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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 745802 times)
pauld
Aaron Aardvark

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« Reply #7710 on: Friday, March 26, 2021, 16:38:16 »

This is where i struggle though, deaths and hospital admissions are going down week on week surely? I don't go to deep into everything because i am thick as fuck but surely if admissions and deaths are down and positive cases are down it's ok to be positive and say cases are down
They're three different indicators: cases, hospital admissions and deaths. It doesn't help to conflate the three.
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Shrivvy Road

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« Reply #7711 on: Friday, March 26, 2021, 16:46:08 »

But are they all going down. I know that is not what we should automatically be basing opening up on and not suggesting it but i do get confused when the 3 are going down but people say well it's not as simple as that
« Last Edit: Friday, March 26, 2021, 16:53:08 by Shrivvy Road » Logged
Panda Paws

« Reply #7712 on: Friday, March 26, 2021, 17:01:48 »

At some point, the number of cases becomes irrelevant. Hospital admissions and deaths are the key metrics I think.

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Shrivvy Road

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« Reply #7713 on: Friday, March 26, 2021, 17:05:43 »

True i said the same elsewhere and those 2 things are also coming down i believe
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pauld
Aaron Aardvark

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« Reply #7714 on: Friday, March 26, 2021, 17:44:09 »

At some point, the number of cases becomes irrelevant. Hospital admissions and deaths are the key metrics I think.


I think you're largely right, that hospitalisations and deaths are more important factors than cases in absolute terms but that doesn't allow for
1) Lag: if deaths/hospitalisations were going down or flattening off and cases going up, that would be a cause for concern because it would mean the first two are likely to be about to start going back up again
2) Long COVID: sorry I know I keep saying this but it's not just a binary die/survive. And you can have debilitating life changing ongoing symptoms for months without needing to be hospitalised.

In broad brush terms, I'm minded to agree the direction of travel appears to be positive but as last summer showed it can easily flip back again. As Dean says "people say well it's not as simple as that" and that's probably because, well, it's not as simple as that.
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Batch
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« Reply #7715 on: Friday, March 26, 2021, 17:49:29 »

Is that 15 positive tests in Swindon?

yesterday's positive test total, just for that day.

Today's is 23.

@avds on twitter does some good number crunching on cases over the last 7 days.
« Last Edit: Friday, March 26, 2021, 18:04:11 by Batch » Logged

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Panda Paws

« Reply #7716 on: Friday, March 26, 2021, 17:50:49 »

But last summer, we didn't have a vaccine that stopped the majority of hospitalizations and deaths.

Your point on lag is moot if the vaccine is as efficacious as it appears. Cases going up does not equal hospitalizations and deaths going up on delay because the vaccine literally stops that happening?
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horlock07

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« Reply #7717 on: Friday, March 26, 2021, 18:03:53 »

Missus getting her jab middle of next week, she is only 38 soi they seem to be getting on with it!

Funny how all the people the sceptics insisted were dying "with Covid, not from Covid" seem to have miraculously stopped dying from other causes now there is so much less Covid around.
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pauld
Aaron Aardvark

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« Reply #7718 on: Friday, March 26, 2021, 18:05:10 »

But last summer, we didn't have a vaccine that stopped the majority of hospitalizations and deaths.

Your point on lag is moot if the vaccine is as efficacious as it appears. Cases going up does not equal hospitalizations and deaths going up on delay because the vaccine literally stops that happening?
Let's hope so. Look, I think you're probably right, I think we're on the cusp of really properly getting on top of this thing and putting it behind us, I just want to be cautious about not leaping to conclusions too quickly and opening up too much too quickly then finding out some of the assumptions we made were flawed and we're back at square one again. The thing that really concerns me is the prospect of some of the new variants that at the moment aren't really that prevalent, but are there in the community, turning out to be more resistant to the vaccine (and there is *some* evidence that some of them may be). If we open up too quickly and it turns out that it was lockdown that was keeping the new variants down not the vaccine and they then get a real foothold, we could be right back to where we started.
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donkey
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« Reply #7719 on: Friday, March 26, 2021, 19:00:26 »

Missus getting her jab middle of next week, she is only 38 soi they seem to be getting on with it!

Good news. Had mine yesterday, a bit tired today, but that's not necessarily the jab. AZ, btw.
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jayohaitchenn
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« Reply #7720 on: Saturday, March 27, 2021, 13:32:03 »

Had my second jab yesterday.
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Bob's Orange

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« Reply #7721 on: Tuesday, March 30, 2021, 12:59:25 »

With the nice weather it was always likely to happen.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-56575135
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we've been to Aberdeen, we hate the Hibs, they make us spew up, so make some noise,
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4D
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« Reply #7722 on: Tuesday, March 30, 2021, 13:37:38 »

Youngsters who don't give a shit shocker. Why can't the scumbags take their crap home with them too?
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Bob's Orange

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« Reply #7723 on: Tuesday, March 30, 2021, 14:06:49 »

Youngsters who don't give a shit shocker. Why can't the scumbags take their crap home with them too?

This was my bugbear last summer. My stroll around Battersea Park was always 'ruined' by having to view all the rubbish that people had left behind. No amount of tutting or shaking of head could fix it.
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we've been to Aberdeen, we hate the Hibs, they make us spew up, so make some noise,
the gorgie boys, for Hearts in Europe.
horlock07

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« Reply #7724 on: Tuesday, March 30, 2021, 14:15:10 »

This was my bugbear last summer. My stroll around Battersea Park was always 'ruined' by having to view all the rubbish that people had left behind. No amount of tutting or shaking of head could fix it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cumbria-56562031
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