So, what’s stopping putting a time limit on the backstop - say, 5 years. …………...I know trade deals can take a very long time to negotiate but 5 years should be enough if the bones are already negotiated.
Allow me to give my take on the question (as neutrally as possible for a Remainer)
1. The Single Market shares trade regulations agreed by its members who also enjoy tariff-free access throughout.
2. The EU protects its Single Market against Third Countries, either on WTO Rules or through trade agreements (eg Canada, Norway etc). Trading nations (or Unions) use borders to control imports vis tariffs and regulatory compliance.
3. A transition period will enable a substantial continuation of the status quo (especially for business) for the UK and the EU even though the UK becomes a third country on Brexit.
4. The UK will then decide (will it really!) what type of Brexit it wants. If it remains close to the EU then border arrangements should be capable of streamlining (eg Switzerland, Norway etc). If it prefers max independence, then it can expect a much more limited "trade agreement" (eg Canada) and fully effective border controls will be necessary to protect the SM (and probably vice versa). There is presently no working system of "away from border" control elsewhere in the world.
Backstop Time Limit?
The UK can choose whatever approach it likes and prepare accordingly BUT
the EU will not be taking 100% tarrif-free goods via the UK from China or Malaysia or the USA etc IF it chooses a higher level of regulatory and tariff divergence from the EU in an eventual Trade Deal.Not now (on
No Deal), not in 2 years (after a
Transition) and not Ever (after a 5 year backstop).
In a nutshell, if the UK chooses to Brexit and with a substantive degree of independence, it is the integrity of the Single Market v the integrity of the UK inc. NI market.
Perhaps there can be a technology solution but what if it didn't work? The SM will not have non-compliant and tariff-avoiding imports through the Irish border. I also understand that the UK as well as the EU and all countries are expected to effectively control the flow of imports generally anyway according to WTO rules.
My solution would be to take a referendum in NI to ascertain whether it's people would be willing to diverge from the UK and remain in the SM for trade purposes. I believe they would. If that were the case then the outsized DUP influence on Brexit would rightfully be consigned to the minority view I believe it to be. The EU:UK trade border would then be in the North Sea.
The alternative is that super Boris twists the EU arm and they accept the integrity of the UK market over their
own SM
or that there are breaches of the Good Friday Agreement.
The UK, Ireland and the EU need to work together on the border problem. No Deal is the worst possible outcome from a point of view of both trade and the island of Ireland, north and south.
