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25% => The Reg Smeeton Match Day Action/Reaction Forum => Topic started by: Robinz on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 09:11:33



Title: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: Robinz on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 09:11:33
Raad an article in the Swindon Advert and the reality set in...
It seems very unlikely that we can now even qualify for the play offs.
Just went through the fixtures until the end of the season and it does not look good.


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: Nemo on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 09:17:11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/league-two/

Statistical gigabrains at FiveThirtyEight give us a 24% chance to make the playoffs and a 10% chance to go up.

We've made it difficult for ourselves, but it's not impossible. We'll see, you have to have a bit of hope or what's the point frankly?


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: Bob's Orange on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 09:21:43
If we can somehow mirror the end of last season then we are in with a chance. If we can use the win at Salford and follow that up with 3 points at home to Harrogate then we can use that as a catalyst to go on a cracking run. Yes the fixture list looks tricky but there are no sides in this division that look daunting and with RHM back from suspension, Jonny Williams hopefully back from his concussion protocol absence as well as Joe Tomlinson coming in to add balance down the left I think there is a lot to look forward to.

Don't forget we still have to unleash the Milan Misun of 2023, Reece Devine to make his intervention!


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: Pookemon on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 09:25:21
Raad an article in the Swindon Advert and the reality set in...
It seems very unlikely that we can now even qualify for the play offs.
Just went through the fixtures until the end of the season and it does not look good.

It's unlikely that's for sure.   Our home form is attrocious.  20th over last 6 games against some shite opposition.
The run of games since mansfield against primarily mid table or below teams should have seen us kick on but the opposite happened.    Can't defend and don't create much.

Yes if we get a run of wins of course we can scrape in there but it's looking unlikely as we don't have as good a team as last year.


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: The Million Pound Man on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 09:30:21
Its in our hands, but Salford really needs to be the turning point and Saturday is a must win.

We still have to play Stockport, Carlisle, Mansfield and Bradford at home and Walsall away. A lot of 6 pointers there.

Now is the time to go on a run, something we havent really done all season.

Unlikely, not impossible.

Personally ive written this season off after the shambolic January transfer window, hoping to see some green shoots in the coming months and Morris given a window and full preseason to properly put his stamp on things. A change in the transfer policy is needed in the summer if were to do anything next year- a spine of big, strong, physical blokes is needed to compliment technical players in the basement. 


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: horlock07 on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 09:45:21
When did we last have decent home form, it feels like we have been dreadful at home for a few seasons now?


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: Dr Pierre Chang on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 10:00:33
When did we last have decent home form, it feels like we have been dreadful at home for a few seasons now?
Under Wellens in the 19/20 season which was cut short. 13 wins from 19 in the league which was joint highest with Crewe.


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: Nemo on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 10:02:25
When did we last have decent home form, it feels like we have been dreadful at home for a few seasons now?

As of now, we're 15th on the home only table and 8th on the away only table.

Last season we were 11th on the home table and top on the away table.

2020/21 League One we were 20th on the home table and 21st on the away table, so nominally better at home but shit at both

2019/20 League Two (Wellens) we were third on both tables (and Champions, go figure)

2018/19 League Two we were 17th on home table, 7th away

2017/18 League Two we were 15th home, 3rd away

2016/17 League One we were 22nd home, 19th away

2015/16 League One we were 16th on both

2014/15 League One we were 4th on both


To be honest this took much longer than I was expecting to look back, but the last time we were clearly better home than away was 2013/14 when we were 4th in League One Home form, 16th away form. To give you an idea of how much has changed since then, Wolves won League One that year, Kevin MacDonald started the season as manager and our top goalscorer was Nile Ranger...

Edit: Alternatively, what Chang said :D


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 10:05:57
I’ve written this season off. Morris needs to hone his style on the players ready for next season in the remaining fixtures. Hopefully there’s not the usual massive squad churn. I’m convinced that 3 or 4 quality additions will see us competing next season. Would like to keep Austin, Williams and McCreachan if possible - think quite a few of the others will still be contracted.

Maybe a lot depends on whatever Whelan reckons is coming our way in the next week or 2.


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: 4D on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 10:07:50
Strange how we are generally better away from home in the last 10 years. Can't be many clubs can say the same.


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: Batch on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 10:12:56
Nothing in our form says we'll do it (4pts from 15). And yet we are just 4 points from the playoffs.

I think there are too many others in the mix to give us anything other than an outside chance, but get 2 or 3 wins in a row and its back on.

Frustratingly close.


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: Batch on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 10:15:58
Strange how we are generally better away from home in the last 10 years. Can't be many clubs can say the same.

"Fortress County Ground" seems as long ago as "we've never lost at Wembley"


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: DiV on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 10:19:29
I mean we are a massive 4 points adrift.
Definitely mathematically impossible


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: ChalkyWhiteIsGod on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 10:22:19
We're not that far off, we could be back in a play off position with a couple of wins.

