Thetownend.com

To get the magic fifty-two points, the target is obvious from the current twenty points.  That's about one and a quarter points per game, form equivalent to that of Bristol Rovers or Northampton.

Latest Betting, Relegation:

Crewe: 1/4

Hereford: 1/2

Cheltenham: 4/6

Yeovil: 6/4

Leyton Orient: 9/4

Swindon: 3/1

Brighton: 10/3

Carlisle: 4/1


We have not done well this season against the other bottom teams.

1.28 points a game needed to stay up.

9 wins and 5 draws will do it. 

 Our predicament is shown clearly by the fact we're a mere 2 points better off now than  when we went down 3 seasons back.

 That season we knew was going to be a struggle...and we were always playing catch up.

 This season we've just sleepwalked into the mire...the scale of what's needed is shown by the fact in 05/06  over the next 12 games, we only lost 2, which got us out of the relegation zone briefly, only for the disaster of Rotherham and subsequent poor trot to finish us off.

relegated

This season? We never play well against the bottom teams. One of our continual Achilles heels is our ability to lower our game to worse sides, just as we seem to raise it against the better sides. That's been going on for years, irrespective of manager (or lack of)

Under king in one of our mid-table seasons didn't we manage to lose to a bottom 2 team 3 times in a week (maybe 8 days) or something crazy?

1.21 points a game needed to stay up.

8 wins and 5 draws will do it. 

Brighton - 3
Stockport - 3
Millwall - 0
Huddersfield - 1
Hartlepool - 1
Walsall - 1
Oldham - 0
Northampton - 1
Southend -1
Leicester - 0
Scunthorpe - 1
Tranmere - 0
Cheltenham - 1
Franchise - 1
Colchester - 0
Leeds - 0
Hereford - 1
Yeovil - 0
Crewe - 3
Brighton - 0
Leyton Orient - 3
Carlisle - 0
Bristol Rovers - 1
Peterborough - 0

Well I see around 22 points! Games against Brighton and Yeovil will tip the balance one way or the other.

Have you lot seen the future? No one knows for sure what we need, personally I think we need to win more games than the teams below us to stay up.  Not sure what that is though

We will not go down

If we get a couple of good loanees in January.

Yes, and you're not in it!

1.26 points a game needed to stay up.

 Half way through the season....perform as in the first half and we're down.

 The home form is so wretched though, it's very difficult to see where these wins are to come from...teams like Brighton and Yeovil who are poor, now know that all they need to do is keep it tight, and they'll be presented with goals, sooner or later.

 Next up Stockport, who are probably amongst the better away sides in the league...happy fucking days.

 Compared to this time in 05/06, we're a point better off having secured a draw as opposed to a lose in one fixture.

 We're now at the stage of hoping 4 clubs below us are going to fall apart, what will be key and probably settle our fate is that all of them have to come to the CG...
 

Quite honestly I'd prefer to play them away ...

How bad are we against the bottom half of the league at home, in a word .... shocking.

 It's a worry..but we've already lost at Numb and Crewe.

 Crewe are showing signs of recovery, but still like Numb and Hereford have shocking away records...Orient do travel better.  I'll go as far as to say, unless we get 12 points from these games we'll get relegated.

 Having looked a bit more closely, those 4 games are towards the end of the season, with the Dongs in between...it should certainly give us a clear idea of what is needed.

Not if the teams below us also perform as they have in the first half season !

Yeovil helped tonight.

1.26 points per game.

Or 8 wins from 19 games? Not impossible ...

we have lost as many games as Leeds. Turn the draws into wins and we'll climb the league.

The last 2 games have been very important...it now means we're 3 points better off than in 05/06 at the same stage...then we drew5 and won 6 to the end of season...23 points, with the 3 shortfall ended up 4 points away from safety with 52.

That season we had a good little run of 4 wins a draw and a defeat...over the next 6 fixture....only to fall away again.

 We could do with something similar now....

Except without the falling away again

Even with the falling away...given we're 3 points better off 51 might be enough.

 A few wins over the next 5 or 6 games would release the pressure a bit, I'm not sure I like the idea of all those games v fellow strugglers we've got in March.

1.28 points per game.

Still a big ask....in 05/06 about this time of year we left ourselves to get 14 points from 14 games.....couldn't do it.

We are of course about 4 games behind on that season, which will cause its own pressure.

I think we need to be a bit less negative about things. I'm hopeful this could be the start of an unbeated run, whereas Brighton, Hereford and Crewe have all lost 2 out of the last 3. Cheltenham have lost the last 3 straight, and even Orient who have the best form down the bottom of the table have lost one in that time.

I'm pretty confident that if we'd actually got to play some of our home games in the last few weeks we'd have more points to show for it.

I know I was less than enthusiastic about Wilson's appointment but he does seem to have got a few of the basics right and stopped the team from just falling apart when they concede in the way they were doing a month or so ago.

Before Christmas I'd sort of accepted we were down, now I've got a bit more hope.

I doubt the points needed to survive this season will be particularly high. I doubt you'd need even 50 to survive this year, the teams are that bad

We need a minimum of 23 points to be safe.

12 of them will come at home against Orient, Crewe, Cheltenham and Hereford

So we'll need 11 points from Brighton away, Northampton away, Hartlepool home, Yeovil away, Carlisle away, Rovers home, Southend home, Colchester away, Tranmere away, Leeds away, Millwall away, Scunthorpe home, Peterboro away & Franchise at home.

Comparing the points total to 05/06 is going to be irrelevant. The main factor in our league 1 status will be getting results against the teams around us. We don't want to place our fate in other teams hands.

How many games do we have left, 19?
where will 57 extra point leave us?

Not really, because season on season there are certain trends, in the distribution of available points...then there are subtrends, of which our main concern has to be our poor record against teams in the bottom four, which is dismal contrasted to teams in the top 4.

If we remained undefeated until the end of the season by drawing all our games, we'd probably still go down.  We need to be able to turn decent performances into wins, we need quite a few of them and the quicker the better.

The last 2 games have been away, against two good teams. Millwall likewise will be a tough game away.

Our survival will depend on how we perform at home.

Our survival will depend on us finishing on more points than 4 other teams.

I'm not sure how ANY fan can "accept" we were down before Christmas! That is ridiculous. How many times have we actually been in the relagation area this season?

I have said all season we will not go down and since wilsons arrival i have seen nothing but improvement

i keep changing my mind on if we will go down or not.currently i think we will be ok.

I'm not saying it was a cut and dried fact, fucking obviously it wasn't as I now think we might survive, but the run of results and the atmosphere of doom under Malpas had left me a bit resigned.

And the idea that you can't be a fan and also be a bit realistic is just bollocks. There were fucking thousands of us that went to the first home game of the Prem season pretty much accepting we were going to be there for just the 9 months or so. We all might have been hoping to be proved wrong but most of us weren't expecting to be.

Did you just compare the prem league season to this season ;-)

Bit of a contradiction in there as DW has had 6 games and we've got 6 points...whereas from MM's last 6 we got 8 points. Ergo if the run under MM left you resigned, then the present run should leave you  :suicide:

Performances and the change in defence is totally different now reg.

MM only achieved 9 points in his first 11 games which also included 4 home deafeats and a 5th in the league cup (after he stated the CC would be a fortress), not sure if correct, but it must be one of the worse runs for a manager of this club starting his first full season.

Malpas was also a joke.

We had one point less than we do now this time in 00/01 and we stayed up. Trends are good as a rough guide but football is unpredictable.

Getting a bit angry there mate.....I wasn't insinuating you can't be a fan unless you live in a fairy land of unrealistic make-believe. I meant that there is being realistic in saying that we are in for a relagation fight this year (whoever is the manager) and then there is, as you put it, "sort of accepting" we are down. And having that "acceptance" and being "resigned" to it when there is still over half a season left is just mental, regardless of the situation at the club.

If we were top of the league in the same period, you wouldn't accept that we were going up would you? Look at Leyton Orient last year.

Indeed...but that season we just about scraped survival.

All season we've just about managed a point a game...keep that going to the end of the season and we'll likely go down.

As long as we don't go down, I don't care how we do it. I think we'll stay up - there is a lot more positivity from the club and most of the fans now.

Most of them yes

I think we'll stay up, but I thought the same in 05/06, after we had a decent run about now, had Cureton scoring and twice went ahead v Rotherham, who looked certs for the drop, due to financial problems.....

well then more fool you for thinking such a shit side could stay up.

Better Board
Better Manager
Better Goalkeeper
Better Defenders
Better Midfield
Better Wingers
Better Strikers
Worse Teams

we'll be fine Bart, no need to worry.

 Nevertheless, that side had managed to claw its way back from being rock bottom for much of the season, to a position with 14 games to go needed a point a game for safety....I'll hazard a guess, this current will not be in such a favourable position with 14 games to go.

that team didnt stay up, this one will...

It was the Forest game that knocked the stuffing out of us that year.

stuffing - mmmm

I think its obvious why people are being more positive - Wilson has come in, shaken things up and has got the team working hard and putting in decent performances. We haven't picked up stacks of points but we've had tough games. If we get even a draw on Tuesday that'll make it 3 points from 3 games where most would expect us to get nothing.

We won't go down. Like its been said in the thread a few times, the home games we've got left are vitally important. From our 9 home games left I think we'll get at least 5 wins (Hartlepool, Crewe, Hereford, Cheltenham, Leyton Orient). Then we still have to play Southend in the week and obviously we'll get a least a draw against Rovers so there's 17 points at least the way I see it. Call it blind optimism but I reckon we've got enough about us now, with Wilson, to stay up.

[url width=250 height=254]http://www.buzzmachine.com/pix/eeyore.jpg[/url]

Ace  :Ride On Fatbury's Lovestick:

1.29 points per game.

1.19 points per game.

 Crucial win....we're now 2 points better off than same stage 05/06...defeat would have put us into bottom 4..

Is that a positive post Reginald?

Got to love a 4-2 home win after being 2 down at half time....this seems a bit unlikely, but the last one I can remember was 44 years ago v Cobblers march 65.

Perhaps DV or Rich Pullen could check for me. :)

statto, points per game needed by all the teams still in the race to 52...

Cheltenham Town - 1.94 PPG
Hereford - 1.56 PPG
Crewe - 1.50 PPG
Leyton Orient - 1.36 PPG
Brighton - 1.31 PPG
Swindon Town - 1.19 PPG
Northampton Town - 1.19 PPG
Hartlepool United - 1.14 PPG
Carlisle United - 1.07 PPG
Yeovil Town - 1 PPG

That says Crewe, Hereford and Cheltenham are stuffed to me.

I dunno, it doesnt take into account form.

Crewe and Hereford have both picked up wins recently and there are alot of teams down there that have to play each other.

Cheltenham need more points in their remaining 15 games than they have got all season so far. They have 21 from 30 games and need 31 from 15 games!!

but again the assumption is made that 52 is cut the off point and anyone on less than 52 will go down, which might not be the case this season. 47/48 might be enough to stay up but teams have gone down on that amount.

With so many teams in it and practically all playing each other its not black and white yet

Crewe are on a good run at the moment. It wasn't long ago that they were about 9 points adrift at the bottom.

They may well get out of it, looks like northampton are in freefall, judging by our last 5 games, no way will we be in the mix (hopefully)

Same with Yeovil a few weeks ago they were knocking around 22nd/23rd then 4 wins on the bounce and they shot up.

If you want to look at current form Northampton and Hartlepool have to be up there with the worst of them. They are both getting dragged into it and we have to play both of them.

Wouldnt surprise me if one of those two ended up going down...I also think one of Crewe or Hereford will survive.

So, Cheltenham, plus one of Crewe/Hereford plus one of Brighton/Orient and one of Northampton/Hartlepool

I hope Brighton go down because I fucking hate the cunts so much.

