Thetownend.com

13   Doncaster Rovers 28 11 4 13 34 37 -3 37
14   Yeovil Town 29 10 7 12 34 42 -8 37
15   Tranmere Rovers 30 8 12 10 33 32 1 36
16   Port Vale 29 10 6 13 31 36 -5 36
17   Blackpool 30 8 11 11 40 45 -5 35
18   Walsall 29 9 8 12 36 42 -6 35
19   Bristol City 30 9 8 13 38 48 -10 35
20   Scunthorpe United 28 8 9 11 44 50 -6 33
21   Hartlepool United 30 8 9 13 29 39 -10 33
22   Swindon Town 30 7 10 13 30 41 -11 31
23   Rotherham United 30 6 11 13 33 41 -8 29
24   Franchise 29 5 12 12 27 41 -14 27

Right, i've been staring at that for a while now, and i'm trying to figure out in my head how many points we'll need to stay up. Iffy says that he thinks 52 will be enough, although it could be as many as 55.....

At this point, we're 2/3rd's through the season, so i'd like to make an assumption that most teams will score another 33.3% of their current points tally, over the rest of the season (give or take a few). Can't really take Scunnie as the litmus test, due to their 2 games in hand, so i'll use the City Scummers. They have 35 points thus far, leading me to believe it'll be around 52-53 points they, or at least the team just above the relegation zone, will have amassed.

So, we need around 21-23 points to stay up from our remaining 16 games. That's 8 wins, or 7 wins with a couple of draws. Winning half our games seems like a bloody tough ask. IMO, we must win practically all of our home games for the rest of the season, and hope for something on our travels. If we can keep up our recent home form, we have a very decent chance.

Hahaha, i've just read that back, and it's the ramblings of a madman! Not really any point to it! :D

Guess i'm just trying to get my head around the task in front of us

We have 8 of those teams from the lower half left to play....

Doncaster (H)
Rotherham (H)
Tranmere (H)
Yeovil (A)
Hartlepool (H)
Franchise (H)
Scunthorpe (A)
Brizzle (A)

Every one of them is a must win game.

i can't see winning all them games to be honest. but i do think after our 2 home wins its looking more possible than before.

its also now about what others do aswell, they may not do aswell as you think.

The trouble is they all seem to keep on fucking winning  :-))(
Is anyone else aware of the games this weekend that effect us?The games are Rotherham V Hartlepool and Sunthorpe V Mac Dons.I guess draws in both games would be best for us :shrug:

A win for us this weekend would bring a whole host of teams into the mix. But we need to keep up our good home form (obviously).

It's tough but do-able. More than I ws saying after the Southend result.

Incidently Hartlepool have suspended boss Martin Scott following an incident that took place in the dressing room after their 3-0 loss against Blackpool on Saturday.

So difficult to call this year.

I'd say Tranmere are the team we should look at catching but there's still no sign of anyone folding and packing up for the season just yet.

Abomination and Rotherham look weak and may fold soon enough.  Hartlepool look like they could be candidates while Scunthorpe's two games in hand makes them a hard cat to fish with.

Out of the air I'd say we have to be looking at sticking Hartlepool and Wallsall as the two sides to go down with Abomination and Rotherpork.

I see where you are coming from Village, I dont think you can do it that way though as alot of teams have shipped in and out alot of player.

We've obviously got rid of Fallon but brought in Peacock....that potentially makes our team weaker, but Ifil is on form now and he wasnt earlier in the season which makes our team stronger etc

anyone know what Dazzas talking about? :?

something about fishing with cats

We need to concentrate on us not other teams around us, as long as we win our games then thats all we can ask for...

Yeah, that sounds like the point i may have been trying to make originally. We can't keep relying on teams around us slipping up, we need to concentate on hitting a target

 Think Dazzza is undergoing what should be known as metaphormorphosis :scribe:

its not about other results. we need 8 more wins and we will stay up! simple as that

i agree that we need to just concentrate on us, but it is up to others to drop points for us to stay up. we're not in control of the situation.

 :doh:

If we beat them they will drop points

:o   I love posting on the fly that really does make as much sense as Davro.  

I’ll have another go…

In terms of keeping up with the Joneses I think our friends on the Wirral, Tranmere are the neighbours we should aspire to.  By the large they’re one of the more consistent sides still within our sweaty grasp, have quite a good side but have been let down a bit ooop front in recent weeks.    

Out of our closer rivals no one has quite packed up, given up hope and been cast adrift from the pack.  That said the abomination (Dongs) and Rotherham don’t look far off.

Out of those above I’d wager Hartlepool are a good bet to go down.  They look to be in one big slump, are all over the place at the moment and if we can leap frog them on Saturday it’ll give us a big psychological advantage and a mountain they may not be able to stomach.

Shitty and Walsall are both sides I wouldn’t like to count on slipping up.  Both a bit inconsistent but never the less are on the up and can’t be expected to drop that many points.

Out of what’s left I’d say Scunny look to be the best bet to over take and fill that last relegation spot.  A lot depends on how they play out their two games in hand but I’d have two quid on them going down.

Reginald are you implying I'm going through some sort of descent into a Menopause or a descent into a psychosis?

For the last 5 seasons 52 points has been enough to stay up in this league which is probably where Iffy gets his number. Personally I find that an easier concept than working out which teams are gong to have a bad run in ... but then I used to be an accountant. :oops:

Having read all of the above i am now less confident of avoiding the drop than before.

Since about October its been the City game that's the second last match.

For me the loser of that match goes down - so we need to be safe before then.....

I thought they drew the fixture list up before the start of the season? :wink: