Let's Get Political!

[horlock07]

Read a good stat yesterday. Apparently the amount of benefit money Brits living in other European countries claim is almost equal to the amount European immigrants are handed out in the UK

Just out of interest what was the source of that, just doesn't sound correct to me - although I suspect as the majority who go from the UK to Europe are elderly there may be some truth in it!

[horlock07]

The bookies don't get elections/referendums wrong these days, unlike pollsters.

Remain is heavy odds on favourite

I am not convinced, the public hate Cameron and Osborne and love Boris who seems to be able to say whatever comes into his head and it just gets lapped up so I think its going to be very close, be interesting to see what tactical voting also happens in Scotland as if they vote in and the wider UK votes out that will provide some good ammunition for another independence bun fight?

[suttonred]

This summary on the BBC website pretty much sums up what a dogs dinner we're being served.

For voters who are only just tuning into the EU referendum debate they might take one look and tune out again.

What they might see this morning - one side accusing the other of being a bunch of liars who you wouldn't trust to feed your cat, the other side claiming the others include bitter has-beens and a load of sneering patricians telling you they know best.

Political debate that, in some moments, isn't much more sophisticated than a bunch of school kids shouting "pants on fire" at each other in the playground.

Given this is one of the biggest choices we have made as a country for generations - I know that sounds trite but it is true - it's not exactly edifying to watch, and as happened during the wilder days of the Scottish referendum, this campaign is dabbling in a world where the truth is not a safe anchor.

[ghanimah]

What annoys me is that the "In" campaign seems to be all about how worse off we'll be financially if we leave.

What I want to know is if we leave how will services like the NHS, doctors, transport and public spending be affected ? What about access to schools ? The lack of housing ?

This is well worth a listen :

Financially everything is irrelevant. Should we vote to exit we would remain in the Single Market for the foreseeable future (The SM and the EU are different). But it allows us to remove ourselves from the anti-democratic "ever closer political union" while preserving the economic benefits of a single market.

This a good place to start on how we can exit

http://www.eureferendum.com/documents/flexcit.pdf

And a shorter version here

http://www.eureferendum.com/documents/flexcitlite.pdf

[Wobbly Bob]

Re Europe, maybe the best bet is to go with the bigger picture, we are Europeans at the end of the day, so as mentioned before, might be better to stick with devil you know.
If something needs changing, then the best way to change it is to agitate from within, not be on the outside looking in.
As for immigration, looks as if we are running at a net gain of 300,000 people per year.
This is surely something for the government of the day to adequately plan ahead for and sort out,
improve infrastructure, build more more schools and hospitals. It's not rocket science.

This "they are taking our jobs" argument is bollocks.
The average British attitude to work is not cut out for wiping shitty bums in a care home for example, or cleaning hospitals, plumbing, bullding, the list goes on.
If it was, then there would not be a demand for a migrant work force.

[Samdy Gray]

David Mitchell sums it up for me:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/29/eu-referendum-parliament-leaders-david-cameron-david-mitchell

[horlock07]

David Mitchell sums it up for me:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/29/eu-referendum-parliament-leaders-david-cameron-david-mitchell

Interesting reading from the most soulless person in the media, however as we are having  a referendum doesn't really move us forward? 

[Reg Smeeton]

Re Europe, maybe the best bet is to go with the bigger picture, we are Europeans at the end of the day, so as mentioned before, might be better to stick with devil you know.
If something needs changing, then the best way to change it is to agitate from within, not be on the outside looking in.
As for immigration, looks as if we are running at a net gain of 300,000 people per year.
This is surely something for the government of the day to adequately plan ahead for and sort out,
improve infrastructure, build more more schools and hospitals. It's not rocket science.

Both sides more or less agree that the EU is a corrupt, dysfunctional, supranational body with a democratic deficit....Remain in the form of Cameron, think we can live with that as long as certain things don't apply to us, like Eurozone and Schengen.

Cameron thinks his negotiated package, covered our arse on "ever greater union" which is why UK has been an expansion enthusiast, lobbying for the inclusion of the old Warsaw pact...sadly his Neville Chamberlain act, only exposed Brexit's point that the EU is beyond reform.

Danger lies in both camps....Remain rarely  mention where they see the EU heading....decisions are taken with little regard for the people of the EU but a lot of regard for bankers and elites. Brexit is headed up by some very dodgy types, who you might not want getting their hands on government.

