horlock07
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Lives in Northern Bastard Outpost
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« Reply #12990 on: Friday, October 20, 2023, 11:33:30 » |
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There is a fun game to be hand on Twitter this morning, Tory or Corbynista as they both seem to be saying exactly the same things. Talking of Twitter I see Spacey formerly of this Parish has been busy. https://x.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/status/1715251166441775197 |
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Bob's Orange
Has brain escape barriers
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« Reply #12991 on: Friday, October 20, 2023, 12:32:55 » |
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He 100% knows what he's talking about. It's his life's work!
I'm just saying that it seems odd that a 1% decrease in voters in a constituency, and a marginal gain in another, is being spun as a rocking win.
It's a really interesting way of analysing the statistics isn't it? In one way overturning a 25k deficit is pretty monumental (which is what Labour will present), but when you take the statistic you stated, it doesn't quite look as impressive. (which is what the tories will present) |
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we've been to Aberdeen, we hate the Hibs, they make us spew up, so make some noise,
the gorgie boys, for Hearts in Europe.
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horlock07
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Lives in Northern Bastard Outpost
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« Reply #12992 on: Friday, October 20, 2023, 12:44:33 » |
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It's a really interesting way of analysing the statistics isn't it? In one way overturning a 25k deficit is pretty monumental (which is what Labour will present), but when you take the statistic you stated, it doesn't quite look as impressive. (which is what the tories will present)
Its all down to proportion of the vote rather than total number isn't it, you are never going to get similar number of votes on a much smaller turnout. As noted previously this is why the number of vote as a statistic is being grasped on Twitter by Tories and Corbynista's alike as a way to show their man/party did better. Not sure where the evidence of the Tory vote staying at home is coming from as how would you know bar possibly Tory tellers at the door and how big an effect that actually has, and the Tory's stating this as fact all has an air of Mandy Rice Davis about it. |
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Bob's Orange
Has brain escape barriers
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« Reply #12993 on: Friday, October 20, 2023, 12:48:17 » |
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Its all down to proportion of the vote rather than total number isn't it, you are never going to get similar number of votes on a much smaller turnout. As noted previously this is why the number of vote as a statistic is being grasped on Twitter by Tories and Corbynista's alike as a way to show their man/party did better.
Not sure where the evidence of the Tory vote staying at home is coming from as how would you know bar possibly Tory tellers at the door and how big an effect that actually has, and the Tory's stating this as fact all has an air of Mandy Rice Davis about it.
That's a really good point. |
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we've been to Aberdeen, we hate the Hibs, they make us spew up, so make some noise,
the gorgie boys, for Hearts in Europe.
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Mooneyraker
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Beware Aussies in bucket hats bearing gifts
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« Reply #12994 on: Friday, October 20, 2023, 13:04:51 » |
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Indeed, we won't ever know but I'm going to chuck a fiver on a Conservative win at the GE for a laugh as the odds will be decent right now.
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ThreeDrawsMentality
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« Reply #12995 on: Friday, October 20, 2023, 13:13:13 » |
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Pollsters Survation compiled 'intention to turn out' data prior to the Mids Bed by-election.
They found 52% of 2019 Conservative voters intended to turn out, and 58% of 2019 Labour voters intended to turn out. Given their voting intention poll compiled from the same research was similar to outcome, pours some cold water on the 'no swing' to Labour narrative.
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Mooneyraker
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Beware Aussies in bucket hats bearing gifts
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« Reply #12996 on: Friday, October 20, 2023, 13:15:14 » |
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Pollsters Survation compiled 'intention to turn out' data prior to the Mids Bed by-election.
They found 52% of 2019 Conservative voters intended to turn out, and 58% of 2019 Labour voters intended to turn out. Given their voting intention poll compiled from the same research was similar to outcome, pours some cold water on the 'no swing' to Labour narrative.
That's interesting... |
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Nemo
Shit Bacon
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« Reply #12998 on: Friday, October 20, 2023, 13:36:20 » |
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Literally cancelling cultures. That's a science joke that is. |
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Wobbly Bob
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« Reply #12999 on: Friday, October 20, 2023, 13:43:01 » |
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Indeed, we won't ever know but I'm going to chuck a fiver on a Conservative win at the GE for a laugh as the odds will be decent right now.
Won't be much of a laugh if they get in again I suspect. Not tempted to go big on the bet then?  Better still, just buy a pint with the stake money. |
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Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?
Crap!
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Mooneyraker
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Beware Aussies in bucket hats bearing gifts
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« Reply #13000 on: Friday, October 20, 2023, 13:44:04 » |
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Won't be much a laugh if they get in again I suspect.Not tempted to go big on the bet then? Better still, just buy a pint with the stake money. I'll be sitting pretty with my £55 at least...  |
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Wobbly Bob
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« Reply #13001 on: Friday, October 20, 2023, 13:51:02 » |
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I'll be sitting pretty with my £55 at least... Yeah, there is that. Betting on referendum outcomes would be a safer option if going big. Three UK ones in the last 20 or so years and all with predictable outcomes backed up with a bit of research. |
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Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?
Crap!
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Mooneyraker
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Beware Aussies in bucket hats bearing gifts
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« Reply #13002 on: Friday, October 20, 2023, 13:54:07 » |
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Yeah, there is that.
Betting on referendum outcomes would be a safer option if going big.
Three UK ones in the last 20 or so years and all with predictable outcomes backed up with a bit of research.
Yes, cut out the noise and the Leave vote was much more likely than the bookies made out. |
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The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey
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?Absolute Calamity!?
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« Reply #13003 on: Sunday, October 22, 2023, 12:42:46 » |
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Don’t know whether to laugh or cry.
This is Irish PM Leo Varadker on his Twitter feed showing his faith in the Covid booster.
Zoom in and see no evidence of a syringe.
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fuzzy
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A Bastard apparently
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« Reply #13004 on: Sunday, October 22, 2023, 13:19:41 » |
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Don’t know whether to laugh or cry.
This is Irish PM Leo Varadker on his Twitter feed showing his faith in the Covid booster.
Zoom in and see no evidence of a syringe.
Zoom in and look and the syringe is there. |
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