A ponder on next season....

[Dazzza]

Having a hungover day off I have been contemplating just how things will shape out for the forthcoming season at Swindon Town.  Uncertain probably sums it up in one word.

Take the current playing squad.  Excluding the youth team, those just offered their first pro-terms and Sam Parkin, who bar a minor act of divine intervention is as likely to report at the CG for the first game of 05/06 as Willie Carson, we could well be down to just eight experienced professionals.  That figure is dependant on whom, if any out of the remaining trio of Evans, Igoe and Duke sign a new contract.

From the three contract rebels or to put it another way those that have not received offers elsewhere yet, all three have expressed disappointment with what’s on the table.  Evans being the more valuable asset out of the three will undoubtedly walk if the right deal comes in, Duke who has been offered his third reduced contract in a row given the situation may just walk and take a gamble on finding a new club and finally Igoe who has expressed a desire to stay is only likely to accept if he is given a two year deal.  Out of the three Evans would be a big loss but goalkeepers are usually a fairly easy position to replace, Duke’s one big loss will be his versatility and after losing Smith and Howard his ability to (occasionally) play out on the left.  Finally Igoe as poor as he’s been in part this season past I’d like to see him stay if he re-capture some of that form from the playoff season then he’s certainly worth  gamble.

So where does that leave us?  Possibly without a single experienced goalkeeper in the side.   A back four of Jenkins, O’Hanlon, Ifil, Nicholas and in case of emergencies the registered Alan Reeves.  A midfield of, errm Stefani Migilornzi who as great as he is on his day spends more time on the treatment table than an Andy King post match interview.  Finally a strike force of Roberts and Fallon who have both shown glimpses of what they are capable off but also suffered poor runs of form and it remains to be seen if they can forge a consistent formidable partnership up front together.

It’s hard to see where Andy King’s priorities should lie for next season.  Possibly putting out a squad of eleven players may be a good start.  If Evans goes as much as a disappointment it will be, bringing in two new goalkeepers will not be too much of a big job.  The defence has a good solid base to build around with O’Hanlon, Ifil and Jenkins.  Hopefully Nicholas can re-capture some of that form of last season and with perhaps one more experienced head and a couple of versatile youngsters as cover there is not to much work to be done.  The midfield or lack of it is a concern.  Perhaps though this may not be such a bad thing.  Smith is a big loss and it looks like he’s a done deal to Bristol City.  Losing Howard in the fashion that’s happened is a bit of a cock up.  Even if we had offered a derisory contract which could have been re-negotiated on the outcome of Grant Smith’s decision we could have then commanded a fee if he left or upped it enough for him to consider staying.  That said King’s reluctance to play him on the left where it looks like he’ll play for Bournemouth when he signs would not have possibly made that big a difference.  With the departures in the middle it gives the opportunity to give the midfield a long overdue overhaul.  If we can bring in some players with some real physical presence and experience coupled with some attacking players like Igoe then we will be half way there.

Up front Parkin is going to leave a big void and it’s vital that King replaces him before the season kicks off.  Starting last season with just two recognised strikers undoubtedly cost us and what ever the thoughts on Mooney past it or not his goals were never likely to be replaced by Lloyd Opara.

Either way on the contract front it’s a big job facing King when he gets off the golf course in Spain.  With a lot of clubs already taking the lead and starting to poach the cream of the out of contract players the club’s reluctance to start offering contracts until later in the summer and waiting on the outcome of those players still deciding on contracts may well cost us.

So far those that have been linked with a move have looked very promising but a big question mark hangs over the head on just how realistic any of them are.  Lee Holmes on a season long deal would be fantastic but he’s highly rated at Derby and how likely George Burley will be to committing him out on a season with no right to re-call is anyone’s guess.  Manchester United youngster Tierney looks another promising target but it’s guaranteed that like a lot of the United youth team products he will attract the attention of a lot of clubs.  The Bolton duo of Shakes and Platt look to be the most likely among the first new arrivals but Shakes has a trial at Watford this week while Platt is largely unproved.  As for the Thorpe and Cureton link, well all I can think off is if we can’t afford to keep Matty Heywood what chance do we have of paying two relatively high earners who will be without doubt be looking for at least a two year deal apiece.      