If you want something doing then do it yourself....I can confirm that today was the first time we've been 2-0 down at half time and come back to win 4-2 since March 65 against the Cobblers.

I seem to recall an evening game....17000+ in and standing on the Stratton  Bank, into which all our goals went.

Ernie Hunt got 2 Mike Summerbee and Don Rogers got the others....we were brilliant, Cobblers went up to the top flight that season and were a very rugged side.

Still went down mind and that was more or less Ernie and Mike's time over at the CG.

I didn't even get a chance to read the challenge, I've just got in.

This shows signs of having a life....sort it out.

Hartlepool are in free fall.

Their caretaker manager Chris Turner hasnt won a game yet and they really do have a dodgy set of goal keepers.

They are very much in it now and have played a game more. Its a big crunch game for us tuesday. We win and we are level on points with Hartlepool with a game in hand.

I think they'll be fine because in a similiar fashion to us they have Joel Porter who will get them goals which means they will pick up points. Same with us and Cox for the most part. Could say the same about Brighton and Forster.

Infact Hartlepool are one of only 3 sides in the bottom half to have conceeded more than us. Cheltenham 68, Crewe 61, Hartlepool 53, Us 51. On the flip side in the bottom half only Bristol Rovers (50) have scored more than Hartlepool (46) us (45)

I couldnt think of any in my life time but there was is huge gap between 1965 and my life time!!

 Over the last 16 games of the season, we've only got to play 4 games v top ten sides.

 Normally I'd regard this as good news, but we've only lost 4 games to top 10 sides, 2 to top 9.

 

past stats mean nothing about the future.that said i think it's going to be tight to stay up.today was in no way convincing at all,despite a great result

If we beat Hartlepool on Tuesday we will go above them with 2 games in hand I believe.

We will survive.

Hopefully they'll all get it. Then nobody will go down.

1.27 points per game.

I'm starting to really shit it now. Not sure we can afford many more results like tonight.

Our home form and in particular our tendancy to really struggle against dogshit teams is proving to be our downfall.

If we drop into the bottom 3 on Saturday do you think the players have the fight to get out of this, because based on last nights shocker I dont think they have the balls to fight for it. I hope I am wrong and we can scrape through but if we do or dont a massive cull is needed in the summer.

Lets face it, if we lose to Cheltenham next Tuesday we really should all give up and plan for league 2 next season!

Wilson has figured out how to not get beat by a good side, but not how to beat a poor side.

I expect every aspect of the defeat (aside from the bent ref) are being worked on.

It could be that not many matches, then matches twice a week caught up with them, but Hartlepool were there for the taking and could still go down.  Yeovil's change in manager won't help there cause, they could be on their way.  Crewe are going to stay up, as will Leyton Orient.  One can only hope Brighton completely lose form and drop like a stone.   

If Brighton get Gannon then we could be in trouble.  He'll sort them out.

1.36 points per game.

 We're now 2 points worse off than in 05/06 at the same stage....then we edged Gillingham in the equivalent of the forthcoming Numb game and got up to 16th.

 That side had been playing catch up all season and looked to have turned the corner, but then fell away.

 Can this side mount a fightback....it simply has to start on Tuesday.

1.28 points (21 Dec 08)
1.21 points (26 Dec 08)
1.26 points (28 Dec 08)
1.26 points (02 Feb 09)
1.28 points (14 Feb 09)
1.29 points (17 Feb 09)
1.19 points (21 Feb 09)
1.27 points (25 Feb 09)
1.36 points (28 Feb 09)

Just in case anyone was wondering.

something i posted on another site, again going on the assumption 52 points is the safety line

1. Cheltenham Town
Played 32 Points 21 - 31 points needed from 42 points left available.
Currently: 0.66 points per game - Need: 2.21 points per game
Fixtures left:
Leeds (A) 0-2
Millwall (H) 1-3
Northampton (H) 0-1
Swindon (A)
Leicester (A)
Hartlepool (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Oldham (H)
Walsall (A)
Leyton Orient (H)
Peterborough (A)
Crewe (A)
Carlisle (H)
Scunthorpe (A)
Southend (A)

2. Crewe
Played 32 Points 34 - 18 points needed from 42 points left available.
Currently: 1.06 PPG - Need: 1.29 PPG
Fixtures left:
Huddersfield (H) 3-1
Yeovil (H) 2-0
Brighton (A) 4-0
Carlisle (H)
Hereford (H)
Walsall (A)
Colchester (A)
Bristol Rovers (H)
Leeds (H)
Franchise (A)
Millwall (H)
Swindon (A)
Hartlepool (H)
Oldham (A)
Cheltenham (H)
Stockport (A)
Leicester (H)

3. Hereford
Played 31 Points 30 - 22 points needed from 45 points left available.
Currently: 0.97 PPG - Need: 1.47 PPG
Fixtures left:
Peterborough (H) 0-1
Leyton Orient (H) 2-1
Yeovil (A)
Crewe (A)
Bristol Rovers (H)
Southend (H)
Scunthorpe (A)
Swindon (A)
Carlisle (A)
Huddersfield (H)
Hartlepool (A)
Leicester (H)
Tranmere (A)
Colchester (H)
Northampton (A)
Franchise (H)

4. Brighton
Played 32 points 32 - 20 points needed from 42 points left available.
Currently: 1 PPG - Need: 1.43 PPG
Fixtures left:
Millwall (A) 1-0
Northampton (H) 1-1
Crewe (H) 0-4
Bristol Rovers (A)
Leyton Orient (A)
Southend (H)
Yeovil (H)
Walsall (A)
Scunthorpe (A)
Tranmere (H)
Franchise (A)
Swindon (H)
Colchester (A)
Oldham (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Stockport (H)

5. Leyton Orient
Played 33 points 33 - 19 points needed from 39 points left available.
Currently: 1 PPG - Need: 1.46 PPG
Fixtures left:
Hartlepool (A) 1-0
Hereford (A) 1-2
Peterborough (H)
Brighton (H)
Carlisle (A)
Stockport (A)
Walsall (H)
Oldham (H)
Cheltenham (A)
Leeds (H)
Colchester (H)
Swindon (A)
Northampton (H)
Millwall (A)
Huddersfield (H)

6. Swindon Town
Played 32 points 33 - 19 points needed from 42 points left available.
Currently: 1.03 PPG - Need: 1.36 PPG
Fixtures left:
Scunthorpe (H) 4-2
Hartlepool (H) 0-0-1
Tranmere (A) 0-1
Cheltenham (H)
Franchise (H)
Colchester (H)
Leeds (A)
Southend (H)
Hereford (H)
Northampton (A)
Yeovil (A)
Crewe (H)
Brighton (A)
Leyton Orient (H)
Carlisle (A)
Bristol Rovers (H)
Peterborough (A)

7. Northampton Town
Played 32 points 37 - 15 points needed from 42 points left available.
Currently: 1.16 PPG - Need: 1.07 PPG
Fixtures left:
Walsall (H) 0-2
Brighton (A) 1-1
Cheltenham (A) 1-0
Franchise (H)
Tranmere (H)
Millwall (A)
Peterborough (A)
Stockport (H)
Swindon (H)
Carlisle (A)
Yeovil (A)
Scunthorpe (H)
Bristol Rovers (A)
Southend (H)
Leyton Orient (A)
Hereford (H)
Leeds (A)

8. Yeovil Town
Played 33 Points 37 - 15 points needed from 39 points left available.
Currently: 1.12 PPG - Need: 1.15 PPG
Fixtures left:
Oldham (H) 2-2
Crewe (A) 0-2
Walsall (A) 0-2
Hereford (H)
Carlisle (H)
Leeds (A)
Brighton (A)
Franchise (H)
Swindon (H)
Northampton (H)
Stockport (A)
Millwall (H)
Cheltenham (A)
Hartlepool (H)
Tranmere (A)
Colchester (H)

9. Carlisle United
Played 33 Points 37 - 15 points needed from 39 points left available.
Currently: 1.12 PPG - Need: 1.15 PPG
Fixtures left:
Stockport (H) 1-2
Peterborough (A) 0-1
Bristol Rovers (H) 1-1
Crewe (A)
Yeovil (A)
Leyton Orient (H)
Scunthorpe (H)
Southend (A)
Hereford (H)
Northampton (H)
Leicester (A)
Oldham (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Swindon (H)
Cheltenham (A)
Millwall (H)

10. Hartlepool United
Played 34 Points 40 - 12 points needed from 36 points left available.
Currently: 1.18 PPG - Need: 1 PPG
Fixtures left:
Leyton Orient (H) 0-1
Swindon (A) 1-0
Colchester (A) 1-1
Tranmere (H)
Peterborough (H)
Stockport (A)
Cheltenham (A)
Millwall (H)
Southend (A)
Hereford (H)
Crewe (A)
Scunthorpe (H)
Yeovil (A)
Leeds (H)
Bristol Rovers (A)

The key with a relegation scrap is you forget the results even if theyve been really bad.

Still loads of games to go and its not over until its over.

If we do loose to Cheltenham then Wilson has to draw a line in the sand and get their heads sorted. Otherwise we could waste loads of games (while they get their heads sorted) then end up only going down by a few points.

one thing is certain, we go into the last 2 games of the season near trouble we are fucked :(

1.38 points per game.

if we do to histon next season i accept it aslong as we dont get sent down by the gas.

i do think we will make the 18 points though!!

I dont want to go to feckin histon again, last time was bad enough.

 We're now 4 points and 3 places worse off than in 05/06....then our final slump began.

 This season I'd say it was HPool...the effect can be seen already....it's going to take something quite special to reverse this trend...

having looked at our remaining fixtures, i reckon we will get around 15-16 points from our remaining games.

Borderline then! one saving grace is the goal differences currently between ourselves and the clubs around us, as it may well come down to that.

1.42 points per game.

I'd say the season now hinges on what reinforcements Wilson can get in for the final games.  As things stand I'd say we're as good as down...we've been gradually sliding and could easily have worked our way clear over the last few games.

Had we beaten HPool then level on points with them...they're now sat on 43, after a couple of decent results.

That is what we needed, but these players just don't know how to win games even when against poor sides under little pressure.

No way they'll be able to handle the pressure of the raft of six pointers coming along.

