Thetownend.com

Right, having looked over the past 10 League Two seasons.

Champions
Highest – 102
Lowest – 83
Average - 90
Guarantee – 98

Second
Highest – 97
Lowest – 79
Average - 86
Guarantee – 89

Third
Highest – 88
Lowest – 78
Average – 82
Guarantee – 84

Seventh
Highest – 78
Lowest – 66
Average – 72
Guarantee – 78

Swindon Town F.C.
Played: 11
Points: 15
Current Points Per Game: 1.36
Points Per Game needed for:
Champions: 2.14 (to get to 90)
Second: 2.03 (to get to 86)
Third: 1.91 (to get to 82)
Play Offs: 1.62 (to get to 72)

The total set with regards to the points per game needed is taken as the average points for that position over the last 10 League Two seasons. So, we could hit the Champions average of 90 but still not finish 1st. In order to guarantee 1st we'd have to get 98 points as no one has finished with 98+ points and not won the league.

Probably way too early to start tracking our process - but I've done this for the last 3 (I think) seasons now so thought I'd carry on. Certainly last season the stats made piss poor reading long before most of us actually thought we were in the shit.

Start turning those away defeats into draws and we're probably laughing.

If you arent interested in these stats, dont care for these stats or just want to talk about me instead (or point out the fact I put bloody live instead of life!) then kindly fuck off now before you add a pointless reply :)

Probably a bit of fun to do every 10 games.

Its interesting though.

 You usually do this, around February, as an antidote, to boring winter evenings.

 I think it's plainly obvious that we've got to improve considerably to do anything this season.

Eventually we will start to pick up a few draws and this should happen when PDC works out how to set up the team away from home, turning some of these defeats into draws.  Home form should stay strong.

I'm over-analysing here but zero draws in 11 games isn't normal, when it normalizes the key is where there draws happen.

Something tells me DV intentionally spelt life wrong hoping that I would bite. Oh...damn..  :D

10 draws..... or 4 wins and six defeats...i will take the six defeats and four wins on account of us gaining two extra points :D

This takes me back to the FF days in 2009 and last season DV. You are the master of the stats. This time it's for promotion and not relegation! Hurrah!

We only need to improve a little bit. ie - away from home.

I started with our touch and go relegation season, where we eventually finished 15th - which I believe I just did the bottom half of the table. Our play off season I did the whole league and last season I did the bottom half again.

So far I've only done us - probably expand as the season goes on.

The interesting thing (well interesting to me anyway) is that most teams are alot more consistent and follow their path alot more accurately than you'd think.

For the most part the teams who looked likely come 25-30 to finish in the bottom 4/top 6 usually did. The only two complete change in fortunes was a Russel Slade inspired Brighton who looked dead and buried and Northampton who werent even in the bottom half when I started ended up going down.

which makes what they've done even more ridiculous. the bummers.

Swindon Town F.C.
Played: 16
Points: 26
Current Points Per Game: 1.63
Points Per Game needed for:
Champions: 2.13 (to get to 90)
Second: 2.00 (to get to 86)
Third: 1.87 (to get to 82)
Play Offs: 1.54 (to get to 72)

good month for us, current form suggests we'll finish between 4th and 7th at the moment.

Swindon Town F.C.
Played: 21
Points: 37
Current Points Per Game: 1.76
Points Per Game needed for:
Champions: 2.12 (to get to 90)
Second: 1.96 (to get to 86)
Third: 1.80 (to get to 82)
Play Offs: 1.40 (to get to 72)

current form still suggests we'll finish in the play offs - not far off being on course for 3rd though

DV, your 'current form still suggests we'll finish in the play offs' comment is a little off the mark surely, as you've just looked at the season so far. I'd argue that 'current form' isn't the season so far but the last 10 games, therefore our current form is looking very encouraging.

Looking at season to date figures as a whole would be like looking a fund performance stats since launch, when most would look at last 1yr, 3 yr & 5yr performance to gauge how well things have gone.  The run of 4 defeats in a row (was it) at the start of the season (the Town recession) has an awful dragging effect on the figures produced. 

Be interesting to manipulate the figures a little, perhaps start since that run of defeats, that should encourage optimism to spread through out the CG.

Swindon Town F.C.
Played: 27
Points: 52
Current Points Per Game: 1.93
Points Per Game needed for:
Champions: 2.00 (to get to 90)
Second: 1.79 (to get to 86)
Third: 1.58 (to get to 82)
Play Offs: 1.05 (to get to 72)

On for 88 points currently, which will see us in the top 2.

I feel that your thread and my thread should spend some time together, get to know each other a little and maybe produce another thread that incorporates all the best bits of both.  Or maybe not.

That second beer is going to my head a little.

How many more to make sure we aren't relegated?

Beers or threads?

Surely if we are currently second, and we carry on scoring at the same rate of points per game, and we assume that everyone else does too, then it isn't rocket science to say that we will end up second is it.

In fact I am willing to bet that if all the teams in the division carry on accumulating the same amount of points per game that they have so far, then the entire table at the end of the season won't look entirely differant from the table now

Having said that, I have realised that not everyone has played the same number of games, so I'm wrong.
I'm big enough to admit it

Wouldn't goal difference become a factor? Plenty of teams on the same points so not likely to be exactly the same...

Sorry, I'm a pedant.

Swindon Town F.C.
Played: 31
Points: 64
Current Points Per Game: 2.06
Points Per Game needed for:
Champions: 1.73 (to get to 90)
Second: 1.47 (to get to 86)
Third: 1.20 (to get to 82)
Play Offs: 0.53 (to get to 72)

Currently on for 95 points and the Championship.