The biggest fear has to be relegation.  For a lot of teams it offers the chance to re-build and re-structure but could we even survive with the way the club is structured at present?  Ticket prices of £23.00 for fourth division football is not acceptable and that will be to even the most die hard of fans.  Gates would unquestionably fall and with the club operating presently at a loss on a hand to mouth basis it’s hard to see where enough cuts could be made without having to re-raise ticket prices to once again hit the widely speculated break even figure. Without investment it would certainly mean potential oblivion.

Until we see some action the bigger picture will remain clouded on just how things will develop in the lon term.  There are certainly plenty of good players availible on free contracts in the summer but just what chance we have of signing them is a bit of a mystery.  The transfer window is going to mean King has to get it right as there won't be any loan signings to cover any shakey new signings, injuries and suspensions.  One thing for sure it certainly goes to show there is never a dull moment being a Town fan.

[Batch]

When you put it like that I think I'll cry.

I guess we need 4x midfield,  2x Keepers, a striker and a defender. I'd imagine a fair few loan deals will be involved in this.

[Marie]

Think its safe to say its not looking good, and we really aren't going to have a big squad for next season.
Any chance of Woan being registered? Scored a quality goal in des walkers testimonial last monday.

[Reg Smeeton]

I would say that was a completely reasoned analysis of where things stand at this point in time......but there are so many uncertainties in all of this, that  iI'm loathe to give it too much thought  until a few of them are resolved.

 One thing is clear, we badly need to see a bit of progress on the ground front, because the present situation is clearly unsustainable.

[Batch]

I can't see us survivng as a (professional) club if the ground deal goes completely tits up.

Even delays could see us get relagated through lack of ability to pay players, as may happen next year.

Like you say Reg, got to wait and see what happens on the playing front.

[Ben Wah Balls]

Good analysis, the defence is not too bad, attack largely depends on whether Fallon and Roberts perform up to standard/who else is signed and the midfield will be completely different. Should be interesting though and I reckon we'll get a few decent signings.

[sonicyouth]

Okay, this is how I'm looking at the current situation. Players in italics are Duke, Igoe and Evans, all three who I feel are more likely to re-sign than leave and players in bold are players King has linked us with and Mildenhall, because it simply makes sense.

GK - Evans (Mildenhall?)
DR - Jenkins, Lapham, Duke
DL - Nicholas Duke (Tierney?)
DC - Ifil, O'Hanlon, Reeves (Comyn-Platt?)
MR - Igoe (Shakes?)
ML - (Holmes?)
MC - Miglioranzi, Pook, Igoe
FC - Roberts, Fallon, Caton (Thorpe/Cureton?)

Ignoring the rumoured players and taking it as read that Duke, Igoe and Evans would all leave, we would be down to 11 senior players, three of whom have played no more than a few games and  player/assistant manager Alan Reeves. This would mean that for a viable squad with cover in all the correct positions, we would need to sign players for the following positions:

2x Goalkeepers
1x Left back
2x Central defenders, preferably one who is versatile enough to play fullback
2x Right wingers
2x Left wingers
3x Central midfielders, absolutely neccesary that one of them is a ball winner.
1x Moderately experienced proven forward to replace Parkin.

If we managed to acquire players for the above positions, we would have 24 squad members, roughly the same number we have now. However, if you consider the players we have been linked with (in bold) and those out-of-contract (in italics) and assumed they will all sign - which of course is highly unlikely, but this is all entirely hypothetical anyway - then we would have a fairly good squad, albeit lacking in one key position - midfield. We could almost certainly need to sign another player capable of playing on either wing and it's a neccesity that we sign a solid central midfielder who will get stuck in, throw himself into tackles, win the ball and use it wisely. I'd say that a large part of next season hinges on whether or not we sign a player in that mould. I feel Pook, Caton and Lapham are all capable of providing adequate backup next season and it would certainly save us some money to spend on bringing in proven first team players who should bring with them some experience.