I'm leaning towards an out vote, on the basis that the EU has plenty of history in ignoring plebicites, and an out vote might force some of the reforms that are sought by Remain....either way this looks like it's going to be close, so probably not sufficient to base a firm decision with the electorate so divided.

Might change my mnd in thre next fortnight mind.

[Reg Smeeton]

 As if by magic to back up my previous post, it looks like our "representatives" in our own Parliament are already plotting in the event of the wrong decision being made...

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/06/pro-eu-mps-could-mount-guerrilla-campaign-to-reverse-brexit-decision

[Wobbly Bob]

I'm wondering if a very close exit verdict e.g. 1 or 2% might mean that the resulting negotiations are biased accordingly i.e. do the minimum required while retaining the majority of the less contentious stuff.
However, I do think that a majority for exit should make the positions of the key remain campaigners in the government untenable.
This could leave us with Boris, Gove & IDS.
Either way, the Bullingdon club would still be in charge.

[horlock07]

I'm wondering if a very close exit verdict e.g. 1 or 2% might mean that the resulting negotiations are biased accordingly i.e. do the minimum required while retaining the majority of the less contentious stuff.
However, I do think that a majority for exit should make the positions of the key remain campaigners in the government untenable.
This could leave us with Boris, Gove & IDS.
Either way, the Bullingdon club would still be in charge.

As the main reason behind at the very least Johnson's involvement is a lunge for the leadership I think a cabinet including the three you mention is inevitable. The interesting thing will be what happens with Farage, he is unlikely to go quietly if his pet project is achieved and leads to a Johnson led administration, if he obtains a seat I would strongly suspect he will demand and obtain a cabinet seat, especially as many UKIP supporters are doing the dirty work and saying the more radical stuff that the Tories Brexiters will not?

If we have a close run thing, Cameron resigns and then if Johnson gets in, the rump of the moderate Tories could force through a vote of no confidence with the Labour MP's and we could have a rapid Corbyn v. Johnson election which would make interesting viewing.

I fear whatever the outcome turbulent times, uncertainty and financial instability will all be with us for the next 12-18 months!

To add a bit:

Its actually getting quite interesting if you are interested in politics, come year end we could have a split Labour Party (corbynista's v. 'New' Labour) and a split Tory party, (central inclined led by god knows who (Osborne??) v. right leaning Ukip similar right led by Johnson supported by Gove and IDS) If only the Lib Dems could get their house in some sort of order (tall ask!) we could potentially have a 5 horse race come next election?

[ghanimah]

David Mitchell sums it up for me:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/29/eu-referendum-parliament-leaders-david-cameron-david-mitchell

I'm not a huge fan of referendums myself, particularly as Cameron has driven a coach and horses through the constitution to have one in June. It's for good reason referendums are banned in Germany.

However we can't trust Parliament either they are the ones that took us into the then EEC and passed the Maastricht Treaty on a complete and utter lie.

[sonicyouth]

NORWAY!!

[Wobbly Bob]

Not sure the "not in EU" Norwegian model would work for the UK with population of 65m v 5m for Norway.
The average working week of 33 hours would be good though.

[Wobbly Bob]

As the main reason behind at the very least Johnson's involvement is a lunge for the leadership I think a cabinet including the three you mention is inevitable. The interesting thing will be what happens with Farage, he is unlikely to go quietly if his pet project is achieved and leads to a Johnson led administration, if he obtains a seat I would strongly suspect he will demand and obtain a cabinet seat, especially as many UKIP supporters are doing the dirty work and saying the more radical stuff that the Tories Brexiters will not?

If we have a close run thing, Cameron resigns and then if Johnson gets in, the rump of the moderate Tories could force through a vote of no confidence with the Labour MP's and we could have a rapid Corbyn v. Johnson election which would make interesting viewing.

I fear whatever the outcome turbulent times, uncertainty and financial instability will all be with us for the next 12-18 months!

To add a bit:

Its actually getting quite interesting if you are interested in politics, come year end we could have a split Labour Party (corbynista's v. 'New' Labour) and a split Tory party, (central inclined led by god knows who (Osborne??) v. right leaning Ukip similar right led by Johnson supported by Gove and IDS) If only the Lib Dems could get their house in some sort of order (tall ask!) we could potentially have a 5 horse race come next election?

Yeah, definitely an opportunity for a Lib Dem revival and they could take their pick of either centre right, centre left or middle ground, as there is likely to be a political void in all of these areas.