Coronavirus

[4D]

Plus, what would the death rate have been if it was left unmanaged? A lot, lot more.
Also, 10.3 in a 1000 means the average life expectancy would be 97, which suggests the figure includes net migration and our population increase.

[Batch]

YouTube. I'm convinced

the false positive rate of PCR tests is estimated to be at most 4%, but likely much lower.

 And this is supported by empirical evidence.

Take Australia for example, a fairly low incidence rate. As testing has become more and more widespread. if there was a high % of false positives. then the incidence rate would naturally be bigger in proportion. it isn't.

obviously if you think it's a big global conspiracy theory you can claim the figures are fudged. But who on earth would bring this on the population... why..

[horlock07]

Take Australia for example, a fairly low incidence rate.

Yebbut they are an island so they can control it better....

We will be getting onto earth being flat next....

[ron dodgers]

After looking at the Sam Bailey vid
pcr tests are not the only thing used to diagnose Covid, there are clinical signs. There are a lot of patients occupying hospital beds in the UK, not so many in NZ. Excess deaths are notable higher at this time, again not in NZ.
Also, if she feels that the sequence targeted is not unique then say so (with your working out clearly shown), the test detects the presence of and sequence of amino acids that are unique to the virus, that is the theory, it has not been disproved yet.
Just my view though

[normy]

https://fb.watch/3zESjLCYbR/

Mrs Normy works with this consultant at GWH

[theakston2k]

I notice the case rate around me are back to August levels now and I see even Swindon isn't that far off. If things carry on with the same trend over the next couple of weeks its surely going to be hard to justify the lockdown continuing in certain areas at least.

[Flashheart]

Not really hard to justify it at all considering a lockdown will help to keep those numbers down. Lifting the restrictions that were in place probably helped it get out of control again. If anything, that the numbers have fallen away are a good indicator that lockdowns work.

[RobertT]

I notice the case rate around me are back to August levels now and I see even Swindon isn't that far off. If things carry on with the same trend over the next couple of weeks its surely going to be hard to justify the lockdown continuing in certain areas at least.

As an outsider observing, the hospital capacity will be a few weeks behind that it seems, so there could very well be a case in say a month to begin removing restrictions.  You'll have the cumulative impact of vaccination on top of the reduced spread as well.  Certainly moving in the right direction.

[4D]

Really?
Is it likely that the police would search their car? I don't accept a lot of the reasons that are given for these long trips. Like going for a burger, or posting a letter etc.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-56008606

[theakston2k]

Not really hard to justify it at all considering a lockdown will help to keep those numbers down. Lifting the restrictions that were in place probably helped it get out of control again. If anything, that the numbers have fallen away are a good indicator that lockdowns work.

Oh come off it, if cases in the south west carry on declining at there current rate then in 2 or 3 weeks the case rate will be that of June or July last year but with the vulnerable now having had a vaccine as well. There’s a few weeks lag with the decline in hospital numbers but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect the lockdown to be relaxed at the start of March at least for some areas.
Keeping a blanket lockdown in place to keep very low case rates very low would be impossible to justify, if you go down that route how long do you give it? Until there’s only a couple of cases a day across the whole country?

[Flashheart]

Oh come off it,

Yeah.

Because there's no evidence that lockdowns reduce the number of cases and help prevent them from increasing again?

So, no, no justification at all!

[Batch]

you have to be very careful until

1) everyone who is most vulnerable is vaccinated and this unlikely to need hospital treatment if they get it

2) there are no variants in the community that affect 1

especially given the Kent strain is more transmissable .

gradual lift starting with schools will happen. restrictions will be in place for a while yet

[horlock07]

This has pissed off a lot of people up here.... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cumbria-55978537

[pauld]

Oh come off it, if cases in the south west carry on declining at there current rate then in 2 or 3 weeks the case rate will be that of June or July last year but with the vulnerable now having had a vaccine as well. There’s a few weeks lag with the decline in hospital numbers but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect the lockdown to be relaxed at the start of March at least for some areas.
Keeping a blanket lockdown in place to keep very low case rates very low would be impossible to justify, if you go down that route how long do you give it? Until there’s only a couple of cases a day across the whole country?

It's almost as if some people have learned absolutely nothing from the last two spikes in infections. Sadly, a lot of them are in govt as well.

[Hunk]

I’m all for easing lockdown gradually, but at the same time I don’t think opportunities to unlock certain things at a different pace/order to last time if it is indeed safe to do so should be missed. This isn’t like the first time we unlocked. We are on the cusp of the weather improving and the vaccine, while not a foolproof key, does change the outlook for the better. Cautious optimism is what is needed.