Now, of course this is all entirely hypothetical, but if you look back to the end of 2002-2003 and the pre-season of 2003-2004, King bought in upto ten players during the course of that period and further into the season. If he manages to bring in players of the same calibre and of course in the neccesary positions, then I think we will manage just fine. Clearly, scouting players and signing them is what King is best at so I'm fairly confident that he will be able to fulfill this requirement, at least in a satisfactory manner. Yes, he has bought in some duds before but he's also unearthed O'Hanlon, Parkin, Smith etc and there's nothing to say he won't be able to do the same again, our finances may be shot but I'm sure we can offer a contract worthy of a Premiership youngster still.

Looking at the players who will remain at the club this summer, there are a few potentially solid players in there as Dazzza says - O'Hanlon, Jenkins, Nicholas, Roberts (given a full pre-season to regain his fitness and pace), Fallon (provided he hits a run of form) and Miglioranzi (barring injuries) - who are all capable of performing at a level which will undoubtedly keep us in this division. Naturally, a lot depends on other factors but this is the same as every season for every club. We've had a lot of bad luck this season, maybe we'll get some good luck next year - I'm clinging on to that illogical vain hope. King is capable of bringing in the right players and given that our midfield has been the weak point for a few years now, this is the perfect opportunity for him to revamp it entirely. If he does this correctly and signs players to fill other positions we need, then I'm willing to bet my life on us staying up and I think we could even challenge again. Nobody really expected us to challenge in 03/04 but after a overhaul of the squad that summer, we managed to pull something out of the bag and we really should have been playing City in Cardiff.

Perhaps I'm being very naive, it's highly likely that I am, but I'm trying to remain optimistic about next season and I can't really believe that some people honestly believe we will get relegated. Our finances are in a state but that is why the club are cutting costs, reducing the wage bill etc, to stop us from going bust. I'd rather get relegated than go bust anyway, after all what happened the last time we were in the bottom division?  

I'd also say that it's pretty important we get a capable assistant manager in before pre-season starts, but that's not going to happen and could seriously hamper our preperations. Too many cooks spoil the broth, especially those who don't know their role.

Anyway, I've rambled on for a while now. I'm trying be optimistic, don't shoot me down in flames! Regardless of anything else, next season will bring plenty of beers, we'll have the fuzzy warm feeling of sponsoring a player and you can always watch the scoreboard if the game is crap.

[DiV]

we are well and truely fucked next season....

Our midfield will be terrible, Igoe, Howard, Smith, Hewlett, Turbo all likely to go...still reckon Turbo was worth another year and was a decent enough player at this level maybe its just me but letting him go could prove to be a real cock up. Think back to November when we played what is now a Championship side in Hull, Turbo ran the midfield that day....

At this rate we will need to register Reeves, Woan and Iffy as players....Reeves is still solid and reliable, he may be a yard off the pace physically but he is usually two yards ahead mentally. Woany can pass the ball better than any of our midfielders ever could.

Not looking forward to next season, I think it will be a struggle

[Piemonte]

SY, Dazzza

More paragraphs please! thats making my eyes bleed

[Whits]

SY, Dazzza

More paragraphs please! thats making my eyes bleed

i thought sonic was doing english @ College  :shock:  

[Piemonte]

He fucking needs to!

[sonicyouth]

Gerroutofit

[mrs_spacey]

Okay, this is how I'm looking at the current situation.

Players in italics are Duke, Igoe and Evans. I feel that all three are more likely to re-sign than leave.

Players in bold are players that King has linked to us (and Mildenhall simply because it makes sense).

GK - Evans (Mildenhall?)
DR - Jenkins, Lapham, Duke
DL - Nicholas Duke (Tierney?)
DC - Ifil, O'Hanlon, Reeves (Comyn-Platt?)
MR - Igoe (Shakes?)
ML - (Holmes?)
MC - Miglioranzi, Pook, Igoe
FC - Roberts, Fallon, Caton (Thorpe/Cureton?)