The problem though is seeing us string the results together with the thin bare squad and litany of issues with our defensive organisation.

Even if we get in the play offs, I can't see us being good enough to compete in them.

January fucked us. Some might even say Sandro has a wee bit of blood on his hands.


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: JoeMezz on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 10:51:49
Its in our hands, but Salford really needs to be the turning point and Saturday is a must win.

We still have to play Stockport, Carlisle, Mansfield and Bradford at home and Walsall away. A lot of 6 pointers there.

Now is the time to go on a run, something we havent really done all season.

Unlikely, not impossible.

Personally ive written this season off after the shambolic January transfer window, hoping to see some green shoots in the coming months and Morris given a window and full preseason to properly put his stamp on things. A change in the transfer policy is needed in the summer if were to do anything next year- a spine of big, strong, physical blokes is needed to compliment technical players in the basement. 

The last paragraph is the best description I’ve seen in here in ages. You won’t improve youngsters with no direction. Serious rethink in the summer required.


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: THE FLASH on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 13:08:09
Its a shame...

BUT for me it gone.

Lindsey appointment and dogshit January window has fucked us.

Sandro can fuck off!


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: adje on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 13:16:49
With this team
                              Brynn

   Lavinier      FBT.    Clayton  Tomlinson

  
  McEachran        Khan            Williams


 Shade.               Austin.           Wakeling

we would have a decent chance in my opinion
    
        


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: sir windon on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 13:17:05
I think we are a weaker team than this time last season, when we only just made it thanks to our miraculous late run in. We had Payne, Mckirdy, Reed and even 'Frenchy' (all in good form) The likes of Egbo were better than what we have now.
So, on the basis of that, I don't think we've got enough to make it this year. And if we somehow did, can anyone really see us having the mettle to bully our way through three play off games?


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: Pookemon on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 13:28:10
With this team
                              Brynn

   Lavinier      FBT.    Clayton  Tomlinson

   
  McEachran        Khan            Williams


 Shade.               Austin.           Wakeling

We should have a decent chance in my opinion
   
         
Not this year it won't.   We have some good players in the squad but far too many are best at full back so it's just not balanced enough.   
Wakeling needs to platy in the centre Shade isn't that good so carries nowhere near the threat of mckirdy/Barry. 

3 full backs and 3 left footers in a back 4 that has never played together.  Only about 30 or so caps at centre back between Clayton and FBT with only Khan in front of them - Khan will get sent off.

Anyway Lavinier and Tomlinson are injured and will probably miss the next 3-4 games based on what JM said in the presser last week.

Doomed no but we have made it extremely hard for ourselves with poor squad building and panicky sales in Jan


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: reeves4england on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 13:48:51
The stat of us having a 25% chance sounds pretty reasonable. Only 4 points off right now and whilst we have some tough games still to come (including 5 of the top 7 and Bradford) we also have to play all of the bottom 4.


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: Peter Venkman on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 13:53:14
As of now, we're 15th on the home only table and 8th on the away only table.

Last season we were 11th on the home table and top on the away table.

2020/21 League One we were 20th on the home table and 21st on the away table, so nominally better at home but shit at both

2019/20 League Two (Wellens) we were third on both tables (and Champions, go figure)

2018/19 League Two we were 17th on home table, 7th away

2017/18 League Two we were 15th home, 3rd away

2016/17 League One we were 22nd home, 19th away

2015/16 League One we were 16th on both

2014/15 League One we were 4th on both


To be honest this took much longer than I was expecting to look back, but the last time we were clearly better home than away was 2013/14 when we were 4th in League One Home form, 16th away form. To give you an idea of how much has changed since then, Wolves won League One that year, Kevin MacDonald started the season as manager and our top goalscorer was Nile Ranger...

Edit: Alternatively, what Chang said :D
Obviously if and its a huge IF we can go on a run of course we can go up in the autos but for me its highly unlikely, we could more easily make the play offs but again I fear we will fall short of that target.

As a comparison to last season.....

This time last season after us playing 31 games we were in 7th place on 49 points scored 49 goals and conceded 38.

This season after us playing 31 games we are in 11th place and 45 points having scored 40 goals and conceding 35.

This time last season after 31 games the promoted teams were - FGR 1st on 66 points, Exeter 4th on 53 points and Rovers 11th on 44 points.

Play off qualifiers were Northampton 3rd on 55 points Mansfield 6th on 50, Swindon 7th on 49 and Port Vale 9th on 45.


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: Batch on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 14:00:58
This time last season after 31 games the promoted teams were - FGR 1st on 66 points, Exeter 4th on 53 points and Rovers 11th on 44 points.

