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25% => Other Football Stuff => Topic started by: Simon Pieman on Sunday, May 11, 2008, 10:06:32



Title: Football betting, baby
Post by: Simon Pieman on Sunday, May 11, 2008, 10:06:32
Spied a good one for all those matched betters out there. On Boylesports Blackburn are 3.6 to win. The lay on Betfair is 3.4 at the moment.

If you bet £50 at Boyle's today you get a £50 free bet. By my reckoning you can make a £1 profit at the current prices and also get the free £50 bet.

I think I will make about £35 today using a free bet. I'm still chipping away at the further free bet offers at Boyle's and Bet365 but this is requiring patience as I don't have the bankroll to do it all at once.

Anyone else got anything on?


Title: Football betting, baby
Post by: lebowski on Sunday, May 11, 2008, 11:32:45
The meaningless Spurs v Liverpool game to have more than 3 goals in it @ 8/5.

If this comes off my stake is big enough to have authorities looking into irregular betting patterns.


Title: Football betting, baby
Post by: Nemo on Sunday, May 11, 2008, 12:32:07
Got it on good information that Paul Robinson is playing then Lebowski?


Title: Football betting, baby
Post by: Simon Pieman on Sunday, May 11, 2008, 19:21:50
Just worked out I have over £600 in various betting accounts. Yikes!


Title: Football betting, baby
Post by: lebowski on Sunday, May 11, 2008, 19:53:15
Went for the wrong sodding meaningless fixture didn't I!

Think I will retire from betting now. It's been fun.


Title: Football betting, baby
Post by: Simon Pieman on Saturday, May 17, 2008, 09:58:21
Going to make another £35 odd quid from the FA cup final today  :)


Title: Football betting, baby
Post by: Nemo on Saturday, May 17, 2008, 10:06:58
Anyone see the chap on the news who's going to win 58 grand if Cardiff win?


Title: Football betting, baby
Post by: STFC_Manc on Saturday, May 17, 2008, 10:09:03
Quote from: "Si Pie"
Going to make another £35 odd quid from the FA cup final today  :)


How?


Title: Football betting, baby
Post by: Don Rogers Shop on Saturday, May 17, 2008, 10:09:39
Hope he loses then


Title: Football betting, baby
Post by: reeves4england on Saturday, May 17, 2008, 11:18:32
Quote from: "Nemo"
Anyone see the chap on the news who's going to win 58 grand if Cardiff win?
Crazy stuff. I hope one-song Pompey win though


Title: Football betting, baby
Post by: Nemo on Saturday, May 17, 2008, 11:50:48
He got 25-1 on a Welsh grand slam, which is pretty damn good odds, I'd have put some money on at that price, then 80-1 on Cardiff...presumably a few rounds ago now!


Title: Football betting, baby
Post by: Simon Pieman on Saturday, May 17, 2008, 12:00:01
Quote from: "STFC_Manc"
Quote from: "Si Pie"
Going to make another £35 odd quid from the FA cup final today  :)


How?


Matching a free bet at the bookies (£50 no stakes returned) with a lay at the betting exchange.

At bookies: No goalscorer back £50 @ 9.00

At betting exchange: No goalscorer lay £40.20 @ 10.00

If there is no goalscorer I will make £400 at the bookies and lose £361.81 at the exchange = £38.19 profit

If there is a goalscorer I will make £38.19 at the betting exchange (5% commission comes off the lay total of £40.20) and lose nothing at the bookies (free bet) = £38.19 profit.

I'm going to lose a little bit on another qualifier bet which will bring today's profit down to around £35.


Title: Football betting, baby
Post by: Sussex on Saturday, May 17, 2008, 12:35:11
Quote from: "Si Pie"
Quote from: "STFC_Manc"
Quote from: "Si Pie"
Going to make another £35 odd quid from the FA cup final today  :)


How?


Matching a free bet at the bookies (£50 no stakes returned) with a lay at the betting exchange.

At bookies: No goalscorer back £50 @ 9.00

At betting exchange: No goalscorer lay £40.20 @ 10.00

If there is no goalscorer I will make £400 at the bookies and lose £361.81 at the exchange = £38.19 profit

If there is a goalscorer I will make £38.19 at the betting exchange (5% commission comes off the lay total of £40.20) and lose nothing at the bookies (free bet) = £38.19 profit.

I'm going to lose a little bit on another qualifier bet which will bring today's profit down to around £35.


All those numbers confuse me. I just chucked £40 on Pompey to win (£32 profit). Not bothered if they don't, it just comes out of the cash I've made on Betfair recently.


Title: Football betting, baby
Post by: Simon Pieman on Saturday, May 17, 2008, 12:45:30
I still have the odd punt now and again, but it's a good way to make money.


Title: Football betting, baby
Post by: STFC_Manc on Saturday, May 17, 2008, 12:47:19
whats a lay?


Title: Football betting, baby
Post by: Simon Pieman on Saturday, May 17, 2008, 12:53:07
Quote from: "STFC_Manc"
whats a lay?


You bet against the result.

e.g. Swindon to win @ 2/1. If I put £10 down on a lay, I would get £10 is Swindon lost or drew, but would have to pay £20 if Swindon wone.

Basically you act as the booky. Strood made a thread about it, I'd heard of it before but didn't really know what matched betting was until then.


Title: Football betting, baby
Post by: Rossi on Sunday, May 18, 2008, 15:56:36
I did one of these matched bets a little while ago which paid off nicely.  But am I right in thinking that smaller offers e.g. "Free £10 matched bet - no stake returned" aren't worth doing, as by the time the stakes have been taken out you only win a couple of quid?
So its only really worth doing if either the stakes ARE returned on the free bet or where the matched bet value is a lot higher (50 quid for example)?


Title: Football betting, baby
Post by: dell boy on Sunday, May 18, 2008, 17:54:07
I've lost huge amounts on the play-offs and the cup final this weekend -

I backed Southend, Crystal Palace and Wycombe blimey none of them even made the final play-offs.

Backed Portsmouth to win by at two goals as well.

The equivalent of 330 pints of Stella down the drain, fuck me.

 :shock:


Title: Football betting, baby
Post by: Simon Pieman on Sunday, May 18, 2008, 19:44:17
Quote from: "Rossi"
I did one of these matched bets a little while ago which paid off nicely.  But am I right in thinking that smaller offers e.g. "Free £10 matched bet - no stake returned" aren't worth doing, as by the time the stakes have been taken out you only win a couple of quid?
So its only really worth doing if either the stakes ARE returned on the free bet or where the matched bet value is a lot higher (50 quid for example)?


Nope. You just need to play the odds right and look for a good percentage return, around 75% is what you should look for. You could quite comfortably make £7 a pop with a £10 NSR bets. The higher the odds with an NSR bet the better. Use a matched bet calculator to look at the different combinations. That £7 would take 5 minutes work. It's worth it - squeeze every penny at of every bookie and your bankroll builds up.

It's actually worth starting off with the smaller free bets, as the larger £50 ones require a bigger bank roll to offset the potential loss at the exchange. As per my earlier post about the FA cup final, if I'd lost at the exchange I'd have lost £360 odd quid there, due to the size of the lay. With a £10 lay I'd have only needed £70 odd quid in my exchange account in case I lost.


Title: Football betting, baby
Post by: Sussex on Sunday, May 18, 2008, 20:34:01
I use a far more technical system, it's called 'fuck it I'll just guess'.

Seems to be working ok so far.  :D


Title: Football betting, baby
Post by: Simon Pieman on Sunday, May 18, 2008, 22:53:53
£60 up this weekend.