Thetownend.com

Are we on the brink of WWIII?

No...

I hope so. I'm so bored...

It would liven things up a tad.

Technically it's Ukraine....not the Ukraine..

:Ride On Fatbury's Lovestick:

It's that sort of pedantry that's taking the world to war.

Putin is a scary, scary man.

My girlfriend was living in Russia until Christmas and it is a democracy in name only. Putin controls their heating centrally, in a country that regularly hits -20. No wonder they vote for him!

Putin controls our heating as well....

I've got more in common with him than I thought. I control the central heating in my place too.

No

If we are, don't worry it'll be over by Christmas.

On a serious note, great to be in the position to watch the western media, and it's take on things, then switch over to RT and watch it from the Russian point of view.

For the ultimate view I'll check out what Al Jazeera are saying, probably the most balanced news broadcaster going.

Given that they control the gas supply for the whole of Europe, all this political remonstrating today will result in absolutely nothing.

I found it quite laughable that the biggest 'threats' have come from Canada and Australia. Like they really give two shits.

:nod: Never understood why people say The Ukraine. The Gambia and The Congo (sometimes) have some logic behind them as they are named after those rivers but it's not the same with Ukraine.

Bloody Aussies, beat England in the cricket, looking good in Saff Afrika, and they think they can take on the world!

They both have large Ukrainian populations I think - need to keep those voters happy.

I think the big issue is the agreement that was signed a few years ago, to persuade (the) Ukraine to give up it's nuclear weapons (inherited from the old USSR).

Basically, (the) UK and (the) USA (along with Russia !!) signed an agreement to protect (the) Ukraine's borders, if they gave up the Nukes.

So if we are honourable people, then technically, it should be Armageddon.

Much as I hate the idea of global Nuclear catastrophe, if you sign up to an agreement, you kind of have to see it through

I imagine Russia would argue that such an agreement is null and void as the prevous regime was 'forcibly removed' (after it shot protesters and turned peaceful protests into an armed revolt).

We should listen to the new Ukrainian government. They don't want boots on the ground, and there shouldn't be any. There ain't gonna be much of Ukraine (or indeed anywhere else) left otherwise.

Difficult situation. The people of the Crimean region are in the majority ethnically Russian from what I understand. They are semi autonomous, but had a pro-Moscow president in Kiev who was democratically elected and they seemed happy with.

Then unrest from the more EU friendly regions in the west of Ukraine depose the President and replace him with their own (unelected) bod.

Who should the international community be standing behind here?

Putin probably hasn't helped matters by sending troops in at such an early stage, but when he says he's trying to secure the safety of ethnic Russians who support the Moscow government, he's not wrong.

Imagine the end result of this will be Crimea seceding to Russia or becoming a fully independent state but there'll be plenty more muscle-flexing and international grandstanding before then no doubt.

Hang on though, the Crimea is only full of Ruskies because they were heavily encouraged to go there was Stalin had deported the 'native' Crimean tatars post second world war.   

Heavily caveated with - as far as I can tell from my reading on various sites, may be a load of ol' bs.

Crimea is majority ethnically Russian but it's far from overwhelming - 40% are non-Russian, many of whom (e.g. the Tatars) have long memories of the brutal repression they suffered last time they were under direct rule from Moscow, and fear that if Crimea is reabsorbed into Russia, they'd suffer the backlash. They'd be unlikely to take that lying down.
As I understand it, the pro-Russian Crimeans and Eastern Ukranians were in many regards just as unhappy with Wierd Al Yankovic as everyone else because he was corrupt, brutal and incompetent, but they did like that he was pro-Moscow and they like what he's been replaced with even less. Understandably so, the new Ukrainian government are an unappealing bunch.
Putin's engineered most of the situation in the Crimea. There certainly is popular sentiment on the ground against what's happened in Kiev and much to be worried about, but this is no more a popular uprising of ethnic Russians welcoming in the troops who will protect them than was the case when Germany annexed Czechoslovakia in 1938 to "protect" the ethnic Germans of the Sudetenland. It's the same playbook, conveniently just after the Winter Olympics

Bang on there. Most of it utterly ineffective and designed to be so - there's no way the West wants, or can afford, a war with Putin over Crimea, any more than we did with Germany over Czechoslovakia, Austria....

