Let's Get Political!

[horlock07]

I think whoever is in power has an absolutely mammoth task ahead of them. Labour are clearly a shoe-in to win the next election but to me they hardly inspire confidence. The best I can say about them is that they are not tories.

I remain unconvinced they are a shoe in, they may be the biggest party but I still don't see them getting a majority, never underestimate the Schroedinger Tories which are presently moaning like fuck about everything being shit, but then will quietly vote Tory come a GE to keep the commies out.

Also worth bearing mind that in both cases last night if Reform hadn't stood and their votes remained with the Tories the Tories would have retained the seat, so no doubt a deal will be done before the next election to get Farage and Tice into the Lords and stand down their Reform candidates.

Edit - Plus also worth noting that in Tamworth Britain First, an offshoot of the BNP and considered by come to be a neo-fascist party finished 4th of 9 candidates, with 580 votes (2.3%) getting more votes then the Liberal Democrats, the Green party and UKIP.

I have no expectation of the country under Labour immediately becoming Elysium, but it at least feels like they'd try and improve things a bit, which the current government seem to have entirely given up on in favour of just picking fights over moronic shit.

Pretty much this, I honestly don't give a toss whatever colour rosette the party is wearing, just a government that at least gave the vague impression of giving a shit about all of the population, and didn't appear to have as its sole objective to be cruel to certain parts of society whilst making the already extremely wealthy and specifically and blatantly their donors more wealthy would be a massive step forward in UK politics from the present situation.

Looking at the stats, the actually Labour vote didn't really increase since their defeats at the last GE. The Tory vote just didn't turn up. Not a great place for a democracy when someone comes into power due to mass apathy/sense of disenfranchisement.

By-election turnouts are notoriously low and especially in Nadine's old constituency they Tory vote was just royally fucked off. Possibly as interesting data to look at is the changes in proportion of the votes cast.

The interesting thing will be what the parties do now, I actually think Uxbridge despite being a loss, was a big help for Labour as it set the Tories off on this #waronmotorists shtick which it seems is isn't the vote winner they think it is, now I see the Tories are coming out saying they think that people are still thinking they are doing things right, which suggests that the veering even further right will continue?

So Labour will come into power not because they are Labour but because they are neither the Tories nor the SNP.

Indeed much like the Tories got into power with a massive majority in 2019 mainly just for not being Jeremy Corbyn.

[ThreeDrawsMentality]

So Labour will come into power not because they are Labour but because they are neither the Tories nor the SNP.

To be honest I think this goes for most the UK elections, opposition parties don't tend to win them, instead Governing parties tend to lose them. From recent memory it feels like only Blair bucked this trend to his popularity in opposition.

[Mooneyraker]

To be fair to Boris, whether it was bullshit or not, "Get Brexit Done" spoke to a fair chunk of voters worn out by the years long parliamentary impasse. You can't say he only won that majority because he wasn't Corbyn, particularly as the Conservatives weren't the opposition.

[Nemo]

To be fair to Boris, whether it was bullshit or not, "Get Brexit Done" spoke to a fair chunk of voters worn out by the years long parliamentary impasse. You can't see he only won that majority because he wasn't Corbyn, particularly as the Conservatives weren't the opposition.

This is pretty fair, particularly considering that Theresa May also wasn't Corbyn and did really rather a lot worse. I think Boris was and remains a twit, but he was undeniably popular amongst a decent chunk of the country.

But the overall point is right I think - not that many UK PMs sweep to power on a wave of enthusiasm a la Blair. Most are just seen as the best of a bad bunch.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey]

Not really interested who votes for what party, but do you vote for the party you think will do the best for you and your family or for the party which you think would be best for the country overall.

[Nemo]

Not really interested who votes for what party, but do you vote for the party you think will do the best for you and your family or for the party which you think would be best for the country overall.

I think in theory a balance of both, but I can't think of any times that they haven't been the same thing in my view, perhaps because I'm pretty average in terms of income and pretty vanilla in terms of outlook/social class.