1. Cheltenham Town
Played 34 Points 22 - 30 points needed from 36 points left available.
Currently: 0.65 points per game - Need: 2.50 points per game
Fixtures left:
Leeds (A) 0-2
Millwall (H) 1-3
Northampton (H) 0-1
Swindon (A) 1-1
Leicester (A) 0-4
Hartlepool (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Oldham (H)
Walsall (A)
Leyton Orient (H)
Peterborough (A)
Crewe (A)
Carlisle (H)
Scunthorpe (A)
Southend (A)

2. Crewe
Played 34 Points 37 - 15 points needed from 36 points left available.
Currently: 1.09 PPG - Need: 1.25 PPG
Fixtures left:
Huddersfield (H) 3-1
Yeovil (H) 2-0
Brighton (A) 4-0
Carlisle (H) 1-2
Hereford (H) 2-1
Walsall (A)
Colchester (A)
Bristol Rovers (H)
Leeds (H)
Franchise (A)
Millwall (H)
Swindon (A)
Hartlepool (H)
Oldham (A)
Cheltenham (H)
Stockport (A)
Leicester (H)

3. Hereford
Played 32 Points 30 - 22 points needed from 42 points left available.
Currently: 0.94 PPG - Need: 1.57 PPG
Fixtures left:
Peterborough (H) 0-1
Leyton Orient (H) 2-1
Yeovil (A)
Crewe (A) 1-2
Bristol Rovers (H)
Southend (H)
Scunthorpe (A)
Swindon (A)
Carlisle (A)
Huddersfield (H)
Hartlepool (A)
Leicester (H)
Tranmere (A)
Colchester (H)
Northampton (A)
Franchise (H)

4. Brighton
Played 33 points 32 - 20 points needed from 39 points left available.
Currently: 0.97 PPG - Need: 1.54 PPG
Fixtures left:
Millwall (A) 1-0
Northampton (H) 1-1
Crewe (H) 0-4
Bristol Rovers (A)
Leyton Orient (A) 1-2
Southend (H)
Yeovil (H)
Walsall (A)
Scunthorpe (A)
Tranmere (H)
Franchise (A)
Swindon (H)
Colchester (A)
Oldham (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Stockport (H)

5. Leyton Orient
Played 35 points 36 - 16 points needed from 33 points left available.
Currently: 1.03 PPG - Need: 1.45 PPG
Fixtures left:
Hartlepool (A) 1-0
Hereford (A) 1-2
Peterborough (H) 2-3
Brighton (H) 2-1
Carlisle (A)
Stockport (A)
Walsall (H)
Oldham (H)
Cheltenham (A)
Leeds (H)
Colchester (H)
Swindon (A)
Northampton (H)
Millwall (A)
Huddersfield (H)

6. Swindon Town
Played 34 points 35 - 17 points needed from 36 points left available.
Currently: 1.03 PPG - Need: 1.42 PPG
Fixtures left:
Scunthorpe (H) 4-2
Hartlepool (H) 0-0-1
Tranmere (A) 0-1
Cheltenham (H) 2-2
Franchise (H) 1-1
Colchester (A)
Leeds (A)
Southend (H)
Hereford (H)
Northampton (A)
Yeovil (A)
Crewe (H)
Brighton (A)
Leyton Orient (H)
Carlisle (A)
Bristol Rovers (H)
Peterborough (A)

7. Northampton Town
Played 33 points 38 - 14 points needed from 39 points left available.
Currently: 1.15 PPG - Need: 1.08 PPG
Fixtures left:
Walsall (H) 0-2
Brighton (A) 1-1
Cheltenham (A) 1-0
Franchise (H)
Tranmere (H) 1-1
Millwall (A)
Peterborough (A)
Stockport (H)
Swindon (H)
Carlisle (A)
Yeovil (A)
Scunthorpe (H)
Bristol Rovers (A)
Southend (H)
Leyton Orient (A)
Hereford (H)
Leeds (A)

8. Yeovil Town
Played 34 Points 38 - 14 points needed from 36 points left available.
Currently: 1.12 PPG - Need: 1.17 PPG
Fixtures left:
Oldham (H) 2-2
Crewe (A) 0-2
Walsall (A) 0-2
Hereford (H)
Carlisle (H) 1-1
Leeds (A)
Brighton (A)
Franchise (H)
Swindon (H)
Northampton (H)
Stockport (A)
Millwall (H)
Cheltenham (A)
Hartlepool (H)
Tranmere (A)
Colchester (H)

9. Carlisle United
Played 35 Points 41 - 11 points needed from 33 points left available.
Currently: 1.17 PPG - Need: 1 PPG
Fixtures left:
Stockport (H) 1-2
Peterborough (A) 0-1
Bristol Rovers (H) 1-1
Crewe (A) 2-1
Yeovil (A) 1-1
Leyton Orient (H)
Scunthorpe (H)
Southend (A)
Hereford (H)
Northampton (H)
Leicester (A)
Oldham (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Swindon (H)
Cheltenham (A)
Millwall (H)

10. Hartlepool United
Played 36 Points 43 - 9 points needed from 30 points left available.
Currently: 1.19 PPG - Need: 0.90 PPG
Fixtures left:
Leyton Orient (H) 0-1
Swindon (A) 1-0
Colchester (A) 1-1
Tranmere (H) 2-1
Peterborough (H) 1-2
Stockport (A)
Cheltenham (A)
Millwall (H)
Southend (A)
Hereford (H)
Crewe (A)
Scunthorpe (H)
Yeovil (A)
Leeds (H)
Bristol Rovers (A)

Updated, should be right...

We're fooked....

:(

Dan, get a fucking life.

I stole it from another forum...

So it is evident that Reg Smeeton has thrown in the towell and given up already.

Is this the general consensus among Town fans, or do others still believe?

I still believe we can and will stay up, today was encouraging a lot more fight and belief.  Keep playing like that and we will get the results we need.

I'm in the Smeeton camp.

2 points from Hartlepool, Tranmere, Cheltenham and Franchise clearly isnt good enough. We should have taken at least 7 out of that run of games.

50/50. Play like we did today and we should win more than we lose, But the fact that we didn't win playing so well leaves me feeling lightly deflated.

Ultimately it comes down to the games v those around us, and we're shit against shit clubs.

Hello Port Vale.

If we don;t bring in a midifleder on loan we will go down. defence and attack fine, midfield not good enough.

I have braced myself for relegation.

Unfortunately, play like today and we'll draw more than we lose and that has been the problem all seaason.

my dad said for the first time, at least we'll have a good season next year if we go down...

we wont though because almost nearly all of our squad will go and we've had problems attracting players all season...

I'm very worried about next season already.

I disagree there DV. If we do go down i think we should still stick with Wilson and keep building. We all remember how we pissed league two last time with the feel good factor and that was with Diamond Mike in charge. I'm sure league two wasn't and still isn't part of Fitton's plans and i reckon they'll try their best to get us back here should the worst happen.

We pissed L2 because we had two very good managers and the fact that both managers could attract players to the club.

Malpas couldnt, Wilson has seemingly struggled so far.

stick with the same back 4.get in a centre mid and we'll be ok i think.this is subject to change of course

Me too, I've prepared mentally for the worst case scenario. I'm not saying we won't stay up, but its looking difficult. As Reg says, don't think they have the bottle.

We beat Aldershot in the LDV...bring it on!

JPT......................

Technically we drew 1-1 in the JPT.

Relagation could be a disaster football wise. There is no guarantee of promotion. Look at Oxford, Rovers, etc....

It's hard to be too down because I enjoyed the match today - first time for a long time. However the fact remains we'd have been better off if we'd beaten Cheltenham in a scrappy 1-0 in exchange for getting trounced by 4 or 5 today.

did you go ? :o

Yeah.

Stolen from another forum maybe, but you're the one who wrote it in the other forum (FF) in the first place.

BUSTED.

guilty :(

I don't recall pissing league two. I recall getting third by the skin of our teeth on the last day.

We'd have won the league if we had either Wise or Sturrock for the whole season. You say we only scraped it but actually if we'd have beaten Rovers and held on against Walsall we'd have won the league. Changing managers and dropping 6 points at home to Hereford and Lincoln that season cost us. 

Ady Williams out.

We definitely had a bit of a stutter getting over the line. A sort of shaky tremor. Nobody but Sturrock to blame for that one then.

1.55 points per game.

And if we'd have won loads more games this season we'd be higher up the league.  If I looked like Brad Pitt I'd be a model.  If I earned 100k a year I'd buy a Bentley.  If is a big word.  We did get promoted, and it was deserved, but it certainly was by the skin of our teeth.  No guarantee we would do it again.

i'm going to be supporting this club - existance permitting - for the rest of my life, in all honestly one season in L2 makes fuck all difference.

i might even see us finish top six in the prem in the next 50 years, does a season in L2 really mean that life is over?

man utd might be the the worst team in the UK by the time i die, who knows?

all we can do is support the best way we can and keep doing so

Hippy!

my nerd stats

1. Cheltenham Town
Played 34 Points 22 - 30 points needed from 36 points left available.
Currently: 0.65 points per game - Need: 2.50 points per game
Fixtures left:
Leeds (A) 0-2
Millwall (H) 1-3
Northampton (H) 0-1
Swindon (A) 1-1
Leicester (A) 0-4
Hartlepool (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Oldham (H)
Walsall (A)
Leyton Orient (H)
Peterborough (A)
Crewe (A)
Carlisle (H)
Scunthorpe (A)
Southend (A)

2. Crewe
Played 35 Points 38 - 14 points needed from 33 points left available.
Currently: 1.09 PPG - Need: 1.27 PPG
Fixtures left:
Huddersfield (H) 3-1
Yeovil (H) 2-0
Brighton (A) 4-0
Carlisle (H) 1-2
Hereford (H) 2-1
Walsall (A) 1-1
Colchester (A)
Bristol Rovers (H)
Leeds (H)
Franchise (A)
Millwall (H)
Swindon (A)
Hartlepool (H)
Oldham (A)
Cheltenham (H)
Stockport (A)
Leicester (H)

3. Hereford
Played 33 Points 30 - 22 points needed from 39 points left available.
Currently: 0.91 PPG - Need: 1.69 PPG
Fixtures left:
Peterborough (H) 0-1
Leyton Orient (H) 2-1
Yeovil (A)
Crewe (A) 1-2
Bristol Rovers (H) 0-3
Southend (H)
Scunthorpe (A)
Swindon (A)
Carlisle (A)
Huddersfield (H)
Hartlepool (A)
Leicester (H)
Tranmere (A)
Colchester (H)
Northampton (A)
Franchise (H)

4. Brighton
Played 34 points 32 - 20 points needed from 36 points left available.
Currently: 0.94 PPG - Need: 1.67 PPG
Fixtures left:
Millwall (A) 1-0
Northampton (H) 1-1
Crewe (H) 0-4
Bristol Rovers (A)
Leyton Orient (A) 1-2
Southend (H) 1-3
Yeovil (H)
Walsall (A)
Scunthorpe (A)
Tranmere (H)
Franchise (A)
Swindon (H)
Colchester (A)
Oldham (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Stockport (H)

5. Leyton Orient
Played 36 points 39 - 13 points needed from 30 points left available.
Currently: 1.08 PPG - Need: 1.30 PPG
Fixtures left:
Hartlepool (A) 1-0
Hereford (A) 1-2
Peterborough (H) 2-3
Brighton (H) 2-1
Carlisle (A) 3-1
Stockport (A)
Walsall (H)
Oldham (H)
Cheltenham (A)
Leeds (H)
Colchester (H)
Swindon (A)
Northampton (H)
Millwall (A)
Huddersfield (H)

6. Swindon Town
Played 35 points 35 - 17 points needed from 33 points left available.
Currently: 1 PPG - Need: 1.55 PPG
Fixtures left:
Scunthorpe (H) 4-2
Hartlepool (H) 0-0-1
Tranmere (A) 0-1
Cheltenham (H) 2-2
Franchise (H) 1-1
Colchester (A) 2-3
Leeds (A)
Southend (H)
Hereford (H)
Northampton (A)
Yeovil (A)
Crewe (H)
Brighton (A)
Leyton Orient (H)
Carlisle (A)
Bristol Rovers (H)
Peterborough (A)

7. Northampton Town
Played 34 points 38 - 14 points needed from 36 points left available.
Currently: 1.12 PPG - Need: 1.17 PPG
Fixtures left:
Walsall (H) 0-2
Brighton (A) 1-1
Cheltenham (A) 1-0
Franchise (H)
Tranmere (H) 1-1
Millwall (A) 0-1
Peterborough (A)
Stockport (H)
Swindon (H)
Carlisle (A)
Yeovil (A)
Scunthorpe (H)
Bristol Rovers (A)
Southend (H)
Leyton Orient (A)
Hereford (H)
Leeds (A)

8. Yeovil Town
Played 35 Points 38 - 14 points needed from 33 points left available.
Currently: 1.09 PPG - Need: 1.27 PPG
Fixtures left:
Oldham (H) 2-2
Crewe (A) 0-2
Walsall (A) 0-2
Hereford (H)
Carlisle (H) 1-1
Leeds (A) 4-0
Brighton (A)
Franchise (H)
Swindon (H)
Northampton (H)
Stockport (A)
Millwall (H)
Cheltenham (A)
Hartlepool (H)
Tranmere (A)
Colchester (H)

9. Carlisle United
Played 36 Points 41 - 11 points needed from 30 points left available.
Currently: 1.14 PPG - Need: 1.10 PPG
Fixtures left:
Stockport (H) 1-2
Peterborough (A) 0-1
Bristol Rovers (H) 1-1
Crewe (A) 2-1
Yeovil (A) 1-1
Leyton Orient (H) 1-3
Scunthorpe (H)
Southend (A)
Hereford (H)
Northampton (H)
Leicester (A)
Oldham (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Swindon (H)
Cheltenham (A)
Millwall (H)

10. Hartlepool United
Played 37 Points 43 - 9 points needed from 27 points left available.
Currently: 1.16 PPG - Need: 1 PPG
Fixtures left:
Leyton Orient (H) 0-1
Swindon (A) 1-0
Colchester (A) 1-1
Tranmere (H) 2-1
Peterborough (H) 1-2
Stockport (A) 1-2
Cheltenham (A)
Millwall (H)
Southend (A)
Hereford (H)
Crewe (A)
Scunthorpe (H)
Yeovil (A)
Leeds (H)
Bristol Rovers (A)

i have a very fine elderberry tea recepie you might be interested in?

