Let's Get Political!

[horlock07]

The figures quoted are the worst case scenario. It would be interesting to see the best case scenario  or even the most likely view ito provide a balanced view.

But the governments own figures show a drop in GDP of between 5-8% depending on what deal is finally agreed (despite Mays lies in Parliament the other day!).

A few observations. First, the economy is composed of the tradeable and non-tradeable sect or. Most of the shock will be to the tradeable sector. It will be lumpy in nature. A 10% decline in the size of the tradeable sector will not be even across the economy, it will be more like the mining industry in the 80s with large effects in some places and little effect in others. Second, the tradeable sector broadly speaking is tax positive and contributes to the flows which fund the non-tradeable sector. There will be painful knock on effects. Third, it is interesting that Mrs May's deal is not explicitly one of the scenarios. This is because the political declaration is no more than a statement of intent. A real worry is that by going for a bespoke deal rather than some off the shelf version of Norway/Switzerland we have condemned our economy to years of Brexit uncertainty. That is very difficult to model.

[horlock07]

Rees-Mogg's ad hominem attack on him was telling.  Didn't like the message/conclusion, so attack the man.  Classy.

And use his nationality as an additional insult to appeal to the xenophobic nutters along the way. Mike Harding describes him as thus...

Jacob Re Smeg is the result of a privileged egg meeting a privileged and archaic spermatozoa. His contribution to Life on this planet could be written on a midge’s prepuce.  He is living proof that sometime evolution can work backwards. Sadly he is also dangerous.

[chalkies_shorts]

But the governments own figures show a drop in GDP of between 5-8% depending on what deal is finally agreed (despite Mays lies in Parliament the other day!).

A few observations. First, the economy is composed of the tradeable and non-tradeable sect or. Most of the shock will be to the tradeable sector. It will be lumpy in nature. A 10% decline in the size of the tradeable sector will not be even across the economy, it will be more like the mining industry in the 80s with large effects in some places and little effect in others. Second, the tradeable sector broadly speaking is tax positive and contributes to the flows which fund the non-tradeable sector. There will be painful knock on effects. Third, it is interesting that Mrs May's deal is not explicitly one of the scenarios. This is because the political declaration is no more than a statement of intent. A real worry is that by going for a bespoke deal rather than some off the shelf version of Norway/Switzerland we have condemned our economy to years of Brexit uncertainty. That is very difficult to model.

I may not have been clear. We've been given different worst case scenarios for different options. What I'd like to see is their best case scenario for no deal as well as what they think the likeliest outcome of no deal will be. That would enable us to more accurately assess the worst case scenario rather than that being the one quoted. The problem is that this worst case scenario will be treated with scorn and an update on project fear. Sadly, I've got a stats background and want to compare.

[Reg Smeeton]

And use his nationality as an additional insult to appeal to the xenophobic nutters along the way. Mike Harding describes him as thus...

Jacob Re Smeg is the result of a privileged egg meeting a privileged and archaic spermatozoa. His contribution to Life on this planet could be written on a midge’s prepuce.  He is living proof that sometime evolution can work backwards. Sadly he is also dangerous.

Moggy is probably thrashing around a bit after his palace coup failed to topple May... probably hoping his Dad's Army of crack Brexiteers is soon forgotten..

[Sir red ken]

Moggy is probably thrashing around a bit after his palace coup failed to topple May... probably hoping his Dad's Army of crack Brexiteers is soon forgotten..

As Mogg so correctly put it, Its not a coup, that' where force is used, they acted within the Tory party procedure.
The Independent ran with Coup. Massive communist, remain self interest paper.
Dad's Army was a line from the Evening Standard (bitter twisted remainer george osbourne is the editor)
Good to see you keeping free thought going by using soundbites from the biased media sources.
Read it, speak it, pretend its your thoughts and opinions how easily the mass is manipulated.

[Bathtime]

Like him or loathe him I thought RM's assessment of Carney was refreshing in that it didn't follow any particular PC guidelines..

[horlock07]

As Mogg so correctly put it, Its not a coup, that' where force is used, they acted within the Tory party procedure.
The Independent ran with Coup. Massive communist, remain self interest paper.
Dad's Army was a line from the Evening Standard (bitter twisted remainer george osbourne is the editor)
Good to see you keeping free thought going by using soundbites from the biased media sources.
Read it, speak it, pretend its your thoughts and opinions how easily the mass is manipulated.

A coup does not have to be delivered by force, I suspect that in forming that view you have been manipulated by others. I can however understand why he and many of the more tin foily Brexiteers would be sniffy about the term being used, what with it being French and all that.

They tried to act within the party procedure, however could not even manage to raise 47 of his colleagues to write a letter and instead revealed themselves as being the pathetic shambolic public school boys many knew they were, in terms of media manipulation and spin, many (and I include myself in this) fell for the line that suggested that he was more powerful than he was, rather hiding the fact that he is a backbencher who has never been deemed intelligent enough for a cabinet position and instead just a barmaids impression of a gentleman.

When all is said and done the bloke will no doubt do incredibly well out of Brexit, its us plebs who will take the hit for him.  

[RedRag]

Like him or loathe him I thought RM's assessment of Carney was refreshing in that it didn't follow any particular PC guidelines..

which "PC guidelines" did RM not follow?

[Reg Smeeton]

A coup does not have to be delivered by force, I suspect that in forming that view you have been manipulated by others.

The voices in SRK's head say otherwise.

[Sir red ken]

The voices in SRK's head say otherwise.

At least those voices are mine, yours are all coming from remain self interest groups.
Keep spouting what your told, there's a good little citizen.

[horlock07]

At least those voices are mine, yours are all coming from remain self interest groups.
Keep spouting what your told, there's a good little citizen.

Do you honestly think that people like Rees-Mogg, IDS, Redwood, Tim Martin and James Dyson are all doing this for the public good?

[Ardiles]

At least those voices are mine, yours are all coming from remain self interest groups.
Keep spouting what your told, there's a good little citizen.

Do you honestly think that people like Rees-Mogg, IDS, Redwood, Tim Martin and James Dyson are all doing this for the public good?

The double standards here are astonishing.

• Rees-Mogg, Johnson, Redwood etc. = men of the people!  A luta continua!
• Anyone supporting close co-operation with their nearest neighbours = The Liberal Elite/self-interest groups

[Ardiles]

There certainly are self-interest groups involved in this debate.  That much I can agree with.  But (in my humble view), they tend to be wealthy, white, male, middle-aged and Tory.

[chalkies_shorts]

Do you honestly think that people like Rees-Mogg, IDS, Redwood, Tim Martin and James Dyson are all doing this for the public good?

I don't. Much the same as I don't think Branson, miller, Hammond, etc are doing it in the public good.

[BambooToTheFuture]

The BoE shouldn't be involving itself in politics. Considering they are meant to be impartial. That is, if they wish to retain economic integrity. Mark Carney probably doesn't give a hoot anyway - he leaves next June.

I'm a "remainer" but as Chalkie mentioned. Make this fair to a degree and give us forecasts on the best possible outcomes too. If there aren't any positive outcomes to forecast, then bloody well say as it is.

This would not have been such an issue, if the report didn't come out on the same day as the Treasury's analysis.