth taking.

However, if it continues to be an achilles heel that costs them then Lindsey needs to look to to strike a balance between getting players forward to be creative and score goals, but also being aware of space behind them and being in the right places for when the ball does change hands.

[ChalkyWhiteIsGod]

You thought we were poor in the second half?

Overall ranking the last 75 minutes, we were poor. We did improve after the break on the 2nd quarter though and seemed to calm in defense, but we didn't really look that threatening second half. Nothing like we did at the start of the game.

[ChalkyWhiteIsGod]

According to XG stats we give up more clear cut chances than any other club in L2 which is a bit concerning.

According to data from The Analyst, Swindon have given up the  highest open play xG in League Two, having conceded 14.19 across their 16 matches.

This stat shows in very basic terms that there is a problem defensively for Town as they are consistently conceding high quality chances, however it does not show what is going wrong in their structure to cause them to give away these opportunities.

I've said a few times I'm surprised we haven't been pumped by 7 or 8 goals on a few occasions and been shot down as being overly negative, but glad to know that statistics out there prop up that I'm not totally mental.

The one positive thing is, the level of attacking we're up against is also a bit shit.

[Batch]

Overall ranking the last 75 minutes, we were poor. We did improve after the break on the 2nd quarter though and seemed to calm in defense, but we didn't really look that threatening second half. Nothing like we did at the start of the game.

interesting. Were you at the match.

Wondering if it looked better on TV, which is how I watched

[DMC]

I've said a few times I'm surprised we haven't been pumped by 7 or 8 goals on a few occasions and been shot down as being overly negative, but glad to know that statistics out there prop up that I'm not totally mental.

The one positive thing is, the level of attacking we're up against is also a bit shit.

I would love to know what games you think we would or should have been pumped in. As for last night i am in shock you think we were poor in that last 75 minutes. We created as many if not more than they did, wakeling alone had 3 great chances, Aguiar missed an absolute sitter too

[oxonrobin]

To attempt to diagnose what frequent problems that existed in the Swindon defence, I decided to watch back every goal that Swindon have conceded this season to see if there were any patterns and themes to the goals opposition teams were scoring.

Must have taken a while. Thanks for the write up. 

[TheDukeOfBanbury]

Need to be more ruthless in front of goal. The period after Blake- Tracey went off up and until halftime we were on the back foot and if I conceded another we would have lost the game.
Aguiar once again a passenger, Darcy touched the ball more times when he was on and took the game further up field. Still yet to see what Shade brings, although there is a player in there and I want to believe.
Keep banging on about seeing us at least one game when we go narrow with two up top - Jephcott and Wakeling.

Second half we were good, the character and belief was evident throughout.
Lindsey must surely now have passed the test and be accepted by all Swindon fans.

An excellent performance overall, more significant a decent point against fancied opposition.

[dalumpimunki]

According to XG stats we give up more clear cut chances than any other club in L2 which is a bit concerning.

According to data from The Analyst, Swindon have given up the  highest open play xG in League Two, having conceded 14.19 across their 16 matches.

This stat shows in very basic terms that there is a problem defensively for Town as they are consistently conceding high quality chances, however it does not show what is going wrong in their structure to cause them to give away these opportunities.

To attempt to diagnose what frequent problems that existed in the Swindon defence, I decided to watch back every goal that Swindon have conceded this season to see if there were any patterns and themes to the goals opposition teams were scoring.

Chance Location   Volume
Left   3
Right   3
Centre   6
Goal type   Volume
Turnover/ transition/ counter attack   6
Set Piece   3
Error   1
Cross/ cutback   5
The things which came up frequently were that Swindon struggled defensively when they were not able to be in their set shape, two of the three set piece goals were conceded during the second phase, and four out of the five crosses were scored either in transition or in the second phase of the original cross.

When Swindon are able to keep their shape and defend in the positions they are comfortable in they rarely give away goals and chances, but when they aren’t allowed to be in position then they struggle.

Swindon have the second highest average possession in League Two with 59% and it is natural for a possession based team to concede more goals in moments of transition as opposition teams will rarely sustain attacks for long periods because they have fewer of these moments within games.

Swindon have conceded most of their goals originating from central areas, but this is slightly deceptive as that has changed as the season has gone on.

It would appear that area of weakness has been solved in the last few games but instead Swindon have become more exposed out wide, possibly due to the higher positions the full-backs have been taking up.

Prior to Tyreik Wright’s opener for Bradford, the previous four goals Town had conceded were all scored by third man runs by players who were not the striker in a situation where Swindon had not been able to regroup defensively.





This shows the centre backs have more or less done their jobs defensively as the last striker to have scored against Swindon was Ryan Taylor for Grimsby Town, but the players in front of them have not been recovering well enough to prevent midfielders and wide players from scoring.

There are two potential explanations for that, it could either be because of a lack of effort in recovery from players in forward areas or that Swindon's rest defence is putting players in positions which make it difficult to effectively get back and stop the opposition.

Their current shape when Swindon have the ball creates a four-man box in the middle of the pitch where the two centre backs and the two deeper midfielders are the deepest players and puts Swindon in a good position to stop counter attacks coming up the middle.

In doing this, it creates space out wide for teams to attack and this has been causing problems as it is in these situations where goals are coming from.

However, football is all about compromise as you will never be able to cover off the whole pitch with 11 players, so if Lindsey believes that playing this way is going to lead to his side scoring more goals than they concede then it is a risk worth taking.

However, if it continues to be an achilles heel that costs them then Lindsey needs to look to to strike a balance between getting players forward to be creative and score goals, but also being aware of space behind them and being in the right places for when the ball does change hands.

Do they have a theory why, despite that, we've conceded fewer than about 80% of league two?

[Bob's Orange]

Do they have a theory why, despite that, we've conceded fewer than about 80% of league two?

Because our keeper is shit hot?

[singingiiiffy]

What isn’t clear from the Football Authorities, is the ‘threshold’ they employ to determine an ‘incident’.

In Civil Law it is the ‘Balance of Probability’, the mythical 51%. They would have to be satisfied that there was reasonable intent.

Criminal Law operates on’ Beyond Reasonable Doubt’, which is a vey high threshold.

Looking at the pictures/footage/position of the officials, I would assume that it would be difficult to say with authority that it was a handball.

Again a defendant is usually given the ‘benefit of the doubt’.

I think the information available would make it difficult to say with absolute certainty it was hand ball.

Even the lay courts such as the Magistrate’s Courts, provide judgements to explain the criteria they have employed to determine a matter.

Referee’s at this level are paid a hefty fee (far more than Magistrates get for attendance), and it seems as though they should be able to justify their decisions in a way that fairness can be seen to be done.

Next level penalty analysis from the Bradford forum. 

[oxonrobin]

Next level penalty analysis from the Bradford forum. 

Wow, that is a bit over-the-top. I think it would probably go something like.

Judge: Please outline your reasons for the decision in question in laypersons terms.

Referee: Well your honour, from my position at the time, it looked like it could have been a handball. My assistant also thought the same from his vantage point, and let me know immediately. I gave the penalty after a couple of seconds, as on balance my instinct was that would be the right decision.

Judge: I see, that seems perfectly reasonable. Case dismissed [gavel noise]