Of course if we did want to introduce some genuinely effective sanctions we could enforce the money laundering regulations against the billions of criminal Russian money floating around the City of London, forcing Putin's own gangster elites to turn against him. But if we did that the high-end London property market and banking sector would probably collapse, because we're as dependent on their gangsters as Putin is.

I would argue that the crisis has come about due to provocation. If we remember it began last November (http://www.euractiv.com/global-europe/ukraine-stuns-eu-putting-associa-news-531873) when the Ukrainian government dramatically rejected the Association Agreement with the EU. Billed as a “trade agreement” it was in fact far more than that (http://www.eeas.europa.eu/ukraine/docs/eu_ukr_ass_agenda_24jun2013.pdf), it was the first steps in making the Ukraine a fully fledged member. The EU said the Association Agreement “"will significantly deepen Ukraine's political association and economic integration with the EU". It’s the same process Bulgaria and Romania went through.

Even as far back as 2007 (http://web.archive.org/web/20100315092314/http://ec.europa.eu/external_relations/ukraine/index_en.htm), we can see the process of integrating Ukraine was in progress: “The EU is seeking an increasingly close relationship with Ukraine, going beyond mere bilateral co-operation, to gradual economic integration and a deepening of political co-operation.”

With many bitter memories of being invaded on its western front, Russia has long been eyeing the increasing encroachment and influence over former Soviet states nervously. Ukraine was always a step too far. That was parking tanks firmly on Putin's lawn. There is no way for historical, military and political reasons that any Russian leader, not just Putin, was going to allow Ukraine to leave its sphere of influence and attach itself to the Western bloc.

What we’re seeing is what happens when you poke a big bear with a stick; the only real surprise is why it took Putin so long.

This international dilemma could be solved by someone doing the world a favour and simply shooting Putin in the face.

That is all.

If you think that allowing an independent state to determine it's own future is provocation, then yes you're perfectly correct. I'm a little surprised to see you swallow Putin's logic so completely whole though.

One area where I think we agree was why it took Putin (or any Russian leader) so long to start clawing back some of the satellite states that gained their independence in the aftermath of the breakup of the USSR almost by accident.

He'd simply be replaced by someone else, quite possibly someone worse. Russia is a gangster state and has been since the fall of communism. Putin's a scumbag, but the problems run far deeper than just him

(https://i.chzbgr.com/maxW500/872897280/hBE034AEE/)

For once, to my shock, I agree with you.

Russia is a corrupt dictatorship, as bad as any, at least 20 years behind the rest of the world regarding civil rights, and Putin is the main reason this has stayed the same.

A bunch of right-wing homophobic white supremacists with multiple criminal connections waving guns around to get their way and a would be seen as a danger to the peace even in the Southern States of the US.

Russia is essentially a country run by these people.

I've met a lot of Russians. I've never met one that wasn't shifty.

It's not provocation for an independent state to try to decide it's own future I agree, but it is for the EU, western powers and the US to actively encourage that move. As an example I give you Cameron's deeply provacative speech of "Let’s extend the EU towards Asia" (http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/411830/Outcry-as-David-Cameron-says-Let-s-extend-the-EU-towards-Asia) made last year.

I'm not trying to jusity Putin's current actions, just that we cannot ignore the EU's complicity in this. A point Mark Mardell from the BBC (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-26299178) has made.

Basically Ukraine is not part of Europe as far as I see it and that is where the problem lies. If Ukraine were to ally themselves to the EU, then a possible move to become part of NATO would be on the cards and that is definitely not in Putin's and his military cohorts interest. Hence the Russian sabre rattling which hopefully will go no further than that but not convinced that there will be no further bloodshed.

 :no:

Well it's not part of Asia is it?

I think in 1854, when we fought the Russians at Sevastopol, Inkerman and Balaclava, we thought it was a European War.  Back then we had Lord Palmerston and Lord Tennyson now we've got William Hague...

Half a league, half a league,
  Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death,
  Rode the six hundred.
'Forward, the Light Brigade!
Charge for the guns' he said:
Into the valley of Death
  Rode the six hundred

Modern Russia straddles the two continents, but Ukraine is quite clearly in Europe

It borders only European countries and, relatively speaking, isn't really that close to Asia

 If Kazakhstan can be drawn against Iceland in a 2016 Euro qualifier, then Ukraine is safely inside Europe..