DV, you've got the Cheltenham score wrong from when they played us

so I have, not that it makes any difference of course

looking at the runins are is by far the easiest on paper

I thought that 4 weeks ago...

After their up turns in form recently. I dont look so kindly on Crewe, Hereford & Orient at home anymore.

Before then I would have said 12 points from Cheltenham, Crewe, Hereford & Orient.

 Next season is going to be a rite of passage for any number of Town fans.

 Going down 05/06 there was a certain novelty value, and added to the fact we won a few, crowds were OK....I'm not sure this time how many will stick with it...we've already seen the likes of DV wash his hands of next season.

 This feels to me a bit like around 83 84...when we were completely spiritless as a side, getting in cheap old lags to go with a mix of not yet ready kids...even though individually some of them were OK, as a side it just didn't work.

Consequence was we quickly shed half of a previous 5 to 6 thousand average crowd.

The Board were not prepared to spend any money...even if they had any, but were also restrained by the then Articles of Association, which provided for far greater democracy.

It was the revising of these Articles in 85, which enabled the onset of the Hillier Years.

83/84 is the worst ever in my life time. This current lot of bottlers and chokers are like Ronaldinho and Kaka compared to the useless fuckers we had then. Even Malpas looked like Mourinho against Beamish.
If we go down and I think we will then if we win a few games and if the ST offer remains the same I can see gates being the same if not better. Fans turn up to see winning teams regardless of division.
I don't know DV but if we start playing decent stuff, players puuting in a good shift and we get results, then people won't stay away for long. I'm sure if you can put up with the shite we've served up this year then you could tolerate us stuffing Accrington for example.
The problem is going down and not winning the first few games,

 I've seen so many fall by the wayside down the years....very often it's those like DV who seem like a big fan.

 I think the problem will be that next season will be nothing like 06/07, when by the standards of the league we splashed the cash...everything points to that not happening this time.

 

Wasnt around in 1983.

But in 2000 we had a simmilar situation of a new board, who were promising great things, but on the pitch it just didnt happen. Start of that season we slipped down to about 3200 for some night games. Hopefully things will turn out better off the field this time!

What we need is a signing in the summer like Tommy Mooney. A winner, someone who wants to win something, rather than just stroll through the end of their career, who wont accept other players being passengers......

 Next season we need to start from scratch...not an easy thing to do.

 Going back to 83/84, Chalkie's assertion that the players were crap, isn't born out by the facts. 

 I'd hazard a guess that, that side would give this one a decent game.  Up front it had Jimmy Quinn and Alan Mayes, out wide Garry Nelson and Dave Hockaday.  Full backs Charlie Henry and Colin Bailie...all of these were very decent players. Andy Rowland sometimes played up front sometimes centre half.

Like this season it was central defence and midfield, that gave problems and Jimmy Allan finishing because of a broken arm didn't help.

The problem was a sense that the club lacked any sort of drive....sound familiar?

Since when has that stopped me? I was thinking more of Davd Batty, David Cole, Badderely, Brian Hughes, Gary Emmanuel, fat cunt Gibson etc.
You're right, the players you mention piss on our current lot but Colin Baiilie was crap. Andy Rowland is one our most underrated players ever. I saw his debut away to Aldershot in the Cup.   

 Paul Batty....think David would have been alright in Div4. Colin Bailie was decent we sold him to Reading for 35 K and used 25 of it to buy Colin Calderwood. Brian Hughes had gone by 83/84 but you're right about teh rest.

Thing about Gibson though is you need a donkey stopper in Div 4 and that hasn't changed.....Jerel is at his level there it seems.

With a lot of those players mentioned they were local lads, part of John Trollope's effort to repeat the days of Bert Head....I can see AF wanting to go down a similar road next season.

Would the Town faithful accept a struggling side composed of teh likes of Morrison, Kennedy, Joyce, Allen, Pook etc

 

David Batty - I wish - yes Paul Batty. Again, got my facts wrong.
In hindsight if I knew the position we were going to be in I'd be more accepting of it if we had blooded the youngsters. I'd rather be in this position with the youngsters than with what we've got.
Would I have been brave enuogh to go with them from the off - on. Would I pick them now - yes.   

In L2?

I dont think the Town faithfull would settle for anything less than promotion

I doubt the town 'faithfull' would settle much for league two.

Coca Cola League 1 Relegation 08/09

Cheltenham 1/66    Northampton 7/2
Hereford 1/3    Carlisle 8/1
Brighton 4/5    Hartlepool 10/1
Crewe 11/8    Bristol Rovers 40/1
Swindon 11/8    Walsall 40/1
Orient 7/4            Southend 50/1
Yeovil 7/4    

I might put a quid on Rovers.

1. Cheltenham Town
Played 35 Points 25 - 27 points needed from 33 points left available.
Currently: 0.72 points per game - Need: 2.45 points per game
Fixtures left:
Leeds (A) 0-2
Millwall (H) 1-3
Northampton (H) 0-1
Swindon (A) 1-1
Leicester (A) 0-4
Hartlepool (H) 2-0
Huddersfield (A)
Oldham (H)
Walsall (A)
Leyton Orient (H)
Peterborough (A)
Crewe (A)
Carlisle (H)
Scunthorpe (A)
Southend (A)

2. Crewe
Played 36 Points 41 - 11 points needed from 30 points left available.
Currently: 1.13 PPG - Need: 1.10 PPG
Fixtures left:
Huddersfield (H) 3-1
Yeovil (H) 2-0
Brighton (A) 4-0
Carlisle (H) 1-2
Hereford (H) 2-1
Walsall (A) 1-1
Colchester (A) 1-0
Bristol Rovers (H)
Leeds (H)
Franchise (A)
Millwall (H)
Swindon (A)
Hartlepool (H)
Oldham (A)
Cheltenham (H)
Stockport (A)
Leicester (H)

3. Hereford
Played 34 Points 30 - 22 points needed from 36 points left available.
Currently: 0.88 PPG - Need: 1.83 PPG
Fixtures left:
Peterborough (H) 0-1
Leyton Orient (H) 2-1
Yeovil (A)
Crewe (A) 1-2
Bristol Rovers (H) 0-3
Southend (H) 0-1
Scunthorpe (A)
Swindon (A)
Carlisle (A)
Huddersfield (H)
Hartlepool (A)
Leicester (H)
Tranmere (A)
Colchester (H)
Northampton (A)
Franchise (H)

4. Brighton
Played 35 points 35 - 17 points needed from 33 points left available.
Currently: 1 PPG - Need: 1.55 PPG
Fixtures left:
Millwall (A) 1-0
Northampton (H) 1-1
Crewe (H) 0-4
Bristol Rovers (A)
Leyton Orient (A) 1-2
Southend (H) 1-3
Yeovil (H) 5-0
Walsall (A)
Scunthorpe (A)
Tranmere (H)
Franchise (A)
Swindon (H)
Colchester (A)
Oldham (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Stockport (H)

5. Leyton Orient
Played 37 points 42 - 10 points needed from 27 points left available.
Currently: 1.14 PPG - Need: 1.11 PPG
Fixtures left:
Hartlepool (A) 1-0
Hereford (A) 1-2
Peterborough (H) 2-3
Brighton (H) 2-1
Carlisle (A) 3-1
Stockport (A) 1-0
Walsall (H)
Oldham (H)
Cheltenham (A)
Leeds (H)
Colchester (H)
Swindon (A)
Northampton (H)
Millwall (A)
Huddersfield (H)

6. Swindon Town
Played 36 points 35 - 17 points needed from 30 points left available.
Currently: 0.97 PPG - Need: 1.70 PPG
Fixtures left:
Scunthorpe (H) 4-2
Hartlepool (H) 0-0-1
Tranmere (A) 0-1
Cheltenham (H) 2-2
Franchise (H) 1-1
Colchester (A) 2-3
Leeds (A) 0-1
Southend (H)
Hereford (H)
Northampton (A)
Yeovil (A)
Crewe (H)
Brighton (A)
Leyton Orient (H)
Carlisle (A)
Bristol Rovers (H)
Peterborough (A)

7. Northampton Town
Played 35 points 38 - 14 points needed from 33 points left available.
Currently: 1.09 PPG - Need: 1.27 PPG
Fixtures left:
Walsall (H) 0-2
Brighton (A) 1-1
Cheltenham (A) 1-0
Franchise (H)
Tranmere (H) 1-1
Millwall (A) 0-1
Peterborough (A) 0-1
Stockport (H)
Swindon (H)
Carlisle (A)
Yeovil (A)
Scunthorpe (H)
Bristol Rovers (A)
Southend (H)
Leyton Orient (A)
Hereford (H)
Leeds (A)

8. Yeovil Town
Played 36 Points 38 - 14 points needed from 30 points left available.
Currently: 1.06 PPG - Need: 1.40 PPG
Fixtures left:
Oldham (H) 2-2
Crewe (A) 0-2
Walsall (A) 0-2
Hereford (H)
Carlisle (H) 1-1
Leeds (A) 4-0
Brighton (A) 0-5
Franchise (H)
Swindon (H)
Northampton (H)
Stockport (A)
Millwall (H)
Cheltenham (A)
Hartlepool (H)
Tranmere (A)
Colchester (H)

9. Carlisle United
Played 37 Points 42 - 10 points needed from 27 points left available.
Currently: 1.14 PPG - Need: 1.11 PPG
Fixtures left:
Stockport (H) 1-2
Peterborough (A) 0-1
Bristol Rovers (H) 1-1
Crewe (A) 2-1
Yeovil (A) 1-1
Leyton Orient (H) 1-3
Scunthorpe (H) 1-1
Southend (A)
Hereford (H)
Northampton (H)
Leicester (A)
Oldham (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Swindon (H)
Cheltenham (A)
Millwall (H)

10. Hartlepool United
Played 38 Points 43 - 9 points needed from 24 points left available.
Currently: 1.13 PPG - Need: 1.13 PPG
Fixtures left:
Leyton Orient (H) 0-1
Swindon (A) 1-0
Colchester (A) 1-1
Tranmere (H) 2-1
Peterborough (H) 1-2
Stockport (A) 1-2
Cheltenham (A) 1-2
Millwall (H)
Southend (A)
Hereford (H)
Crewe (A)
Scunthorpe (H)
Yeovil (A)
Leeds (H)
Bristol Rovers (A)

Brightons win puts a whole new spin on things, they also have their yearly 3 points from us at the shitdean to come.

Yeovil without a proper manager. If anyones going to change places its Yeovil and Brighton.

Even if that is true DV, we can still take Northampton

Its possible I suppose.

I mean Northampton even lost to us. I never thought they'd be anywhere near the bottom 4 but they have been sucked in. The do have a game in hand on everyone though, 2 on some.

