Thetownend.com

The recent Washbag article thinks Donny will end up as Champions (bold, given their managerial situation), and we'll finish 2nd. I sat down with our run in, and made some loose predictions for our remaining fixtures. Without having them in front of me, I think I came out with 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats, which would leave us on 85 points.

85 would, if the table resembles the League One table of the past couple of seasons, see us comfortably in the play-offs, but narrowly missing out on 2nd.

In my mind, I think Donny and Tranmere will fall away; with us, Sheffield United, MK and Bournemouth challenging.

Has anyone else been as sad as me to calculate likely / potential points totals? Convince me we don't need to go anywhere near the play-offs.

You forgot Brentford.

We're good enough to win it. Whether we do or not is up to us.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_div_2/predictor/default.stm (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_div_2/predictor/default.stm)

If I was a betting man (I'm not), I'd probably be putting money on a play off position finish at the moment.  As you imply in your forecast, we are going to need 2+ points per game between now and the end of the season to make the top 2...which was our average over the course of last season. Not impossible - but we are going to need a Jan/Feb 2012 style run of form, or something approaching that, at some point during the remainder of this season to get there.  Hopefully, we're in the middle of something like that at the moment.

We will win the division and Brentford will finish 2nd.

Somewhere between 2nd and 6th I think. I reckon Sheff Utd might be the ones to miss out.

League One points for the top six over the last 10 seasons (max - avg - min);

1st = 101 - 94 - 82
2nd = 93 - 86 - 79
3rd = 90 - 83 - 76
4th = 84 - 80 - 73
5th = 82 - 78 - 72
6th = 81 - 75 - 71

Interestingly, from a quick glance, those numbers would be higher if you look at just the last 5 seasons.

Some tough away games during the run in as well (Donny, Sheff U and Scunny-who could either be fighting off relegation/down or safe)

Forget the tough looking away fixtures - the performance at Bornmuff should make people confident of a more than decent rake of points from them.

It's the remaining home games against the real dross of the division which should yield maximum points.

9 games at home - winning the lot = 27 points

15 points from the away games should give us a total of

88 points

Using that predictor I think we will get to 88 points.

Wins: 12
Draws: 5
Defeats: 3 (Brentford, Franchise, Colchester - bound to lose)

The away day specials in a row will be a good acid test.

Tranmere
Orient
Crawley
Colchester

We've just had an acid test with Bournemouth!!!!

Just done the Beeb predictor.

That says us and Donny for automatic and Brentford, Cov, Bournemouth & Sheff U for playoffs.

But given how I've fared in the Townend predictor league I wouldn't give much credence to this.

April is a good month for me, being a Yorkshire-based fan.

It is a tough run in and we seem to stutter towards the end.  We lost out on an automatic promotion in 2010 because we dropped so many points in the last 6 games.  Lets hope we pick up enough beforehand and those around us drop them for it not to matter. 

That was acid rain test

A shameless plug for this page on my site, which shows our average points per game plotted against likely finish based on the last ten seasons in League One:

http://www.swindon-town-fc.co.uk/StatAttack/AveragePointsPerGame.asp?Season=2012-2013

When are you gonna put some more vids up? Keep em coming.

Agree with this, I think it was draws in 2/3 last homes against Exeter and Walsall, and a 2-2 draw away at an already relegated Wycombe that cost us an automatic place that season. Lets hope we do the business before then!

We also got trounced 3-0 at Colchester.

Still....I got chopsy with piss taking Colchester fans on the park n ride......you will never win promotion under hoofroyd and the cunts never even made the playoffs....fuck you...

The Wycombe match and Exeter were disasters as Leeds won at Yeovil away after we smashed em.

Interesting that 6 of the top 7 teams from that season are now either in the premiership or championship

One thing you can be sure of as things start to hot up teams are going to lose their way and drop points unexpectedly at both ends of the table in games you'd not expect. In other words expect the unexpected.

http://m.youtube.com/index?desktop_uri=%2F&gl=GB#/watch?v=Oc46Gk-6qrA