'Murica

[Hunk]

If the popular vote got the President elected I'd say Biden wins this at a canter. But its not a given as 4 years ago proved. I still think Biden wins, but I can't see it being anything but close

[JBZ]

Biden will win - some interesting legal wrangles will follow.

[Abrahammer]

The polls weren’t wrong last time, they had Hilary ahead nationally and that proved right in the National vote.  Trump won by a statically fluke of about 70,000 odd votes across 3 swing states.

State pollsters underestimated a certain niche working class demographic in these states, adjustments were made and polling was bang on in the 2018 mid terms.

Anyway that’s a long winded way of saying the polls won’t be far off this time so it’s a relatively comfortable Biden victory for me Clive.

[pauld]

Even if Biden does win, it will take a long time, if ever, to undo the damage that Trump and the far right of the Republican party have done to American politics. Much of that damage pre-dates Trump, you can trace it back to Newt Gingrich, the Tea Party etc, Trump was just a useful figurehead to build a coalition between the Republican far right and the seriously unhinged neo-Nazis, militias etc. The armed lunatics, fascist street gangs and conspiracy theorists that form his base will not simply shrug their shoulders and accept a democratic defeat at the polls. The genie of American fascism is not going back in the bottle any time soon, and the damage to American democracy may well be permanent.

[RobertT]

I think it's most likely Biden will win.  Certainly the Trump period has shocked enough Democrats into noticing they had completely abandoned their core voters of old - I am not sure to what extent yet, but Biden being nominated is the first reaction to that.  Unlike the Labour Party with it's Corbyn approach, they swiftly avoided being see as pandering to the extreme of their party.  Biden has also picked-up some of the language used by Bannon, which was the pre cursor to Trump - basically they got someone in who had name recognition and chucked a few policy ideas his way.  Things like Buy American have taken off a bit.

The long term direction is hard to judge.  Healthcare has moved a lot, in a short space of time, which stuns me given how people react to me when discussing the NHS just a couple of years ago.  Not sure they are all the way there yet, but I reckon a Majority in all three Houses will enable them to push a much more radical (for them) agenda on that front.

I can see the Trade stuff lingering post Trump - I don't think any unravelling of the tariff's will go down well in the Mid West & Rust Belt areas which Biden will need to keep onside.

Assuming Trump loses, the Republican Party is going to be fun to watch for a while - lord knows which direction they go.  I don't think the Tea Party would really have wanted Trump, but he gave them a way to get some of their ideas to the forefront.  If he loses badly, they may lose a lot of their steam in the Party.

[Flashheart]

Trump was quite fortunate last time and there's a greater gap in the polls now. Biden to win I reckon, followed by a shed load of shithousery from Trump and the rest of them. I can't see him going quietly.

[Batch]

candidates are 74 and 77 - with an average life expectancy of 78 I'm not sure USA will get a full term

intended to be a seriously point

[RobertT]

Wednesday is going to be fun, whoever wins.

[RobertT]

candidates are 74 and 77 - with an average life expectancy of 78 I'm not sure USA will get a full term

intended to be a seriously point

Which is why both VP's have been important picks.  Pence brings the crazy Church goers to the table - they vote knowing Trump being banished or dead gives them him.

Harris being picked was someone who would keep the left of the party in lock step without being too radical to scare off the middle of the road swing voters.  It's a clever choice that meant they didn't have the same issues they had with Clinton - you either loved or hate her and her running mate was an unknown.

[Ardiles]

candidates are 74 and 77 - with an average life expectancy of 78 I'm not sure USA will get a full term

intended to be a seriously point

Point taken, but the life expectancy of a 74 year old or a 77 year old is considerably more than 78 (which averages in everyone who died younger than that). Odds are that both Biden and Trump will still be with us in 2024.

[Abrahammer]

Not sure they are all the way there yet, but I reckon a Majority in all three Houses will enable them to push a much more radical (for them) agenda on that front.

The interesting side story is the Senate as it could easily swing back to the Dems, the other other is already comfortably theirs.  As you say if you get your hands on all 3 houses it makes life so much easier to get your polices implemented

candidates are 74 and 77 - with an average life expectancy of 78 I'm not sure USA will get a full term

intended to be a seriously point

I think we are only seeing Biden run because of his general popularity and role as elder party statemans.  He is essentially running as a favour to the party in order to get Trump out.  Should he win i’d expect him to only serve one term and then let Harris have a run next time out

[Batch]

candidates are 74 and 77 - with an average life expectancy of 78 I'm not sure USA will get a full term

intended to be a seriously point

Which is why both VP's have been important picks.  Pence brings the crazy Church goers to the table - they vote knowing Trump being banished or dead gives them him.

Harris being picked was someone who would keep the left of the party in lock step without being too radical to scare off the middle of the road swing voters.  It's a clever choice that meant they didn't have the same issues they had with Clinton - you either loved or hate her and her running mate was an unknown.

it's probably just me, but not seen much attention on the VP role here. I could have named pence, but not Harris!

actually that's not true, I do remember her getting the nod.

I guess my attentions have been more covid centric

[Ardiles]

I think we are only seeing Biden run because of his general popularity and role as elder party statemans.  He is essentially running as a favour to the party in order to get Trump out.  Should he win i’d expect him to only serve one term and then let Harris have a run next time out

Definitely.  Biden would only ever be a one term President.  There's no way even the US electorate would seriously consider backing an 82 year old for another 4 year term in 2024.

[donkey]

They need to disband the Electoral College system.  It's a relic of a bygone age.

[McGurk's Missus]

They need to disband the Electoral College system.  It's a relic of a bygone age.

The same could be said of our system too but I guess this is not the UK Politics fred.