I know it counts for nothing but win that and all of a sudden it looks much better for them.

Also, I'm keeping the corner of my eye on Hartlepool played more than anyone else (2 more than us, 3 more than Brighton) and on 43 points.

Without that stupid fucking penalty 41 points.

1.7 points per game.

  The only good news from today was Bormuff getting out of the drop zone, to be replaced by Grimsby....we also want to see Exeter not going up through the PO's, and Wycombe caving in.

 You'd think Hereford and Cheltnumb are likely to join us...so hopefully it'll be Torquay through the PO's

Or..... ;)

[I don't want them to go up]

If we go down, I really do hope they go up.
It would be something to look forward to at least.
That said, I still think we'll stay up.

And a nice August/September fixture by the seaside.

I'd love to play the scum again as long as we bloody win.

This has prob already been mentioned but can't be bothered to read the whole thread.  Not only could Rovers send us down, they could actually make the play offs by beating us....2 games in hand and only 9 points off 6th...

Cheltenham 1/33            Orient 3/1
Hereford 2/7                Hartlepool 7/1
Brighton 10/11                Carlisle 8/1
Swindon 10/11               Walsall 33/1
Yeovil 11/8                Southend 100/1
Northampton 11/4        Bristol Rovers 100/1

1.56 points a game.

1. Cheltenham Town
Played 36 Points 28 - 24 points needed from 30 points left available.
Currently: 0.78 points per game - Need: 2.40 points per game
Fixtures left:
Leeds (A) 0-2
Millwall (H) 1-3
Northampton (H) 0-1
Swindon (A) 2-2
Leicester (A) 0-4
Hartlepool (H) 2-0
Tranmere (H) 1-0
Huddersfield (A)
Oldham (H)
Walsall (A)
Leyton Orient (H)
Peterborough (A)
Crewe (A)
Carlisle (H)
Scunthorpe (A)
Southend (A)

2. Crewe
Played 37 Points 42 - 10 points needed from 27 points left available.
Currently: 1.14 PPG - Need: 1.11 PPG
Fixtures left:
Huddersfield (H) 3-1
Yeovil (H) 2-0
Brighton (A) 4-0
Carlisle (H) 1-2
Hereford (H) 2-1
Walsall (A) 1-1
Colchester (A) 1-0
Bristol Rovers (H) 1-1
Leeds (H)
Franchise (A)
Millwall (H)
Swindon (A)
Hartlepool (H)
Oldham (A)
Cheltenham (H)
Stockport (A)
Leicester (H)

3. Hereford
Played 35 Points 30 - 22 points needed from 33 points left available.
Currently: 0.86 PPG - Need: 2 PPG
Fixtures left:
Peterborough (H) 0-1
Leyton Orient (H) 2-1
Yeovil (A)
Crewe (A) 1-2
Bristol Rovers (H) 0-3
Southend (H) 0-1
Scunthorpe (A) 0-3
Swindon (A)
Carlisle (A)
Huddersfield (H)
Hartlepool (A)
Leicester (H)
Tranmere (A)
Colchester (H)
Northampton (A)
Franchise (H)

4. Brighton
Played 36 points 35 - 17 points needed from 30 points left available.
Currently: 0.97 PPG - Need: 1.70 PPG
Fixtures left:
Millwall (A) 1-0
Northampton (H) 1-1
Crewe (H) 0-4
Bristol Rovers (A)
Leyton Orient (A) 1-2
Southend (H) 1-3
Yeovil (H) 5-0
Walsall (A) 0-3
Scunthorpe (A)
Tranmere (H)
Franchise (A)
Swindon (H)
Colchester (A)
Oldham (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Stockport (H)

5. Leyton Orient
Played 37 points 42 - 10 points needed from 27 points left available.
Currently: 1.14 PPG - Need: 1.11 PPG
Fixtures left:
Hartlepool (A) 1-0
Hereford (A) 1-2
Peterborough (H) 2-3
Brighton (H) 2-1
Carlisle (A) 3-1
Stockport (A) 1-0
Walsall (H)
Oldham (H)
Cheltenham (A)
Leeds (H)
Colchester (H)
Swindon (A)
Northampton (H)
Millwall (A)
Huddersfield (H)

6. Swindon Town
Played 37 points 38 - 14 points needed from 27 points left available.
Currently: 1.03 PPG - Need: 1.56 PPG
Fixtures left:
Scunthorpe (H) 4-2
Hartlepool (H) 0-0-1
Tranmere (A) 0-1
Cheltenham (H) 2-2
Franchise (H) 1-1
Colchester (A) 2-3
Leeds (A) 0-1
Southend (H) 3-0
Hereford (H)
Northampton (A)
Yeovil (A)
Crewe (H)
Brighton (A)
Leyton Orient (H)
Carlisle (A)
Bristol Rovers (H)
Peterborough (A)

7. Northampton Town
Played 35 points 38 - 14 points needed from 33 points left available.
Currently: 1.09 PPG - Need: 1.27 PPG
Fixtures left:
Walsall (H) 0-2
Brighton (A) 1-1
Cheltenham (A) 1-0
Franchise (H)
Tranmere (H) 1-1
Millwall (A) 0-1
Peterborough (A) 0-1
Stockport (H)
Swindon (H)
Carlisle (A)
Yeovil (A)
Scunthorpe (H)
Bristol Rovers (A)
Southend (H)
Leyton Orient (A)
Hereford (H)
Leeds (A)

8. Yeovil Town
Played 36 Points 38 - 14 points needed from 30 points left available.
Currently: 1.06 PPG - Need: 1.40 PPG
Fixtures left:
Oldham (H) 2-2
Crewe (A) 0-2
Walsall (A) 0-2
Hereford (H)
Carlisle (H) 1-1
Leeds (A) 4-0
Brighton (A) 0-5
Franchise (H)
Swindon (H)
Northampton (H)
Stockport (A)
Millwall (H)
Cheltenham (A)
Hartlepool (H)
Tranmere (A)
Colchester (H)

9. Carlisle United
Played 37 Points 42 - 10 points needed from 27 points left available.
Currently: 1.14 PPG - Need: 1.11 PPG
Fixtures left:
Stockport (H) 1-2
Peterborough (A) 0-1
Bristol Rovers (H) 1-1
Crewe (A) 2-1
Yeovil (A) 1-1
Leyton Orient (H) 1-3
Scunthorpe (H) 1-1
Southend (A)
Hereford (H)
Northampton (H)
Leicester (A)
Oldham (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Swindon (H)
Cheltenham (A)
Millwall (H)

10. Hartlepool United
Played 38 Points 43 - 9 points needed from 24 points left available.
Currently: 1.13 PPG - Need: 1.13 PPG
Fixtures left:
Leyton Orient (H) 0-1
Swindon (A) 1-0
Colchester (A) 1-1
Tranmere (H) 2-1
Peterborough (H) 1-2
Stockport (A) 1-2
Cheltenham (A) 0-2
Millwall (H)
Southend (A)
Hereford (H)
Crewe (A)
Scunthorpe (H)
Yeovil (A)
Leeds (H)
Bristol Rovers (A)

Doesn't that say 6 teams are off target and so on current form 52 is unlikely to be the point of safety?

Pretty much....

but then having anything other than 52 wouldnt make sense. Say for example I lowered it to 50 then you could have the reverse 7 teams on target and only 3 not on target

1.375 points per game.

Cheltenham 1/25   Crewe 3/1
Hereford 1/20     Orient 3/1
Brighton 2/5     Northampton 6/1
Yeovil 13/8     Hartlepool 7/1
Swindon 7/4     Carlisle 8/1

Looking at the fixtures, Hartlepool should have a shorter price than 7/1.

Looking at their fixtures and current form I reckon Hartlepool are a snip at 7-1, they could easily go through the trap door.

where be you get this deal Ronnie?

I took if off Crozzer's post on previous page!

Hartlepool are looking dodgy, and Carlisle might be worth a punt if they dont beat Hereford also.

1.14 points per game.

Its also worthing noting that over the season so far we're getting 1.13 ppg

1. Cheltenham Town
Played 38 Points 30 - 22 points needed from 24 points left available.
Currently: 0.79 points per game - Need: 2.75 points per game
Fixtures left:
Leeds (A) 0-2
Millwall (H) 1-3
Northampton (H) 0-1
Swindon (A) 2-2
Leicester (A) 0-4
Hartlepool (H) 2-0
Tranmere (H) 1-0
Huddersfield (A) 2-2
Oldham (H) 1-1
Walsall (A)
Leyton Orient (H)
Peterborough (A)
Crewe (A)
Carlisle (H)
Scunthorpe (A)
Southend (A)

2. Crewe
Played 39 Points 43 - 9 points needed from 21 points left available.
Currently: 1.10 PPG - Need: 1.29 PPG
Fixtures left:
Huddersfield (H) 3-1
Yeovil (H) 2-0
Brighton (A) 4-0
Carlisle (H) 1-2
Hereford (H) 2-1
Walsall (A) 1-1
Colchester (A) 1-0
Bristol Rovers (H) 1-1
Leeds (H) 2-3
Franchise (A) 2-2
Millwall (H)
Swindon (A)
Hartlepool (H)
Oldham (A)
Cheltenham (H)
Stockport (A)
Leicester (H)

3. Hereford
Played 37 Points 33 - 19 points needed from 27 points left available.
Currently: 0.89 PPG - Need: 2.11 PPG
Fixtures left:
Peterborough (H) 0-1
Leyton Orient (H) 2-1
Yeovil (A)
Crewe (A) 1-2
Bristol Rovers (H) 0-3
Southend (H) 0-1
Scunthorpe (A) 0-3
Swindon (A) 0-3
Carlisle (A) 2-1
Huddersfield (H)
Hartlepool (A)
Leicester (H)
Tranmere (A)
Colchester (H)
Northampton (A)
Franchise (H)

4. Brighton
Played 37 points 35 - 17 points needed from 27 points left available.
Currently: 0.95 PPG - Need: 1.89 PPG
Fixtures left:
Millwall (A) 1-0
Northampton (H) 1-1
Crewe (H) 0-4
Bristol Rovers (A)
Leyton Orient (A) 1-2
Southend (H) 1-3
Yeovil (H) 5-0
Walsall (A) 0-3
Scunthorpe (A) 0-2
Tranmere (H)
Franchise (A)
Swindon (H)
Colchester (A)
Oldham (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Stockport (H)

5. Leyton Orient
Played 38 points 42 - 10 points needed from 24 points left available.
Currently: 1.11 PPG - Need: 1.25 PPG
Fixtures left:
Hartlepool (A) 1-0
Hereford (A) 1-2
Peterborough (H) 2-3
Brighton (H) 2-1
Carlisle (A) 3-1
Stockport (A) 1-0
Walsall (H) 0-1
Oldham (H)
Cheltenham (A)
Leeds (H)
Colchester (H)
Swindon (A)
Northampton (H)
Millwall (A)
Huddersfield (H)

6. Swindon Town
Played 39 points 44 - 8 points needed from 21 points left available.
Currently: 1.13 PPG - Need: 1.14 PPG
Fixtures left:
Scunthorpe (H) 4-2
Hartlepool (H) 0-0-1
Tranmere (A) 0-1
Cheltenham (H) 2-2
Franchise (H) 1-1
Colchester (A) 2-3
Leeds (A) 0-1
Southend (H) 3-0
Hereford (H) 3-0
Northampton (A) 4-3
Yeovil (A)
Crewe (H)
Brighton (A)
Leyton Orient (H)
Carlisle (A)
Bristol Rovers (H)
Peterborough (A)

