Let's Get Political!

[Batch]

I'm beginning to think the ERG will shit themselves and vote through whatever May comes back with.

But as you say, that's just a prelude to the main event. A transition period would start an 18 month/2 year clock ticking - and we've done so well negotiating in that timeframe so far.

FUBAR.

[pauld]

I think it is important though that people realise, this will rumble on for years.  We've had the easy bit up until now.... negotiating a new deal with the EU and other countries from a position of weakness, is going to cause major problems.

Spot on. If people think the past two years has been hard work, this has just been the negotiations on how we leave. We have yet to start on defining the future relationship with the EU, that will be much harder, especially now the EU realise we are actually quite crap at it. We've got at least a decade of this shit rumbling on and on

[Ardiles]

I'm beginning to think the ERG will shit themselves and vote through whatever May comes back with.

But as you say, that's just a prelude to the main event. A transition period would start an 18 month/2 year clock ticking - and we've done so well negotiating in that timeframe so far.

FUBAR.

This is when reality will finally dawn that the Leave prospectus was built on a pack of lies.  When the myth of British exceptionalism will finally die, when our status at the upper end of the international pecking order will end and when the realisation that we'd made a horrible mistake will set in.  How the country will react to that is anyone's guess, but it won't be pretty.

[pauld]

This is when reality will finally dawn that the Leave prospectus was built on a pack of lies.  When the myth of British exceptionalism will finally die, when our status at the upper end of the international pecking order will end and when the realisation that we'd made a horrible mistake will set in. 

It won't, though. The SRKs and Legends-Lounges will just insist that "Brexit has been betrayed by the elite" and lurch yet further to the right as they seek out scapegoats for this new reality they won't want to confront

[chalkies_shorts]

It won't, though. The SRKs and Legends-Lounges will just insist that "Brexit has been betrayed by the elite" and lurch yet further to the right as they seek out scapegoats for this new reality they won't want to confront

And SRK and Legends-Lounge would have every right to feel that without automatically shifting to the right. The two are not intrinsically linked other than for a very small minority. Don't forget how many Labour voters voted Leave.
There appears to be a presumption that the EU will actually let us extend Article 50. If I was them I wouldn't. I'd force us to no deal or revoke Article 50.
I still think people are struggling to disaggregate leaving the EU with the total fucking shambles we've made of it. A different negotiating stance may well have driven different outcomes. One of many fuck ups was working on the basis the EU would come to the table. The didn't have to and there should have been no expectation of it. We want to leave, over to us. That meant no deal from day 1. Planning should have been done before Article 50 was triggered and we actually had a negotiating strategy based on us walking. Farage should have been put in charge of negotiations with the EU..
There is a sense of betrayal but I expected it.  From day 1 instead of confidently facing off to the EU with a clear no deal plan and a figurehead like Farage all we've done is have May sideline our Brexit secretaries and beg the EU for a deal. How many times can they tell us to fuck off....and quite rightly.
For Leavers there will be a sense of what could have been. Whether it was good or bad would play out over time. The EU will now have carte blanche to quicken the move to the United States of Europe which Macron would be very happy with.
Personally, I'd revoke Article 50 now. We've still got a lot of our own shit to sort out before we can seriously face off to the EU. I'd rather Remain for now than put through May's deal but despite everything that has been written, no deal for me.

[reeves4england]

There appears to be a presumption that the EU will actually let us extend Article 50. If I was them I wouldn't. I'd force us to no deal or revoke Article 50.
I still think people are struggling to disaggregate leaving the EU with the total fucking shambles we've made of it. A different negotiating stance may well have driven different outcomes. One of many fuck ups was working on the basis the EU would come to the table. The didn't have to and there should have been no expectation of it. We want to leave, over to us. That meant no deal from day 1. Planning should have been done before Article 50 was triggered and we actually had a negotiating strategy based on us walking. Farage should have been put in charge of negotiations with the EU..
There is a sense of betrayal but I expected it.  From day 1 instead of confidently facing off to the EU with a clear no deal plan and a figurehead like Farage all we've done is have May sideline our Brexit secretaries and beg the EU for a deal. How many times can they tell us to fuck off....and quite rightly.
For Leavers there will be a sense of what could have been. Whether it was good or bad would play out over time. The EU will now have carte blanche to quicken the move to the United States of Europe which Macron would be very happy with.
Personally, I'd revoke Article 50 now. We've still got a lot of our own shit to sort out before we can seriously face off to the EU. I'd rather Remain for now than put through May's deal but despite everything that has been written, no deal for me.

Agree with all of this... except the Farage bit as I feel he'd swing totally the other way from May (i.e. bull in a china shop) when a smarter and more nuanced approach is what has been needed.

[pauld]

And SRK and Legends-Lounge would have every right to feel that without automatically shifting to the right. The two are not intrinsically linked other than for a very small minority. Don't forget how many Labour voters voted Leave.
There appears to be a presumption that the EU will actually let us extend Article 50. If I was them I wouldn't. I'd force us to no deal or revoke Article 50.
I still think people are struggling to disaggregate leaving the EU with the total fucking shambles we've made of it. A different negotiating stance may well have driven different outcomes. One of many fuck ups was working on the basis the EU would come to the table. The didn't have to and there should have been no expectation of it. We want to leave, over to us. That meant no deal from day 1. Planning should have been done before Article 50 was triggered and we actually had a negotiating strategy based on us walking. Farage should have been put in charge of negotiations with the EU..
There is a sense of betrayal but I expected it.  From day 1 instead of confidently facing off to the EU with a clear no deal plan and a figurehead like Farage all we've done is have May sideline our Brexit secretaries and beg the EU for a deal.

