Banker
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« Reply #1620 on: Friday, March 27, 2020, 13:12:43 » |
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Are you implying some sort of conspiracy?
Implying it's far more widespread than total cases (11k) and the estimated current cases by the modellers (250k-500k) are suggesting. That said, both HRH, PM (and Matt Hancock) meet plenty of folk, London hotspot etc etc.
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tans
You spin me right round baby right round
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« Reply #1621 on: Friday, March 27, 2020, 13:13:41 » |
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Hancock has it now
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Flashheart
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« Reply #1622 on: Friday, March 27, 2020, 13:16:39 » |
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Implying it's far more widespread than total cases (11k) and the estimated current cases by the modellers (250k-500k) are suggesting.
That said, both HRH, PM (and Matt Hancock) meet plenty of folk, London hotspot etc etc.
Ah, that makes sense.
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RobertT
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« Reply #1623 on: Friday, March 27, 2020, 13:25:00 » |
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It's entirely probable that more people have had it or do have it than tested numbers confirm, that's a given. It's also likely the death toll is higher because previous deaths registered as Cardiac Failure and Pneumonia may well have been caused by the virus. When you look at past Pandemics, a similar type of extrapolation is often used because the confirmed data is nearly always suspected to be an under reporting.
Somewhere like Italy is a good example - they've pretty much given up on being able to test everyone that should be, because the Healthcare system is breaking at the seems just to care for those ill enough to need treatment. I think they believe you can multiply the confirmed cases by a factor of at least 10.
You also have incubation period to consider. When you see somewhere like NYC registering thousands of positive cases a day now, that was from spread 10-14 days ago. Again, you look at Italy and see the death rate per day in the many hundreds even after a couple of weeks of being in lockdown, same for Spain.
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Banker
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« Reply #1624 on: Friday, March 27, 2020, 13:41:07 » |
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Yes, likely explains the 12 weeks isolation notice to the vulnerable, implemented before the lockdown measure (partial).
Infection > 2 weeks worst case incubation > 1 week worsening symptoms > 6 weeks worst case ventilator etc > 3 weeks margin for error.
Lockdown in Italy Mar 12th, Spain 16th March, anticipate the stats downturn hopefully within a week, or so ?
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« Last Edit: Friday, March 27, 2020, 13:45:42 by Banker »
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Matchworn Shirts
For Sale
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« Reply #1625 on: Friday, March 27, 2020, 14:08:57 » |
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Apparently 190 more deaths.
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I come from a land down-under
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Flashheart
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« Reply #1626 on: Friday, March 27, 2020, 14:13:57 » |
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I still people saying 'it's bullshit', or 'exaggerated' or whatever.
The planet's population could be decimated and there would still be people denying it.
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pauld
Aaron Aardvark
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Absolute Calamity!
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« Reply #1628 on: Friday, March 27, 2020, 14:27:21 » |
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Apparently 190 more deaths.
181 according to the BBC. That's still quite some leap, we seem to be entering an Italian-style phase of exponential increases in both deaths and confirmed cases (2921 increase today)
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RobertT
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« Reply #1629 on: Friday, March 27, 2020, 14:29:41 » |
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Given that anything resembling a lock down didn't occur until start of this week, you can expect the numbers to climb for about 16 days or so, at least.
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Sippo
Living in the 80s
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I ain't gettin on no plane fool
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« Reply #1631 on: Friday, March 27, 2020, 15:13:03 » |
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I go out twice day. Once at 6.30am just for a quick poo walk with the dog. Then we go out for longer in the day. I never see anyone that early.
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If my calculations are correct, when this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious shit...
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pauld
Aaron Aardvark
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Absolute Calamity!
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« Reply #1632 on: Friday, March 27, 2020, 15:16:42 » |
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I go out twice day. Once at 6.30am just for a quick poo walk with the dog. Then we go out for longer in the day. I never see anyone that early.
No problem with the number of times you go out, but think you should do your shitting in your own house, not out walking with the dog. Even if you don't see anyone #notnicehabit
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RobertT
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« Reply #1633 on: Friday, March 27, 2020, 15:18:55 » |
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Especially if you don't want NinjaBen to dob you in or take you down with his Assassin moves. He's the one with the phone torch on his head, easy to spot.
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Chunkyhair
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« Reply #1634 on: Friday, March 27, 2020, 15:23:05 » |
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No one kills a thread like me....
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