7. Northampton Town
Played 37 points 41 - 11 points needed from 27 points left available.
Currently: 1.11 PPG - Need: 1.22 PPG
Fixtures left:
Walsall (H) 0-2
Brighton (A) 1-1
Cheltenham (A) 1-0
Franchise (H)
Tranmere (H) 1-1
Millwall (A) 0-1
Peterborough (A) 0-1
Stockport (H) 4-0
Swindon (H) 3-4
Carlisle (A)
Yeovil (A)
Scunthorpe (H)
Bristol Rovers (A)
Southend (H)
Leyton Orient (A)
Hereford (H)
Leeds (A)

8. Yeovil Town
Played 37 Points 39 - 13 points needed from 27 points left available.
Currently: 1.05 PPG - Need: 1.44 PPG
Fixtures left:
Oldham (H) 2-2
Crewe (A) 0-2
Walsall (A) 0-2
Hereford (H)
Carlisle (H) 1-1
Leeds (A) 4-0
Brighton (A) 0-5
Franchise (H) 0-0
Swindon (H)
Northampton (H)
Stockport (A)
Millwall (H)
Cheltenham (A)
Hartlepool (H)
Tranmere (A)
Colchester (H)

9. Carlisle United
Played 39 Points 42 - 10 points needed from 21 points left available.
Currently: 1.08 PPG - Need: 1.43 PPG
Fixtures left:
Stockport (H) 1-2
Peterborough (A) 0-1
Bristol Rovers (H) 1-1
Crewe (A) 2-1
Yeovil (A) 1-1
Leyton Orient (H) 1-3
Scunthorpe (H) 1-1
Southend (A) 3-0
Hereford (H) 1-2
Northampton (H)
Leicester (A)
Oldham (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Swindon (H)
Cheltenham (A)
Millwall (H)

10. Hartlepool United
Played 39 Points 43 - 9 points needed from 21 points left available.
Currently: 1.10 PPG - Need: 1.29 PPG
Fixtures left:
Leyton Orient (H) 0-1
Swindon (A) 1-0
Colchester (A) 1-1
Tranmere (H) 2-1
Peterborough (H) 1-2
Stockport (A) 1-2
Cheltenham (A) 0-2
Millwall (H) 2-3
Southend (A)
Hereford (H)
Crewe (A)
Scunthorpe (H)
Yeovil (A)
Leeds (H)
Bristol Rovers (A)

Current PPG leaves the table looking like this (in brackets is points gained between now and the end of the season

Swindon Town - 52 (+8)
Northampton Town - 51 (+8)
Crewe - 51 (+8)
Hartlepool United - 51 (+8)
Leyton Orient - 51 (+9)
Carlisle United  - 50 (+8)
-----------------------------------------
Yeovil Town - 48 (+9)
Brighton - 44 (+9)
Hereford - 41 (+8)
Cheltenham Town - 36 (+6)

50 to stay up

form table of bottom 10 since I started this thread, different amount of games played....


Crewe - WWWLWDWDLD - 18 points

Swindon Town - WLLDDLLWWW - 14 points

Leyton Orient - WLLWWWL - 12 points

Cheltenham Town - LLLDLWWDD - 9 points

Northampton Town - LDWDLLWL - 8 points

Brighton - WDLLLWLL - 7 points
Hartlepool United - LWDWLLLL - 7 points

Carlisle United - LLDWDLDLL - 6 points
Hereford - LWLLLLLW - 6 points

Yeovil Town - DLLDLLD - 3 points

You DV have far too much fucking time on your hands. Have you tried wanking?

Orient and Brighton have tricky run-ins

So he could get something different on his hands for a change?

So do we, 5 six pointers against fellow relegation strugglers, a local derby then the club who's currently 2nd.  Would much prefer to have a couple of mid table teams with nothing to play for.

At the end of the day, it's down to ourselves. If we win at Yeovil, we will go along way to keep us up because we extend the gap between ourselves and the final relegation place.

Even though there is a few sides just out of the relegation zone dropping like a stone, I get the feeling that they'll stay out of it because Yeovil and Brighton are so poor.

What the fuck has happened to Brighton? Weren't they in the play off places in the first half of the season?

I got to admit if we beat Brighton in a few weeks time which virtually relegates them, I will enjoy that after the pain of the play-off semi defeat, and the players antics a couple of years ago when we were doing the protests when it looked like that could've been the last Town game.

1.33 points per game.

form table of bottom 10 since I started this thread, different amount of games played....


Crewe - WWWLWDWDLDL - 18 points

Leyton Orient - WLLWWWLW - 15 points

Swindon Town - WLLDDLLWWWL - 14 points

Cheltenham Town - LLLDLWWDDD - 10 points

Northampton Town - LDWDLLWLD - 9 points

Brighton - WDLLLWLLD - 8 points

Hartlepool United - LWDWLLLLL - 7 points
Carlisle United - LLDWDLDLLD - 7 points

Hereford - LWLLLLLWL - 6 points
Yeovil Town - DLLDLLDW - 6 points


Leyton Orient - 53 (+8)
Northampton Town - 51 (+7)
Swindon Town - 51 (+7)
Yeovil Town - 51 (+9)
Carlisle United  - 50 (+7)
Crewe - 50 (+7)
-----------------------------------------
Hartlepool United - 50 (+7)
Brighton - 44 (+9)
Hereford - 40 (+7)
Cheltenham Town - 36 (+5)


Current PPG leaves it like this.

50 points to stay up.

Seem as this table doesnt really mean much after points the teams are in alphabetical order.


1. Cheltenham Town
Played 39 Points 31 - 21 points needed from 21 points left available.
Currently: 0.79 points per game - Need: 3.00 points per game
Cheltenham must win all their remaining games to reach 52 points
Fixtures left:
Leeds (A) 0-2
Millwall (H) 1-3
Northampton (H) 0-1
Swindon (A) 2-2
Leicester (A) 0-4
Hartlepool (H) 2-0
Tranmere (H) 1-0
Huddersfield (A) 2-2
Oldham (H) 1-1
Walsall (A) 1-1
Leyton Orient (H)
Peterborough (A)
Crewe (A)
Carlisle (H)
Scunthorpe (A)
Southend (A)

2. Crewe
Played 40 Points 43 - 9 points needed from 18 points left available.
Currently: 1.08 PPG - Need: 1.50 PPG
Fixtures left:
Huddersfield (H) 3-1
Yeovil (H) 2-0
Brighton (A) 4-0
Carlisle (H) 1-2
Hereford (H) 2-1
Walsall (A) 1-1
Colchester (A) 1-0
Bristol Rovers (H) 1-1
Leeds (H) 2-3
Franchise (A) 2-2
Millwall (H) 0-1
Swindon (A)
Hartlepool (H)
Oldham (A)
Cheltenham (H)
Stockport (A)
Leicester (H)

3. Hereford
Played 38 Points 33 - 19 points needed from 24 points left available.
Currently: 0.87 PPG - Need: 2.38 PPG
Fixtures left:
Peterborough (H) 0-1
Leyton Orient (H) 2-1
Yeovil (A)
Crewe (A) 1-2
Bristol Rovers (H) 0-3
Southend (H) 0-1
Scunthorpe (A) 0-3
Swindon (A) 0-3
Carlisle (A) 2-1
Huddersfield (H) 0-1
Hartlepool (A)
Leicester (H)
Tranmere (A)
Colchester (H)
Northampton (A)
Franchise (H)

4. Brighton
Played 38 points 36 - 16 points needed from 24 points left available.
Currently: 0.95 PPG - Need: 2.00 PPG
Fixtures left:
Millwall (A) 1-0
Northampton (H) 1-1
Crewe (H) 0-4
Bristol Rovers (A)
Leyton Orient (A) 1-2
Southend (H) 1-3
Yeovil (H) 5-0
Walsall (A) 0-3
Scunthorpe (A) 0-2
Tranmere (H) 0-0
Franchise (A)
Swindon (H)
Colchester (A)
Oldham (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Stockport (H)

5. Leyton Orient
Played 39 points 45 - 7 points needed from 21 points left available.
Currently: 1.15 PPG - Need: 1.00 PPG
Fixtures left:
Hartlepool (A) 1-0
Hereford (A) 1-2
Peterborough (H) 2-3
Brighton (H) 2-1
Carlisle (A) 3-1
Stockport (A) 1-0
Walsall (H) 0-1
Oldham (H) 2-1
Cheltenham (A)
Leeds (H)
Colchester (H)
Swindon (A)
Northampton (H)
Millwall (A)
Huddersfield (H)

6. Swindon Town
Played 40 points 44 - 8 points needed from 18 points left available.
Currently: 1.10 PPG - Need: 1.33 PPG
Fixtures left:
Scunthorpe (H) 4-2
Hartlepool (H) 0-0-1
Tranmere (A) 0-1
Cheltenham (H) 2-2
Franchise (H) 1-1
Colchester (A) 2-3
Leeds (A) 0-1
Southend (H) 3-0
Hereford (H) 3-0
Northampton (A) 4-3
Yeovil (A) 0-1
Crewe (H)
Brighton (A)
Leyton Orient (H)
Carlisle (A)
Bristol Rovers (H)
Peterborough (A)

7. Northampton Town
Played 38 points 42 - 10 points needed from 24 points left available.
Currently: 1.11 PPG - Need: 1.25 PPG
Fixtures left:
Walsall (H) 0-2
Brighton (A) 1-1
Cheltenham (A) 1-0
Franchise (H)
Tranmere (H) 1-1
Millwall (A) 0-1
Peterborough (A) 0-1
Stockport (H) 4-0
Swindon (H) 3-4
Carlisle (A) 1-1
Yeovil (A)
Scunthorpe (H)
Bristol Rovers (A)
Southend (H)
Leyton Orient (A)
Hereford (H)
Leeds (A)

8. Yeovil Town
Played 38 Points 42 - 10 points needed from 24 points left available.
Currently: 1.11 PPG - Need: 1.25 PPG
Fixtures left:
Oldham (H) 2-2
Crewe (A) 0-2
Walsall (A) 0-2
Hereford (H)
Carlisle (H) 1-1
Leeds (A) 0-4
Brighton (A) 0-5
Franchise (H) 0-0
Swindon (H) 1-0
Northampton (H)
Stockport (A)
Millwall (H)
Cheltenham (A)
Hartlepool (H)
Tranmere (A)
Colchester (H)

9. Carlisle United
Played 40 Points 43 - 9 points needed from 18 points left available.
Currently: 1.08 PPG - Need: 1.50 PPG
Fixtures left:
Stockport (H) 1-2
Peterborough (A) 0-1
Bristol Rovers (H) 1-1
Crewe (A) 2-1
Yeovil (A) 1-1
Leyton Orient (H) 1-3
Scunthorpe (H) 1-1
Southend (A) 0-3
Hereford (H) 1-2
Northampton (H) 1-1
Leicester (A)
Oldham (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Swindon (H)
Cheltenham (A)
Millwall (H)

10. Hartlepool United
Played 40 Points 43 - 9 points needed from 18 points left available.
Currently: 1.08 PPG - Need: 1.50 PPG
Fixtures left:
Leyton Orient (H) 0-1
Swindon (A) 1-0
Colchester (A) 1-1
Tranmere (H) 2-1
Peterborough (H) 1-2
Stockport (A) 1-2
Cheltenham (A) 0-2
Millwall (H) 2-3
Southend (A) 2-3
Hereford (H)
Crewe (A)
Scunthorpe (H)
Yeovil (A)
Leeds (H)
Bristol Rovers (A)

It's all set up for us beating Brighton even though that won't happen.

Having performed an in depth analysis, I reckon 50 points will be enough for us to stay up.

Cheltenham, Hereford and Brighton are certainties for the drop barring a miracle of epic proportions (Brighton would need to win 5 of their last 8 games). So that leaves one open spot.

For Swindon to fill it (on 50 points) we'd need the five teams below us to all win 3 of their remaining games (or win 2 and draw another 3) which I can't see happening. So 2 more wins and we'll be safe.

