Thetownend.com

All this doom and gloom on the news this morning, markets down 5.6% yesterday, expecting even more today, we're going into a reccession, it's all America's fault and the world is going to end.

And within an hour of trading this morning shares are back up 2.4%.

Fucking media scaremongerers.

If we went it reccession what does that actually mean?  :?

The media are responsible for much of it anyway and should be more responsible. When investors see headline' stating recession ect. they are obviously going to consider selling.

That's where decent advice should come into play though.

Recently me and the Mrs have been looking into moving, it's starting to get annoying when the estate agent pulls a disapproving face when I tell them our current mortgage is with Northern Rock

"what's up with that" I ask

"oh, nothing, nothing at all"

"why pull that face then"

"oh no, no, Northern Rock's fine"

It's about time estate agents were regulated properly as currently they seem to have no more knowledge than the average person on the street.  If I was someone not up to speed with what's going on I think I'd have had a little element of doubt in my head regarding the biggest debt in my life.

Technically, its a decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or negative economic growth over two or more succesive quarters.

A couple of hours doesn't prove anything either way though.

It happens the economy works in cycles, if it's time for a recession then we'll have to tighten the purse strings til we come out the other side.  

Anyway isn't the fear (that has caused this market decline) due to the possibility of the Americans heading for another recession, we're just heading for a slow down in economic growth?

And in English...

The economy for two succesive quarters (so 6 months or more) produces a loss.

Interest rates may be cut to encourage spending, although that could cause inflation which goes against the Governments targets.  I think.

In laymans terms, more businesses close than start up, and people spend less money.

The drop in spending can be started by a number of thing's, and this has an effect of decreased revenue for producers. Profit's drop, the business is forced to close leading to the loss of job's. Exponentially the loss of jobs leads to an even sharper drop in spending and so on.  Usually a recession can be nipped in the bud by the government stepping in and spending big, usually in the form of tax cuts to encourage people to start buying again, but sometimes it spiral's out of control.

Estate Agents are a nightmare, went to view a house for a mate who posts on here, £135k would of taken about 130k but needed 10 - 15k being sold, I asked him how much the done up one achieved next door, he replied 145k one quick phone call and it was found out 130k was sale price, needess to say my mate found a lush place elsewhere

As for a recession, the banks are tightening however the markets should all be fine by the first quarter of 2008/9.

Jan - fuck all wrong with having a mortgage with NR, you owe THEM money. If anything happened to them and they went bust then wahey, debt written off. If they are bought out by another lender then the debt is just transferred to the new lender. (I just moved my mortgage away from them, but not 'cos I was worried but my fixed deal had come to an end and I got a better deal from Abbey).

That's pretty much spot on, but I suspect it's a cut 'n paste job  :wink:

Although in this current case it's not so cut and dry, spending is quite low but inflation is still reasonably high because of property prices and mortgage payments. The BofE have cut interest rates which should lower mortgage payments and ease inflation in that sense, but then it's making cheaper credit available to people which will increase spending and force inflation up again. Vicous circle really.

Our mortgage is with Northern Rock....very very unlikely they would go bust tho  :(

Exactly NR will not go bust, and therefore the debt won't be written off.  Like you Bo I'll be changing mortgage provider when we move, not because I have a problem with NR just that we'll now be able to get a much better IR elsewhere!

 :shock:  :shock:  :shock: I have reason to know these things I'll have you know![/quote]

Even if they did, the mortgages would be sold off to another lender.

I know, it really does not affect the people with the mortgages.  Which is what annoys me when the clueless estate agents try to be cocky by making the "it's gonna cost ya" face.

It doesn't affect anyone. The Government have decided to prop it up with our money. They are guaranteeing 100% payback of savings even if it did go tits up.

Estate agents are wankers? Who'd have though :)

it could affect savers Batch as NR's savings rate could be cut to save money, althoguh they do have to keep them competitive.

A big part of it though is also the sheep mentality prevalent in the City. All this BS about the "Big balls" the traders have and that's why they pull off the big money deals so that's why they get the 6-figure bonuses. Then a few of them get the jitters and within half an hour they're all heading for the sell button, like a stampede of frightened little girls. Pussies.

I cant see how its the medias fault,what do the media have to gain by reporting whats happening negativly?They report what the experts are saying simple as that.

It always balances out in the long term anyway

same as with house prices - they get a sniff of things not being perfect and then create a story which depicts the worse possible case scenario.

i saw a good piece in a magazine recently where someone had written in to explain how newspapers always plot a graph showing the change in house price rather than actual house price - so if last month house prices increased 2% and this month they only increased 1% you still get a nice graph with an impressively scarey downward slope on it, even though it would still cost you loads more to buy the house each month.

The most accurate piece of reporting I've seen so far - The publication I saw this in ?  This month's Viz, in Top Tips...

Anyone see the Intel chairman (Garrett) on BBC Breaksfast news talking to Declan

"I hope the media don't talk us into a recession, as it always makes a good story...."

so I'm, looking to move house at the moment, but the wife thinks it's not a good time. I said that while the prices may have levelled out, that doesn't just mean that we might not get as much we want for our gaff, but that houses we're looking at moving into are also levelling, so it's all relative. In truth I don't really know what I'm talking about, but do people what know what they're talking about think it's a good time to be moving?

I'm looking to move now Juddie.  As you say the prices may be levelling but that applies tomost if not all properties.

If you were moving abroad it may be an issue, but if you moving around the same area it's not reallly much of a concern.  I may not get my asking price, all that means is the offer I make on my next house will be relatively reduced.

Only my opinion, but makes sense in my head.

that's precisely how I think about it. I was listening to summat on 5Live saying that if you're looking to sell and buy to move into, the market doesn't really affect you. If you're buying as an investment then don't bother.

We've just bought a place. The way I see it is a mortgage is over such a long period of time, there will be a few blips over that time but you have to pick the right time to move.

My housemate and I moved in to a two bed place nine months ago which is now worth 25k more than he bought it for. Three beds in the area have come down from 275k to 245k (ish), so when I move out he can now buy a three bed place. Just need to keep an eye on the market.

Macca would know best about all this.

Or if you're moving abroad.  You might want to wait for the next surge in the property market, but that'd be a gamble.

Capitalist pigs the lot of you.............................

Indeed. I have thought about moving to Oz but the prices are rocketing on the east coast.

Sthn Aus and WA are still pretty cheap, and welcoming, they're trying to attract "the right kinda people" so where the bloody hell are ya?