But that's not "betrayal by the elite", that's betrayal by the fuckwits who advocated Leave with absolutely no plan as to how they would do that. And that includes Farage, he's every bit as full of piss and wind as the rest of them. No-one could have made this work because there was no plan as to how it could be achieved from the outset. That's where the betrayal lies.

[chalkies_shorts]

Agree with all of this... except the Farage bit as I feel he'd swing totally the other way from May (i.e. bull in a china shop) when a smarter and more nuanced approach is what has been needed.

It would have been the best declaration of intent though. Behind the scenes would be where the smarter and more nuanced approach could have taken place.

[Ardiles]

And SRK and Legends-Lounge would have every right to feel that without automatically shifting to the right. The two are not intrinsically linked other than for a very small minority. Don't forget how many Labour voters voted Leave.
There appears to be a presumption that the EU will actually let us extend Article 50. If I was them I wouldn't. I'd force us to no deal or revoke Article 50.
I still think people are struggling to disaggregate leaving the EU with the total fucking shambles we've made of it. A different negotiating stance may well have driven different outcomes. One of many fuck ups was working on the basis the EU would come to the table. The didn't have to and there should have been no expectation of it. We want to leave, over to us. That meant no deal from day 1. Planning should have been done before Article 50 was triggered and we actually had a negotiating strategy based on us walking. Farage should have been put in charge of negotiations with the EU..
There is a sense of betrayal but I expected it.  From day 1 instead of confidently facing off to the EU with a clear no deal plan and a figurehead like Farage all we've done is have May sideline our Brexit secretaries and beg the EU for a deal. How many times can they tell us to fuck off....and quite rightly.
For Leavers there will be a sense of what could have been. Whether it was good or bad would play out over time. The EU will now have carte blanche to quicken the move to the United States of Europe which Macron would be very happy with.
Personally, I'd revoke Article 50 now. We've still got a lot of our own shit to sort out before we can seriously face off to the EU. I'd rather Remain for now than put through May's deal but despite everything that has been written, no deal for me.

Great post.  Agree with a lot of it - and especially the bit in bold.  I'd concede that even as someone who still, on balance, favours Remain.

You could well be right that the only way to leave the EU cleanly would be to have aimed for No Deal from the outset.  It would be fascinating to see how that would have played out if we could wind the clock back and replay the last 3 yrs.

But I doubt that that course of action could ever have got off the ground.  Seeing how implacably parliament is opposed to No Deal, I'm not sure how such a strategy could have survived more than a few weeks if May decided to go with it in 2016.  I think that she knew from the outset that a 52% vote in favour of leaving did not give her a mandate to proceed with a No Deal exit.  Had the vote been 65%+ in favour of leaving, the strategy could have been rather different.

[chalkies_shorts]

But that's not "betrayal by the elite", that's betrayal by the fuckwits who advocated Leave with absolutely no plan as to how they would do that. And that includes Farage, he's every bit as full of piss and wind as the rest of them. No-one could have made this work because there was no plan as to how it could be achieved from the outset. That's where the betrayal lies.

When May sidelines everyone other than a couple of non elected civil servants then how the fuck could JRM etc influence her. Farage has never been in a position of power - he wasn't even part of the official leave campaign.

[pauld]

It would have been the best declaration of intent though. Behind the scenes would be where the smarter and more nuanced approach could have taken place.

It would have been a good way to hold the charlatan to account for his own doings but wouldn't have solved the basic problem - there never was a plan as to how Brexit could be achieved and there still isn't. This is why we are in this mess, not because we had the wrong figurehead.

[pauld]

When May sidelines everyone other than a couple of non elected civil servants then how the fuck could JRM etc influence her. Farage has never been in a position of power - he wasn't even part of the official leave campaign.

Jesus, you actually want JRM in charge? Seriously?

[chalkies_shorts]

Jesus, you actually want JRM in charge? Seriously?

No, what I'm saying is that none of the leavers have had any influence over May and her inner sanctum so whether they had a plan her not is a mute point.

[Outletred]

No, what I'm saying is that none of the leavers have had any influence over May and her inner sanctum so whether they had a plan her not is a mute point.

Spot on. Fact is the process has been managed largely by from the start people who wanted to remain-including civil servants.

The whole thing isn’t really complicated- FTA like say canada. The only reason we haven’t had it is because of the EUs sheer intrangence.

In the EUs eyes this is all about making an example of us to ensure no others follow suit. It has no thought to the people of Europe at all

[pauld]

No, what I'm saying is that none of the leavers have had any influence over May and her inner sanctum so whether they had a plan her not is a mute point.

Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Liam Fox, David Davis, Dominic Raab are or were all key leaders of the Leave campaign and were all members of the cabinet charged with implementing Brexit. They had plenty of influence, just not a fucking clue what to do with it because they never had a plan to implement