52 points is pretty much the target for any season, so usually the requirement is less than 52.  I did a couple of calculations and came up with 50 or 51 to stay up.  So I agree with your estimate.

I think after the miracle Invincible goal we ended up on 52 points (I think) to stay up.  Teams have stayed up with 48 points.

Even though Yeovil won today, I can see them losing at home to Northampton on Tuesday night, and struggling into Div II..  Also, I don't know where the next points are coming from for Hartlepool. 

All Swindon had to do was to come up with a half decent performance today and we would have been almost out of it.

I reckon it will be Carlisle joining the other 3, they have probably got the worst run in of the teams at the bottom.

I had a quick look at previous seasons and the big difference is the number of clubs still involved in the relegation battle, there is just no way every team will be able to pull something out of the bag so it could be a relatively low points total to stay up. Maybe less than 50 will do it.

I'm not sure your analysis is very sound...atm the league table is skewed by several teams having games in hand...we're a point better off than 05/06...but that season most teams had played more or less 40 games or 41. We can drop no doubt about it...now luck will play a major part...injuries, dodgy refs etc...if planning, strategy etc had anything to do with it, we'd have taken a 0-0 at Yeovil and things would have looked comfortable.

Such a cynic :)

Based on form over the last 8 games it will end up like this:

20. Carlisle 49 pts
21. Yeovil 48 pts
22. Brighton 41 pts
23. Cheltenham 40 pts
24. Hereford 39 pts

Form goes out of the window a bit, at this stage of the season, what you want is a few games against mid table sides, with nothing to play for....namely right now, Stockport, Oldham, Huddersfield, Walsall...or games against teams that have already gone in the last 2 or 3 games.

What you don't want is local derbies, and 6 pointers. We've got the toughest run in, no easy games and an appalling record against the leagues seemingly poorer sides.

How do you explain we've taken 8 points off the top 4, but only 5 against the bottom 4.

Crewe is massive...I believe they're a bit more direct these days, but we haven't beaten them at the CG for over 10 years....Gradi's sides have just played through our weak midfield, and exploited dodgy defending on the counter.

Anyone remmember losing to them a week after Scummers FA Cup? Played off the park in fact.

That was a hard afternoon.

Yep...they had Ashton and Hulse up front...we did get some chances, because that's the way they played, but they were very good.

 It may have been a couple of seasons previous, when they had been struggling and Danny Murphy came back on loan, to help out...think their midfield for the game was Murphy and Seth Johnson, when he was good. They took the piss.

A little research has revealed, that it was just about 10 years ago exactly...in the 2nd tier.  Jimmy Quinn fielded a very attacking line up....Mark Walters, Ty Gooden wide left and right, Chris Hay, Iffy and George Ndah...through the middle.

Unfortunately, our central mid consisted of Booby Howe  :(

David Kerslake was also playing...

Not sure we've got the worst, Northampton have got 3 against relegation teams and 4 against promotion teams.

Not sure about form going out of the window either, shit teams tend to always play shit in my book. Only 3 of the bottom 10 teams have taken more than 9 points from their last 8 games (us, Cheltenham and Orient).

....and crewe?

Northampton's run in doesn't look too good, apart from maybe catching Hereford when they may be already down...they do have the best goal difference of the strugglers...

Form though really does go out of the window...yesterday being a classic example...Yeovil no wins since early February...no wins under Skiverton...but their players were prepared to put a bit of effort in because they could see the trap door open otherewise. 

If form does not matter why you going on about us not beating crewe at home for a while

It's to do with factors like state and size of the pitch, approach of the coach etc.

 In the case of Crewe...I did mention that apparently they're a bit more direct under Thordarsson, but Gradi's sides and then last season under Holland always found the CG to their liking.

 Clearly the fact they haven't lost here for some years doesn't mean they wont on Saturday...but it does mean within their coaching set up, they know how to play at the CG.

 The first thing that Byrne said yesterday, was that Yeovil had done their homework and played in a style to nullify us...

Have taken 9 points from their last 8 games.

1. Cheltenham Town
Played 40 Points 31 - 21 points needed from 18 points left available.
Currently: 0.78 points per game - Need: N/A Max of 49
Fixtures left:
Peterborough (A)
Yeovil (H)
Crewe (A)
Carlisle (H)
Scunthorpe (A)
Southend (A)

2. Crewe
Played 41 Points 44 - 8 points needed from 15 points left available.
Currently: 1.07 PPG - Need: 1.60 PPG
Fixtures left:
Hartlepool (H)
Oldham (A)
Cheltenham (H)
Stockport (A)
Leicester (H)

3. Hereford
Played 39 Points 33 - 19 points needed from 21 points left available.
Currently: 0.85 PPG - Need: 2.71 PPG
Fixtures left:
Yeovil (A)
Brighton (H)
Leicester (H)
Tranmere (A)
Colchester (H)
Northampton (A)
Franchise (H)

4. Brighton
Played 39 points 36 - 16 points needed from 21 points left available.
Currently: 0.92 PPG - Need: 2.29 PPG
Fixtures left:
Hereford (A)
Bristol Rovers (A)
Swindon (H)
Colchester (A)
Oldham (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Stockport (H)

5. Leyton Orient
Played 40 points 48 - 4 points needed from 18 points left available.
Currently: 1.20 PPG - Need: 0.67 PPG
Fixtures left:
Leeds (H)
Colchester (H)
Swindon (A)
Northampton (H)
Millwall (A)
Huddersfield (H)

6. Swindon Town
Played 41 points 45 - 7 points needed from 15 points left available.
Currently: 1.10 PPG - Need: 1.40 PPG
Fixtures left:
Brighton (A)
Leyton Orient (H)
Carlisle (A)
Bristol Rovers (H)
Peterborough (A)

7. Northampton Town
Played 39 points 42 - 10 points needed from 21 points left available.
Currently: 1.07 PPG - Need: 1.43 PPG
Fixtures left:
Franchise (H)
Scunthorpe (H)
Bristol Rovers (A)
Southend (H)
Leyton Orient (A)
Hereford (H)
Leeds (A)

8. Yeovil Town
Played 40 Points 46 - 6 points needed from 18 points left available.
Currently: 1.15 PPG - Need: 1.00 PPG
Fixtures left:
Hereford (H)
Millwall (H)
Cheltenham (A)
Hartlepool (H)
Tranmere (A)
Colchester (H)

9. Carlisle United
Played 41 Points 44 - 8 points needed from 15 points left available.
Currently: 1.07 PPG - Need: 1.60 PPG
Fixtures left:
Oldham (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Swindon (H)
Cheltenham (A)
Millwall (H)

10. Hartlepool United
Played 41 Points 46 - 6 points needed from 15 points left available.
Currently: 1.12 PPG - Need: 1.20 PPG
Fixtures left:
Crewe (A)
Scunthorpe (H)
Yeovil (A)
Leeds (H)
Bristol Rovers (A)

 looking at those fixtures, you can see why we're now favourites to drop.

 All the opposition have got easy home games against beatable mid table opponents.

 We've just got 6 pointers and a derby + a team who may be going for the title away.

 At no time this season have our side shown any appetite for a scrap as the last two games have shown...Hpool may just find it difficult.

Except for the 3 games before the last 2 then Reg? Short minded. Man you're depressing and I thought I was bad.

Show me where we are favourites for the drop please Reg.

What happens if Southampton go out of business?

Only 2 teams will come down to League 1. They can't mess with the promotion play-off format in League 1 or 2, and they can't relegate an extra team from CCC, so the only possible solution I can see is that only 3 go down from League 1?

Yes that's what will happen.

You are correct Michael.

Of course it was good to win...but I wouldn't have called those scraps, we played well and won well, but at this stage of the season we need to be able to win ugly, or grind out a 0-0 away from home in a 6 pointer.  Had we a couple of games v an Oldham Walsall or Stockport, I'd be reasonably confident of getting the points.

 Brighton have just about the worst home record in the league, when they visited the CG they were terrible, yet they've beaten us twice already this season.

 They will be desperate, because if they lose to us they're as good as gone, so it will be a scrap, and I just can't see us getting up for it.

Will you be travelling down to the Withdean Reg?

I'm tempted :)

I'm not planning to atm...but it might change in the week.

im going to withdean you bunch of plastics.

Have another look at the fixtures, paying close attention to Northampton's (4 against play off teams, 2 against relegation teams, 1 against mid table teams). Still think we're favourites?

I'm guessing yes. It's his opinion :)

It'll be worth keeping an eye on Hereford vs. Brighton on Tuesday.

Yeah...I've looked I wouldn't mind having to play Scunny Sarfend and Hereford, two who give you a chance and 1 doomed....we've beaten all 3 relatively recently...I can easliy see Cobblers getting 8 points from their home games.

It will come down to Northamptons home games against Scunthorpe and Franchise.

 At least Rotherham will be a new ground....the Don Valley Stadium.  Apparently it has the most powerful floodlights in the country...which should be useful for the inevitable Tues night in Feb fixture.

Bit upset to see Exeter making a late run for automatic ... it looks like Rochdale are winning their annual battle against promotion.

:D

They fear change.

 :eek: Leave Exeter out of this Reg!

Yeah reg you bully. Leave Exeter alone. You bully. bully bully bully bully.

bully.

 Did you know Exeter has the narrowest street in the country measuring 60 cm at its narrowest point?  Would you be able to walk down there now fB?

I did know that. Walked down it on occasion. Very Exciting.

form table of bottom 10 since I started this  posting in this thread, different amount of games played....


Crewe - WWWLWDWDLDLD - 19 points
Leyton Orient - WLLWWWLWWD - 19 points

Swindon Town - WLLDDLLWWWLD - 15 points

Yeovil Town - DLLDLLDWWDW - 13 points

Brighton - WDLLLWLLDLW - 11 points
Cheltenham Town - LLLDLWWDDDLD - 11 points

Hartlepool United - LWDWLLLLLW - 10 points

Carlisle United - LLDWDLDLLDDD - 9 points
Northampton Town - LDWDLLWLDLL - 9 points

Hereford - LWLLLLLWLLL - 6 points


Leyton Orient - 55 (+6)
Yeovil Town - 55 (+6)
Hartlepool United - 52 (+6)
Swindon Town - 51 (+6)
Carlisle United  - 49 (+4)
Crewe - 49 (+5)
-----------------------------------------
Northampton Town - 48 (+6)
Brighton - 45 (+6)
Hereford - 38 (+6)
Cheltenham Town - 36 (+4)


Current PPG leaves it like this.

49 points to stay up.

Seem as this table doesnt really mean much after points the teams are in alphabetical order.



