No Points Needed and Southampton Next Season

[Iffy's Onion Bhaji]

It's all set up for us beating Brighton even though that won't happen.

[jonny72]

Having performed an in depth analysis, I reckon 50 points will be enough for us to stay up.

Cheltenham, Hereford and Brighton are certainties for the drop barring a miracle of epic proportions (Brighton would need to win 5 of their last 8 games). So that leaves one open spot.

For Swindon to fill it (on 50 points) we'd need the five teams below us to all win 3 of their remaining games (or win 2 and draw another 3) which I can't see happening. So 2 more wins and we'll be safe.

[Crozzer]

52 points is pretty much the target for any season, so usually the requirement is less than 52.  I did a couple of calculations and came up with 50 or 51 to stay up.  So I agree with your estimate.

I think after the miracle Invincible goal we ended up on 52 points (I think) to stay up.  Teams have stayed up with 48 points.

Even though Yeovil won today, I can see them losing at home to Northampton on Tuesday night, and struggling into Div II..  Also, I don't know where the next points are coming from for Hartlepool. 

All Swindon had to do was to come up with a half decent performance today and we would have been almost out of it.

[jonny72]

I reckon it will be Carlisle joining the other 3, they have probably got the worst run in of the teams at the bottom.

I had a quick look at previous seasons and the big difference is the number of clubs still involved in the relegation battle, there is just no way every team will be able to pull something out of the bag so it could be a relatively low points total to stay up. Maybe less than 50 will do it.

[Reg Smeeton]

I reckon it will be Carlisle joining the other 3, they have probably got the worst run in of the teams at the bottom.

I had a quick look at previous seasons and the big difference is the number of clubs still involved in the relegation battle, there is just no way every team will be able to pull something out of the bag so it could be a relatively low points total to stay up. Maybe less than 50 will do it.

I'm not sure your analysis is very sound...atm the league table is skewed by several teams having games in hand...we're a point better off than 05/06...but that season most teams had played more or less 40 games or 41. We can drop no doubt about it...now luck will play a major part...injuries, dodgy refs etc...if planning, strategy etc had anything to do with it, we'd have taken a 0-0 at Yeovil and things would have looked comfortable.

[Rich Pullen]

now luck will play a major part...injuries, dodgy refs etc...

Such a cynic

[jonny72]

Based on form over the last 8 games it will end up like this:

20. Carlisle 49 pts
21. Yeovil 48 pts
22. Brighton 41 pts
23. Cheltenham 40 pts
24. Hereford 39 pts

[Reg Smeeton]

Based on form over the last 8 games it will end up like this:

20. Carlisle 49 pts
21. Yeovil 48 pts
22. Brighton 41 pts
23. Cheltenham 40 pts
24. Hereford 39 pts

Form goes out of the window a bit, at this stage of the season, what you want is a few games against mid table sides, with nothing to play for....namely right now, Stockport, Oldham, Huddersfield, Walsall...or games against teams that have already gone in the last 2 or 3 games.

What you don't want is local derbies, and 6 pointers. We've got the toughest run in, no easy games and an appalling record against the leagues seemingly poorer sides.

How do you explain we've taken 8 points off the top 4, but only 5 against the bottom 4.

Crewe is massive...I believe they're a bit more direct these days, but we haven't beaten them at the CG for over 10 years....Gradi's sides have just played through our weak midfield, and exploited dodgy defending on the counter.

[Spencer_White]

Gradi's sides have just played through our weak midfield, and exploited dodgy defending on the counter.

Anyone remmember losing to them a week after Scummers FA Cup? Played off the park in fact.

That was a hard afternoon.

[Reg Smeeton]

Anyone remmember losing to them a week after Scummers FA Cup? Played off the park in fact.

That was a hard afternoon.

Yep...they had Ashton and Hulse up front...we did get some chances, because that's the way they played, but they were very good.

 It may have been a couple of seasons previous, when they had been struggling and Danny Murphy came back on loan, to help out...think their midfield for the game was Murphy and Seth Johnson, when he was good. They took the piss.

A little research has revealed, that it was just about 10 years ago exactly...in the 2nd tier.  Jimmy Quinn fielded a very attacking line up....Mark Walters, Ty Gooden wide left and right, Chris Hay, Iffy and George Ndah...through the middle.

Unfortunately, our central mid consisted of Booby Howe 

David Kerslake was also playing...

[jonny72]

We've got the toughest run in, no easy games and an appalling record against the leagues seemingly poorer sides.

Not sure we've got the worst, Northampton have got 3 against relegation teams and 4 against promotion teams.

Not sure about form going out of the window either, shit teams tend to always play shit in my book. Only 3 of the bottom 10 teams have taken more than 9 points from their last 8 games (us, Cheltenham and Orient).

[DiV]

....and crewe?

[Reg Smeeton]

Not sure we've got the worst, Northampton have got 3 against relegation teams and 4 against promotion teams.

Northampton's run in doesn't look too good, apart from maybe catching Hereford when they may be already down...they do have the best goal difference of the strugglers...

Form though really does go out of the window...yesterday being a classic example...Yeovil no wins since early February...no wins under Skiverton...but their players were prepared to put a bit of effort in because they could see the trap door open otherewise. 

[Don Rogers Shop]

If form does not matter why you going on about us not beating crewe at home for a while

[Reg Smeeton]

If form does not matter why you going on about us not beating crewe at home for a while

It's to do with factors like state and size of the pitch, approach of the coach etc.

 In the case of Crewe...I did mention that apparently they're a bit more direct under Thordarsson, but Gradi's sides and then last season under Holland always found the CG to their liking.

 Clearly the fact they haven't lost here for some years doesn't mean they wont on Saturday...but it does mean within their coaching set up, they know how to play at the CG.

 The first thing that Byrne said yesterday, was that Yeovil had done their homework and played in a style to nullify us...