Ignoring the rumoured players (and taking it as read that Duke, Igoe and Evans will all leave), we would be down to 11 senior players - of whom three have played no more than a few games - and player/assistant manager Alan Reeves.

This would mean that for a viable squad, with cover in all the correct positions, we would need to sign players for the following positions:


2x Goalkeepers
1x Left back
2x Central defenders, preferably one who is versatile enough to play fullback
2x Right wingers
2x Left wingers
3x Central midfielders, absolutely neccesary that one of them is a ball winner.
1x Moderately experienced proven forward to replace Parkin.

If we managed to acquire players for the above positions, we would have 24 squad members, roughly the same number we have now.


However, if you consider the players we have been linked with (in bold) and those out-of-contract (in italics) and assumed they will all sign (which of course is highly unlikely but this is all entirely hypothetical anyway) - then we will have a fairly good squad, albeit lacking in one key position - midfield.

We will almost certainly need to sign another player capable of playing on either wing and it's a neccesity that we sign a solid central midfielder who will get stuck in, throw himself into tackles, win the ball and use it wisely.

I'd say that a large part of next season hinges on whether or not we sign a player in that mould. I feel Pook, Caton and Lapham are all capable of providing adequate backup next season and it would certainly save us some money to spend on bringing in proven first team players who should bring with them some experience.


Now, of course this is all entirely hypothetical, but if you look back to the end of 2002-2003 and the pre-season of 2003-2004, King bought in up to ten players during the course of that period and further into the season.

If he manages to bring in players of the same calibre and of course in the neccesary positions, then I think we will manage just fine.

Clearly, scouting players and signing them is what King is best at so I'm fairly confident that he will be able to fulfill this requirement, at least in a satisfactory manner. Yes, he has bought in some duds before but he's also unearthed O'Hanlon, Parkin, Smith etc and there's nothing to say he won't be able to do the same again, our finances may be shot but I'm sure we can offer a contract worthy of a Premiership youngster still.

Looking at the players who will remain at the club this summer, there are a few potentially solid players in there as Dazzza says:

O'Hanlon;
Jenkins;
Nicholas;
Roberts (given a full pre-season to regain his fitness and pace);
Fallon (provided he hits a run of form); and
Miglioranzi (barring injuries).

They are all capable of performing at a level which will undoubtedly keep us in this division. Naturally, a lot depends on other factors but this is the same as every season for every club. We've had a lot of bad luck this season, maybe we'll get some good luck next year - I'm clinging on to that illogical vain hope.


King is capable of bringing in the right players and given that our midfield has been the weak point for a few years now, this is the perfect opportunity for him to revamp it entirely. If he does this correctly and signs players to fill other positions we need, then I'm willing to bet my life on us staying up and I think we could even challenge again.

Nobody really expected us to challenge in 03/04 but after a overhaul of the squad that summer, we managed to pull something out of the bag and we really should have been playing City in Cardiff.


Perhaps I'm being very naive (it's highly likely that I am), but I'm trying to remain optimistic about next season and I can't really believe that some people honestly believe we will get relegated. Our finances are in a state but that is why the club are cutting costs, reducing the wage bill etc, to stop us from going bust. I'd rather get relegated than go bust anyway, after all what happened the last time we were in the bottom division?  

I'd also say that it's pretty important we get a capable assistant manager in before pre-season starts, but that's not going to happen and could seriously hamper our preparations. Too many cooks spoil the broth - especially those who don't know their role.


Anyway, I've rambled on for a while now. I'm trying be optimistic, don't shoot me down in flames!

Regardless of anything else, next season will bring plenty of beers, we'll have the fuzzy warm feeling of sponsoring a player and you can always watch the scoreboard if the game is crap.

 

[Piemonte]

 Regardless of anything else, next season will bring plenty of beers, we'll have the fuzzy warm feeling of sponsoring a player and you can always watch the scoreboard if the game is crap.

    All is well!

[Whits]

mrs_spacey,    i just read that whole post! you theif