I think using FIFA's quirks as a guide to modern geo-political boundaries may be a slightly sub-optimal way of going about things. Although I guess Alex Salmond and Plaid Cymru would like it, not sure the Spanish would, or the Independent People's Republic of Gibraltar, come to that.

I'm not sure ....football is a pretty good way of getting a rule of thumb view of world politics....as for Gib they've clearly improved as they only lost 4-1 to the Faeroes... much better than when I saw us put 8 on them in a pre-season friendly in 69.

The separatist tendencies of the Basque Country and Catalonia....are diluted by the fact that it's football teams are successful and a source of regional pride. Is it any coincidence then that the Sweaties wanting to break away has coincided with the demise of their fitba...?

You might well be on to something here Reg. A one-off Russia v Ukraine international (un)friendly to decide the future of Crimea would probably be about as likely to lead to a decent solution as the current debacle, and with significantly less bloodshed (so long as it was played behind closed doors)

I nearly caused a diplomatic situation in our house by asking my (Russian) wife to cook chicken kiev tonight.

Did she not feel like Chicken Tonight^TM?

Could be a warm up for Klitschko v Putin match up

With a ta(r)tar sauce?

 :D

  :) Very good. But actually she prefers tsar tsar sauce!

At least me and Reg are too old to get called up.

You whipper-snappers better get your excuses in early

Reminds me of Zsa Zsa Gabor, who is happily still with us for a bit longer.  As a kid I could never work out what it was that she actually did, or had done, that meant she regularly cropped up on TV chatting to the likes of Russell Harty or Michael Parkinson. It seems she was mummy, granny and great granny of the famous for being famous phenomenon so beloved of the 21st Century.

Zsa Zsa had 9 husbands, so I suppose she must have a certain Eastern European, in her case Hungarian charm, that it easy to succumb to  :)

 ;D

The start of the cold (food) war?

And if Israel can enter the Eurovision then Ukraine is in Europe.

hmmm - not so sure about that.

Back in 1969 there was terrific resentment in Honduras at the influx of immigrant workers from El Salvador

El Salvador and Honduras had fought their way to a knock out game over two legs to get into the Mexico World Cup in 1970

No winner emerged (although the away fans got a good kicking in each tie) and a play off was scheduled in neutral Mexico when El Salvador stuffed Honduras 3-0 - and marched into the World Cup ... and also Honduras

Although the ensuing "war" lasted but 4 days, the Central American equivalent of the EU blew apart for 10 years.


 

That's borscht

And Russia! So you can live in Vladivostok and still sing in a European competition.

El Salvador took a bit of momentum into the following years, until they got stuffed 10-1 by Hungary in the 82 WC....their national pride took a knock after that and they've not been back. I'm concerned for Tahiti after they went down 10-0 to Spain in the recent Confederations Cup.

looks as if Russia has been doing a lot of border tending recently
http://news.postimees.ee/2701410/editorial-border-treaty-pain

Who translated that - David Blunkett ?

I thought the Ukrainian troops who marched out of their base unarmed to face down armed Russian soldiers were fantastically brave

Dossy is very quiet on all this - has he gone to fight for Putin ?

i'd assume an estonian blind person

If the Russians had any balls they should have dropped their guns and gone toe to toe with them.

He IS Putin.

Thousands of brave  soldiers died horrible deaths helping the Russian people to enjoy the life they have today...many of these servicemen didn't die fighting...they got blown to bits or froze to death in icy waters when the Germans had there nasty hands right round the throat of Russia...not so long ago really.
So what is Russia's contribution to a safer more caring world....who have they helped in the last 50 years....hard to think of anyone anything really except to make sure that they are fine and dandy.

So wouldn't it be nice just for once they turned round and surprised the world and said...fair enough,we understand and will try and pave the way for a fair transistion....let the Ukraine do as they please as long as the Russian nationals are treated fairly like everyone else.

We can dream.

I'm not trying to stick up for the Ruskies in this situation, far from it.

But are you trying to say they didn't play their part in WWII? Or have I misunderstood?

I think I am right in saying it's Russian soldiers lee is referring to at the beginning