1. Cheltenham Town
Played 41 Points 32 - 20 points needed from 15 points left available.
Currently: 0.78 points per game - Need: 4.00 points per game
Fixtures left:
Yeovil (H)
Crewe (A)
Carlisle (H)
Scunthorpe (A)
Southend (A)

2. Crewe
Played 41 Points 44 - 8 points needed from 15 points left available.
Currently: 1.07 PPG - Need: 1.60 PPG
Fixtures left:
Hartlepool (H)
Oldham (A)
Cheltenham (H)
Stockport (A)
Leicester (H)

3. Hereford
Played 40 Points 33 - 19 points needed from 18 points left available.
Currently: 0.83 PPG - Need: 3.17 PPG
Fixtures left:
Leicester (H)
Tranmere (A)
Colchester (H)
Yeovil (A)
Northampton (A)
Franchise (H)

4. Brighton
Played 40 points 39 - 13 points needed from 18 points left available.
Currently: 0.98 PPG - Need: 2.17 PPG
Fixtures left:
Swindon (H)
Colchester (A)
Oldham (H)
Bristol Rovers (A)
Huddersfield (A)
Stockport (H)

5. Leyton Orient
Played 41 points 49 - 3 points needed from 15 points left available.
Currently: 1.20 PPG - Need: 0.60 PPG
Fixtures left:
Colchester (H)
Swindon (A)
Northampton (H)
Millwall (A)
Huddersfield (H)

6. Swindon Town
Played 41 points 45 - 7 points needed from 15 points left available.
Currently: 1.10 PPG - Need: 1.40 PPG
Fixtures left:
Brighton (A)
Leyton Orient (H)
Carlisle (A)
Bristol Rovers (H)
Peterborough (A)

7. Northampton Town
Played 40 points 42 - 10 points needed from 18 points left available.
Currently: 1.05 PPG - Need: 1.67 PPG
Fixtures left:
Southend (H)
Leyton Orient (A)
Scunthorpe (H)
Hereford (H)
Franchise (H)
Leeds (A)

8. Yeovil Town
Played 41 Points 49 - 3 points needed from 15 points left available.
Currently: 1.20 PPG - Need: 0.60 PPG
Fixtures left:
Cheltenham (A)
Hartlepool (H)
Hereford (H)
Tranmere (A)
Colchester (H)

9. Carlisle United
Played 42 Points 45 - 7 points needed from 12 points left available.
Currently: 1.07 PPG - Need: 1.75 PPG
Fixtures left:
Huddersfield (A)
Swindon (H)
Cheltenham (A)
Millwall (H)

10. Hartlepool United
Played 41 Points 46 - 6 points needed from 15 points left available.
Currently: 1.12 PPG - Need: 1.20 PPG
Fixtures left:
Crewe (A)
Scunthorpe (H)
Yeovil (A)
Leeds (H)
Bristol Rovers (A)

If Cheltenham get 4 points per game then they deserve to stay up :)

Win against Orient and Rovers and we should be alright hopefully. Don't think we will get anything at Peterborough and not optimistic about Brighton.

I guess if we need another point or so we'll be looking at picking soemthing up from Brighton or Carlisle...

1. Cheltenham Town
Played 41 Points 32 - 20 points needed from 15 points left available.
Currently: 0.78 points per game - Need: 4.00 points per game
Cheltenham can no longer reach 52 points. Their maximum is now 47. Mathmatically they can still catch Hereford, Brighton, Northampton, Crewe, Carlisle & Hartlepool - Although it would mean Cheltenham need maximum points and all the others pick up 0 points which probably isnt even possible - As good as RELEGATED
Fixtures left:
Leeds (A) 0-2
Millwall (H) 1-3
Northampton (H) 0-1
Swindon (A) 2-2
Leicester (A) 0-4
Hartlepool (H) 2-0
Tranmere (H) 1-0
Huddersfield (A) 2-2
Oldham (H) 1-1
Walsall (A) 1-1
Leyton Orient (H) 0-1
Peterborough (A) 1-1
Yeovil (H)
Crewe (A)
Carlisle (H)
Scunthorpe (A)
Southend (A)

2. Crewe
Played 42 Points 45 - 7 points needed from 12 points left available.
Currently: 1.07 PPG - Need: 1.75 PPG
Fixtures left:
Huddersfield (H) 3-1
Yeovil (H) 2-0
Brighton (A) 4-0
Carlisle (H) 1-2
Hereford (H) 2-1
Walsall (A) 1-1
Colchester (A) 1-0
Bristol Rovers (H) 1-1
Leeds (H) 2-3
Franchise (A) 2-2
Millwall (H) 0-1
Swindon (A) 0-0
Hartlepool (H) 0-0
Oldham (A)
Cheltenham (H)
Stockport (A)
Leicester (H)

3. Hereford
Played 41 Points 33 - 19 points needed from 15 points left available.
Currently: 0.80 PPG - Need: 3.80 PPG
Hereford can no longer reach 52 points. Their maximum is now 48. Mathmatically they can still catch Brighton, Northampton, Crewe, Carlisle, Swindon & Hartlepool   - Although it would mean Hereford need maximum points and all the others pick up 0 points which probably isnt even possible - As good as RELEGATED
Fixtures left:
Peterborough (H) 0-1
Leyton Orient (H) 2-1
Yeovil (A)
Crewe (A) 1-2
Bristol Rovers (H) 0-3
Southend (H) 0-1
Scunthorpe (A) 0-3
Swindon (A) 0-3
Carlisle (A) 2-1
Huddersfield (H) 0-1
Hartlepool (A) 2-4
Brighton (H) 1-2
Leicester (H) 1-3
Tranmere (A)
Colchester (H)
Yeovil (A)
Northampton (A)
Franchise (H)

4. Brighton
Played 41 points 39 - 13 points needed from 15 points left available.
Currently: 0.98 PPG - Need: 2.60 PPG
Fixtures left:
Millwall (A) 1-0
Northampton (H) 1-1
Crewe (H) 0-4
Leyton Orient (A) 1-2
Southend (H) 1-3
Yeovil (H) 5-0
Walsall (A) 0-3
Scunthorpe (A) 0-2
Tranmere (H) 0-0
Franchise (A) 0-2
Hereford (A) 2-1
Swindon (H) 2-3
Colchester (A)
Oldham (H)
Bristol Rovers (A)
Huddersfield (A)
Stockport (H)

5. Leyton Orient
Played 42 points 52 - 0 points needed from 12 points left available.
Currently: 1.24 PPG - Need: 0.00 PPG
Congratulations Leyton Orient are 99.9% safe now
Fixtures left:
Hartlepool (A) 1-0
Hereford (A) 1-2
Peterborough (H) 2-3
Brighton (H) 2-1
Carlisle (A) 3-1
Stockport (A) 1-0
Walsall (H) 0-1
Oldham (H) 2-1
Cheltenham (A) 1-0
Leeds (H) 2-2
Colchester (H) 2-1
Swindon (A)
Northampton (H)
Millwall (A)
Huddersfield (H)

6. Swindon Town
Played 42 points 48 - 4 points needed from 12 points left available.
Currently: 1.14 PPG - Need: 1.00 PPG
Fixtures left:
Scunthorpe (H) 4-2
Hartlepool (H) 0-0-1
Tranmere (A) 0-1
Cheltenham (H) 2-2
Franchise (H) 1-1
Colchester (A) 2-3
Leeds (A) 0-1
Southend (H) 3-0
Hereford (H) 3-0
Northampton (A) 4-3
Yeovil (A) 0-1
Crewe (H) 0-0
Brighton (A) 3-2
Leyton Orient (H)
Carlisle (A)
Bristol Rovers (H)
Peterborough (A)

7. Northampton Town
Played 40 points 42 - 10 points needed from 18 points left available.
Currently: 1.05 PPG - Need: 1.67 PPG
Fixtures left:
Walsall (H) 0-2
Brighton (A) 1-1
Cheltenham (A) 1-0
Tranmere (H) 1-1
Millwall (A) 0-1
Peterborough (A) 0-1
Stockport (H) 4-0
Swindon (H) 3-4
Carlisle (A) 1-1
Yeovil (A) 0-1
Bristol Rovers (A) 0-1
Southend (H)
Leyton Orient (A)
Scunthorpe (H)
Hereford (H)
Franchise (H)
Leeds (A)

8. Yeovil Town
Played 41 Points 49 - 3 points needed from 15 points left available.
Currently: 1.20 PPG - Need: 0.60 PPG
Fixtures left:
Oldham (H) 2-2
Crewe (A) 0-2
Walsall (A) 0-2
Carlisle (H) 1-1
Leeds (A) 0-4
Brighton (A) 0-5
Franchise (H) 0-0
Swindon (H) 1-0
Northampton (H) 1-0
Stockport (A) 0-0
Millwall (H) 2-0
Cheltenham (A)
Hartlepool (H)
Hereford (H)
Tranmere (A)
Colchester (H)

9. Carlisle United
Played 42 Points 45 - 7 points needed from 12 points left available.
Currently: 1.07 PPG - Need: 1.75 PPG
Fixtures left:
Stockport (H) 1-2
Peterborough (A) 0-1
Bristol Rovers (H) 1-1
Crewe (A) 2-1
Yeovil (A) 1-1
Leyton Orient (H) 1-3
Scunthorpe (H) 1-1
Southend (A) 0-3
Hereford (H) 1-2
Northampton (H) 1-1
Leicester (A) 2-2
Oldham (H) 1-1
Huddersfield (A)
Swindon (H)
Cheltenham (A)
Millwall (H)

10. Hartlepool United
Played 42 Points 47 - 5 points needed from 12 points left available.
Currently: 1.12 PPG - Need: 1.25 PPG
Fixtures left:
Leyton Orient (H) 0-1
Swindon (A) 1-0
Colchester (A) 1-1
Tranmere (H) 2-1
Peterborough (H) 1-2
Stockport (A) 1-2
Cheltenham (A) 0-2
Millwall (H) 2-3
Southend (A) 2-3
Hereford (H) 4-2
Crewe (A) 0-0
Scunthorpe (H)
Yeovil (A)
Leeds (H)
Bristol Rovers (A)


Leyton Orient safe.
Cheltenham down on Monday.
Hereford to follow
Brighton look doomed.
One place left to play for.

Cheltenham 1/100 

Hereford 1/100 

Brighton 1/6 

Northampton 11/8 

Crewe 13/8 

Carlisle 5/2 

Hartlepool 5/1

Swindon 6/1

Yeovil 20/1

Leyton Orient 40/1

Cobblers to go down I reckon!

Im hoping Harlepool, not only is it fucking miles away but Wilson should be able to nick there best 2 players whoever they maybe.

For purely selfish reasons I hope Hartlepool survive.

Crewe and Brighton would be my drop predictions.

Hartlepool do seem to have the toughest run-in, 5/1 looks well over the odds to me.

I want H'pool to stay up, great away weekend.

Northampton will go down. They've been shit as of late

Northampton have a really tough run in as well. They do have Hereford at home. But their other games are Leeds, Scunthorpe and McDons. Tough

I'm still convinced that 49 points will mean safety, maybe even the 48 we already have (due to our goal difference).

Cheltenham and Hereford can't catch us and Brighton would need to get 10 points from 5 games and I can't see them doing that, which leaves just one place. Comes down to whether Northampton can catch us, they have a nightmare of a run in and I can't see them getting 6 points myself.

Then there is Crewe and Carlisle (and to a lesser degree Hartlepool) - we'd only need one of them to have nightmare and lose all their remaining games and we're already safe. Crewe and Carlisle would both have to get at least 4 points from their final 4 games to go above us, I can't see them both doing that.

I know everyone says form goes out of the window at this time of the season but I don't buy it myself. If you've been shit over 42 games, you're likely to be just as shit in the final 4. Plus I guarantee you that every single team below us would very happily change places with us at the moment.

I won't rest until we're mathematically safe. As long as Northampton and others have games in hand (regardless who it's against) we can easily drop again.

Although, I'm currently content because after Leeds away a month ago it looked bleak.

Nothing really changed today with Carlisle and Cobblers losing.

I still think Northampton will go down.

 Incidentally  Bormuff are back in the shit..after a couple of defeats.

 We can expect someone down there to feel the hangman's noose and make a bolt for it...Brighton have home games v Oldham and Stockport, they may be shit at home, but if you could pick a couple of fixtures, they'd do.

 Going back to Bormuff...two of there last 3 are Grimsby and Chester.

Hoping Bournemouth and Grimbsby survive, at least they have reasonable support. Chester FC is a joke of a club, the Conference awaits.

 Agree Chester do seem a bit pointless.

 Dagenham and Redbridge. :cry:  Fuck me, what a depressing thought.

 We couldn't even beat Dagenham on its own in the 80's....Redbridge is massive and weird.

Chester's ground  is half Welsh. For that reason they should go down.

 :D

I think it's a lot more than half Welsh actually. I think the letter box for the club offices is in England but everything else is in Wales. So on this technicality they can play in the English (non)League. Mind you, they probably wouldn't even set the League of Wales alight 8)