Let's Get Political!

[Reg Smeeton]

I thought I heard on the radio this morning that May would be far less inclined to continue with austerity...at least to the same degree?

Osborne effectively binned austerity last week....acknowledging the Brexit hit would make his budget suplus goal by 2020 impossible.

[ghanimah]

And I wouldn't bank on Article 50 being triggered now any time soon.  Unlike Leadsom, May will be in no rush at all.

I guess it also puts pressure on Cameron to forego his finally farewell jolly with the other G8 leaders and to move aside ASAP.  Keeping May in the wings until Sep 9th now looks daft.

In my view invoking Article 50 should be delayed or invoked with a caveat of an extension of an additional couple of years with agreement of other member states. Thus giving us time.

We need to have experienced civil servants in place to conduct the negotiations but unfortunately we no longer have the quantity of experienced civil servants, as over 43 years this process has been outsourced to Brussels. Thus we need to employ rather quickly experienced negotiators

I personally don't expect, as a result, Article 50 to be invoked before the New Year.

[horlock07]

In my view invoking Article 50 should be delayed or invoked with a caveat of an extension of an additional couple of years with agreement of other member states. Thus giving us time.

We need to have experienced civil servants in place to conduct the negotiations but unfortunately we no longer have the quantity of experienced civil servants, as over 43 years this process has been outsourced to Brussels. Thus we need to employ rather quickly experienced negotiators

I personally don't expect, as a result, Article 50 to be invoked before the New Year.

It requires primary legislation to invoke Article 50 anyway so it isn't going to be a quick process, plus add a potential election into the mix not sure what will happen?

[Reg Smeeton]

In my view invoking Article 50 should be delayed or invoked with a caveat of an extension of an additional couple of years with agreement of other member states. Thus giving us time.

We need to have experienced civil servants in place to conduct the negotiations but unfortunately we no longer have the quantity of experienced civil servants, as over 43 years this process has been outsourced to Brussels. Thus we need to employ rather quickly experienced negotiators

I personally don't expect, as a result, Article 50 to be invoked before the New Year.

The first thing that needs to happen is for May to reshuffle the deck chairs on the Titanic, presumably high profile Brexiteers will be put into the key ministries....as they wanted this shit, so should get on with it.

[Berniman]

So technically we will have an unelected PM.

Same when Brown took over from Phoney Tony.

Demoncracy in action.

There is a level of Democracy with this though.  Cameron was never going to hang around if he lost the referendum, so those voting leave were also voting for new leadership.  So to a certain extent the democratic vote has got what it wanted, just not a choice of the replacement.

[Batch]

Well, what an unbelievable mess. The Brexiters in a position to lead have fled or shot themselves in the foot.

Great.

[ghanimah]

It requires primary legislation to invoke Article 50 anyway so it isn't going to be a quick process, plus add a potential election into the mix not sure what will happen?

Nope, it merely requires Royal Prerogative by the PM to invoke Article 50

[ghanimah]

Well, what an unbelievable mess. The Brexiters in a position to lead have fled or shot themselves in the foot.

Great.

It's not a mess at all...it's fine, we'll stay in the Single Market and the day we leave will be the same as the day before and everyone will say "what was the fuss about"

[Wobbly Bob]

There is a level of Democracy with this though.  Cameron was never going to hang around if he lost the referendum, so those voting leave were also voting for new leadership.  So to a certain extent the democratic vote has got what it wanted, just not a choice of the replacement.

Although he did initially say, that in the event of a leave vote he would trigger article 50 straight away and lead the negotiations. etc

He might have got away with standing firm and off of the back of a potential cabinet reshuffle favouring prominent leavers.

It's a right mess, pun intended, where political opportunism has
hijacked the so called will of the people.

[horlock07]

Nope, it merely requires Royal Prerogative by the PM to invoke Article 50

That's not the line that a Barrister told me last week, there is all manner of legal permutations and wrangling's already going on regarding this (according to him anyway!)

Edit - found it, his notes included the following:-

The first point that should be clearly understood is that the result of last week’s referendum is not binding in any way. It has no legal status, and does not oblige the government or parliament to give effect to its outcome. Secondly, eminent constitutional experts have pointed out that Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty can only lawfully be invoked by an Act of Parliament. The royal prerogative that ministers exercise on behalf of the Crown, which includes (at least nominally) the power to make treaties and to declare war, does not extend to the formal procedure for leaving the EU, because our membership of the EU is enshrined in our primary legislation, and an amending Act would therefore be required to start the process leading to the UK’s departure from the EU.

[horlock07]

There is a level of Democracy with this though.  Cameron was never going to hang around if he lost the referendum, so those voting leave were also voting for new leadership.  So to a certain extent the democratic vote has got what it wanted, just not a choice of the replacement.

There was plenty on social media to suggest that to many it was a referendum on Cameron's leadership, unfortunately Boris didn't stay around long enough to complete the job.

[ghanimah]

That's not the line that a Barrister told me last week, there is all manner of legal permutations and wrangling's already going on regarding this (according to him anyway!)

The Lisbon Treaty was ratified by Parliament by due process, including Article 50. The documents were then deposited in Rome, in compliance with international law, thus Parliament has already agreed to Article 50 being used.

[horlock07]

The Lisbon Treaty was ratified by Parliament by due process, including Article 50. The documents were then deposited in Rome, in compliance with international law, thus Parliament has already agreed to Article 50 being used.

You are probably right, its way outside my area of legal expertise I am merely passing on what the Barrister was stating in advice?

[Wobbly Bob]

the party elects its leader. 

Not in this case though.

If there was to be an election, which I don't think there will be, would they get another five years or would it be just a validation of the current term to 2020.

If it's the former, then given the state of the opposition they might as well go for it.

Following a promising start for Brown, he may well have won had an election been called on becoming PM.

[RobertT]

In my view invoking Article 50 should be delayed or invoked with a caveat of an extension of an additional couple of years with agreement of other member states. Thus giving us time.

We need to have experienced civil servants in place to conduct the negotiations but unfortunately we no longer have the quantity of experienced civil servants, as over 43 years this process has been outsourced to Brussels. Thus we need to employ rather quickly experienced negotiators

I personally don't expect, as a result, Article 50 to be invoked before the New Year.

Even if we served Article 50 right now, it would be longer than 2 years of negotiations.  The two year period is just for us to negotiate leaving terms (if they are even agreed to at all, as they need to be ratified by the remaining members).  After that, we get to begin trade deal negotiations, which could be another few years.

The sooner we get on with it all the better.

In terms of legality, either side seems confident, but either way, any politician NOT enacting the will of a referendum would probably be a bit of a sitting duck.

I really don't get people moaning about a lack of democracy, we vote for a local politician to represent our area - the fact everyone chooses to vote by colours is irrelevant, the leader of that party and hence PM isn't anywhere near the ballot paper.