[Mooneyraker]

This is pretty fair, particularly considering that Theresa May also wasn't Corbyn and did really rather a lot worse. I think Boris was and remains a twit, but he was undeniably popular amongst a decent chunk of the country.

But the overall point is right I think - not that many UK PMs sweep to power on a wave of enthusiasm a la Blair. Most are just seen as the best of a bad bunch.

Yes and perhaps given what happened with Blair over Iraq, sweeping to power on a wave of enthusiasm is probably something of a cautionary tale.

[Wobbly Bob]

Wonder when the Tories will choose to take the tumble from Beachy Head.

They could linger until end of Jan 2025.

I'm guessing next September.
A year can be a long time in politics & a heavy reliance on the electrolate having short memories. Who knows.

Economic uncertainties are likely to increase rather than decrease I suspect.

[Mooneyraker]

Significant escalation in the Middle East could well move the dial.

Labour are walking a tightrope there with large parts of their supporter base.

The Tories will leave it as late as possible I imagine.

[horlock07]

I think in theory a balance of both, but I can't think of any times that they haven't been the same thing in my view, perhaps because I'm pretty average in terms of income and pretty vanilla in terms of outlook/social class.

This is it, we're a bit above average in term of earnings, and most of my client base from whom I earn that money are very wealthy, but to be very wealthy they need those on low and average earnings to have enough cash to buy their products, so its swings and roundabouts really.

What skews things is where the government and media manage to twist things so issues that actually affect very few of us, but benefit others become massive issues, the recent inheritance tax fuss being a prime example.

Wonder when the Tories will choose to take the tumble from Beachy Head.

They could linger until end of Jan 2025.

I'm guessing next September.
A year can be a long time in politics & a heavy reliance on the electrolate having short memories. Who knows.

Economic uncertainties are likely to increase rather than decrease I suspect.

It's gonna be next Autumn I agree, whilst they could hold on till January 2025 that's just going to really piss off those on the ground.

Significant escalation in the Middle East could well move the dial.

Labour are walking a tightrope there with large parts of their supporter base.

Both parties are at risk of alienating their supporter base, there are a hell of a lot of long standing conservative voters who are absolutely fucking horrified at the violent lurch to the right the party are presently undertaking, and sound bites from ministers suggest this morning that isn't going to slow or change.

Speaking to a mate this morning who is in to this sort of thing (has worked with John Curtice in the past) and his comment was that a huge amount is going to depend on how the Tories respond to this, be it accept that many are repulsed vs. just ploughing ahead.

[Mooneyraker]

It seems noteworthy that this is being portrayed by Starmer as lots of new people voting for Labour for the first time.

I do find this coverage strange and I normally enjoy Curtice but I think he's missed the key story here or paid it lip service.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67166028

In Tamworth in 2019 Labour managed 10,908 votes. In 2023 they got 11,719. This is an increase of less than 8%.

In Mid Beds in 2019 Labour managed 14,028 votes. In 2023 they got 13,872. This is a decrease of 1%.

The story here isn't that Labour 'did well'. It is that the Tory voters simply didn't turn up. The turnout was down almost 30% in both constituencies and the figures almost exactly align with the Conservative voter atrophy.

[Nemo]

By election turnouts are always way below general election ones, no? If this was an outlier then sure that's the story,  but I suspect Curtice probably knows what he's talking about.

[Mooneyraker]

By election turnouts are always way below general election ones, no? If this was an outlier then sure that's the story,  but I suspect Curtice probably knows what he's talking about.

He 100% knows what he's talking about. It's his life's work!

I'm just saying that it seems odd that a 1% decrease in voters in a constituency, and a marginal gain in another, is being spun as a rocking win.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey]

Should voting be mandatory.

[Mooneyraker]

Should voting be mandatory.

I think it should be mandatory to turn up, even if you draw a hairy cock on your ballot paper.