So being 1 point better off than Rovers...we are going up!


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: Peter Venkman on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 14:11:11
So being 1 point better off than Rovers...we are going up!
Happened before! just not to us.


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: BambooToTheFuture on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 14:18:23
If Town went up autos in say 3rd place, then Morris would have a hell of a lot of credit in the bank as it wouldn't be down to luck and more quickly being able to get the most out of his players. POs sneaky 7th might infer some luck along the way (see vs Salford t'other night).

It would be Town's own 'Miracle of Castel di Sangro', maybe the papers would call it the 'Miracle of Castel di Sandro'  :hmmm:


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: THE FLASH on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 15:32:22
So being 1 point better off than Rovers...we are going up!


Cant see Crawley playing all their kids on the final day like Scunny....they might need to win.

NOW that would be a highlight of the season...


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 15:57:49
Crawley’s last 4 games - 4 shots on target.


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: Batch on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 16:02:58
Crawley’s last 4 games - 4 shots on target.

He's getting better :)


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: RobertT on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 16:19:56
With this team
                              Brynn

   Lavinier      FBT.    Clayton  Tomlinson

   
  McEachran        Khan            Williams


 Shade.               Austin.           Wakeling

we would have a decent chance in my opinion
   
         

Even that team, which is probably close to the best, is riddled with issues.

The two at centre back looked very suspect when together, it completely messes with FBT being on the right side.  Clayton is still learning the game.

Midfield is a shooting gallery for the opposition - Khan is not discplined enough to be a lone player, which he would be in that formation.  not just literally speaking, but in terms of holding position.

Shade is meh at best and Wakeling should be used as he has the past two games, in and out.  Not getting burned out by playing every game.  Like Clayton, he should be developed, not relied upon.

Two fullbacks would be our best options I think, but not going to play for a while.  So it will actually be Hutton and Iandolo.  Hutton is not really a defender, Iandolo is Iandolo.


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: RobertT on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 16:21:14
Oh, and we can make the play offs, but not sure we will and really not sure we'd progress in them when it boils down to pressure football.  Hopefully I talk utter shit - the evidence thus far suggests not, but I'm happy to be the idiot.


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: Nomoreheroes on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 18:03:10
No. It’s ‘too’ hopeful.


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: adje on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 18:31:57
Even that team, which is probably close to the best, is riddled with issues.

The two at centre back looked very suspect when together, it completely messes with FBT being on the right side.  Clayton is still learning the game.

Midfield is a shooting gallery for the opposition - Khan is not discplined enough to be a lone player, which he would be in that formation.  not just literally speaking, but in terms of holding position.

Shade is meh at best and Wakeling should be used as he has the past two games, in and out.  Not getting burned out by playing every game.  Like Clayton, he should be developed, not relied upon.

Two fullbacks would be our best options I think, but not going to play for a while.  So it will actually be Hutton and Iandolo.  Hutton is not really a defender, Iandolo is Iandolo.
Fair enough but all we're after here is to finish 7th in a piss poor inconsistent league in which we've already taken points from every single team currently above us. It's not a great team I've drawn up but it's plenty good enough to finish 7th I reckon. I know it depends on everyone being available but imagine a bench with Hutton Brennan Darcy RHM Jephcott and Cain/Kadji. It's a decent enough squad. In my opinion FBT is a better CH than Conroy and MacDonald and I'm not prone to writing him and Clayton off as a pair in a back four after,what,one game? McEachran promises to be an upgrade on this season's Louis Reed and if Austin had been here all season I'm sure he would have notched as many as McKirdy last season so that bodes well for the rest of the campaign.Yes,agree Khan is a hot head but that can change  if he learns a lesson,still a consistent performer for us so far.So,no. It's not too hopeful for me


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: RobertT on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 18:50:16
Reading the other thread we are likely to be short of Khan for 3-5 games as well.


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: TheDukeOfBanbury on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 18:56:36
Even that team, which is probably close to the best, is riddled with issues.

The two at centre back looked very suspect when together, it completely messes with FBT being on the right side.  Clayton is still learning the game.

Midfield is a shooting gallery for the opposition - Khan is not discplined enough to be a lone player, which he would be in that formation.  not just literally speaking, but in terms of holding position.

Shade is meh at best and Wakeling should be used as he has the past two games, in and out.  Not getting burned out by playing every game.  Like Clayton, he should be developed, not relied upon.

Two fullbacks would be our best options I think, but not going to play for a while.  So it will actually be Hutton and Iandolo.  Hutton is not really a defender, Iandolo is Iandolo.

Accurate assessment.


Title: Re: Is it to hopeful to get into the play offs
Post by: TheDukeOfBanbury on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, 18:57:36
Crawley’s last 4 games - 4 shots on target.

Gladwin out injured.