Good stuff.

We will win the league by at least 10 points

I think so.

I'm hoping for a new record points total for the 4th tier.

Well the record in every league is held by Reading at 106, I think thats achievable but we can only drop 3 points until the end of the season to equal that.

the way we're play at the moment, not impossible!!!

We'll get 90 ish points. We're bound to have a bad spell at some point.

That's what the last few games have been. We just happen to winning during our bad patch. 8)

We bypassing League 1? ;-)

I was thinking after the Shrews match that we'd finish with 95 or 96 points. Good enough for the title. As the others (Chelt, Southend, Crawley, Shrews) can't get close to that as none of them are capable of going on such a run.

PDC thinks we need 5 more wins for promotion. How many we looking at for the title?

Was just looking at the run in, I think Shrewsbury and Crawley have the best run ins. Though clearly nothing is straight forward in the last month or two.

I reckon 88-90 points for champs.

Swindon Town F.C.
Played: 34
Points: 70
Current Points Per Game: 2.06
Points Per Game needed for:
Champions: 1.67 (to get to 90)
Second: 1.33 (to get to 86)
Third: 1.00 (to get to 82)
Play Offs: 0.17 (to get to 72)

Pretty much got a play off spot minimum. Paolo must have been reading this thread - before tonight he said 5 more wins for promotion - which would be 82.

4 more wins now for promotion.

This is how league two looked this time last year.

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-two/2010-2011/table/2011-03-05

You can see, we are head of where Chesterfield were this time last year, but interestingly Crawley (6th as it stands) have the same number of points as Bury (2nd last season), which shows that the top 6 are stronger and performing better then last years league two.

That's because we're making them work harder.

This one is a good one to keep an eye on

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D3/runin.html

Not sure it takes into account teams playing each other, but will confirm mathematically when we reach the playoffs,  get promoted (hopefully), etc.

Thanks for that Batch - Was amused to read that Daggers could mathematically still finish 2nd!!

The reality just kicked in - we could still finish 20th.

 :yikes:

Its not that good a representation - all it does is give the maximum points for any team, but as that can only come at the expense of other teams, not everyone can get all the points. The total possible number of points in a season is 46 x 12 x 3 = 1656, which if distributed evenly gives everyone 69, but as some games are drawn and only two points awarded the total is always less.

Still I always look for 50 points (avoid relegation) in any season... and it does look a nice table at the moment. I can't remember a nicer place to be as a Town fan than this for many years (maybe the League 1 title season?). Wembley to come, 6 points and a massive goal difference advantage. Whats not to like? We've even been good enough to try to help the scum out too, just so we can play them next year...

Hence why I said ..


:)

The predicted "points on current form", "points on season average" is moderately useful though.

And the  Pox can still go down (again)

Swindon Town F.C.
Played: 35
Points: 73
Current Points Per Game: 2.09
Points Per Game needed for:
Champions: 1.55 (to get to 90)
Second: 1.18 (to get to 86)
Third: 0.82 (to get to 82)
Play Offs: Done (to get to 72)


3 more wins now for promotion.

Swindon Town F.C.
Played: 39
Points: 80
Current Points Per Game: 2.05
Points Per Game needed for:
Champions: 1.43 (to get to 90)
Second: 0.86 (to get to 86)
Third: 0.29 (to get to 82)
Play Offs: Done (to get to 72)

1 more win for Promotion.

I think that the chasing pack should see us focus a lot more than if we were ten points clear at this stage.

Interestingly we have almost double the points we had at this stage last year, so hopefully we finish one place lower than last year and can push on next season.

Bump. 


I think DV needs to start this again.

Agreed. DV was a lot more interesting when he was statting.

Currently we're averaging 1.8 points per game.

Just been researching (I'm bored) and since 02/03 season the points needed for automatic promotion (not champs) in league one has been between 79 to 93 points.

16 games left and we have 54 points. Another 30 points for auto I reckon.

We need 1.875 points per game.

Current season average is 1.8

SHIT WE'VE BLOWN IT JED OUT ETC

Current season form will give us 82 points

Same total as Danny Wilson's Play-Off team.

I can't handle another Wembley fuck up.

Chill man. Last 10 games form we've averaged 2.2 points. If we carry on with 2.2 for the remainder of the season we'll finish on 87 points which should see us go up automatically.

That's ok then

The run in really is a mixed bag looking at it. You'd expect us to win the majority of our remaining home games on paper and struggle away, what with Sheff Utd, Brentford, Franchise, Cov, Brentford, Tranmere, Yeovil & Scunthorpe being the remaining trips. Knowing us it'll the the total opposite!!!!

Depends if you keep Paolo on board doesn't it Jed. Are you buying me a pint on Saturday ?

I can safely say that I think Paolo will be in charge for the foreseeable future!! Ur pint, on the other hand, is something I couldn't possibly guarantee!!!  :D :D

So the meeting went well with Paolo, Jed?

10k crowd on Saturday, this buying fans a pint lark could get pricey Jed. Unless you lower beer prices to 1 pound a pint ? Sounds good to me.

I'm sure u'll find out soon enough  :D
Out of interest whereabout's are you from Welsh Red? (not being nosey as I live in Wales myself)

Thank god I'm not Jed then!!! Or am I?? Starting to beleive the hype on here myself!!!!  :D ;D

I'm in Swansea.

Ah rite, bet it's hell atm, what with the new found success of the Jack Army!!

You don't know the half of it mate. Utter hell.

When I was young I was ridiculed because they all supported Man Utd. Now the tables have turned and they're all 'due-hard' Swans. And I'm still being ridiculed! :cry: