Coronavirus

[RobertT]

Again you aren’t appreciating the differences between how countries are reporting deaths from this. We are the only country recording hospital, community and care homes deaths- no other country including the EU as far as I am aware is doing this. Germany don’t count anyone who already has a pre existing condition like COPD majorly deflating their numbers.

PPE is a major problem everywhere- a friend of mine works in Hannover in a hospital and they have had exactly the same issues with PPE shortages , even the Channel Islands have been effected and they’re self governing.

As I said, lessons will be learned throughout the world after all this- we’ve never had a pandemic before of this kind.

Anyone who thinks labour would’ve done better is seriously deluding themselves

I agree with the fact plenty have been useless, not just the UK - which I am not sure if that is your point or not.

I will disagree on one thing though - there have been Pandemics in recent history, some within a single generation.  There have been at least 3 in the 1900's on this scale or bigger - lessons were already learned, just not implemented.

[pauld]

"By leaving the elderly to die in care homes in their thousands" ? What's the answer then Paul?

Off the top of my head, how about taking some notice of the report into the Operation Cygnus exercise that warned exactly this would happen and maybe, you know, prepare for it? Sufficient PPE to prevent the spread of the disease to/from care home staff? Testing of staff and residents in care homes so that cases can be identified early and those with the disease can be treated in hospital instead of allowing it to spread like wildfire through the care home? And as FH says, actually treating care home residents in hospitals?

The point is that OR claimed that not allowing the NHS to be overwhelmed was one of the govt's achievements. And it is. But it's not an end goal in itself - the purpose of preventing the NHS from being overwhelmed is so that people didn't die in their thousands because they couldn't be treated and that we didn't have British doctors doing what Italian doctors had to, deciding who lived and who died, based on age etc. British doctors didn't have to do that, because the govt had made the decision for them by abandoning care homes to their own devices. Like so much of what this govt does this achievement was only achieved by sleight of hand, in this case by basically shifting the deaths elsewhere.

[pauld]

Again you aren’t appreciating the differences between how countries are reporting deaths from this. We are the only country recording hospital, community and care homes deaths- no other country including the EU as far as I am aware is doing this. Germany don’t count anyone who already has a pre existing condition like COPD majorly deflating their numbers.

No, you don't understand what the difference is between excess deaths and the Covid19 death count. Excess mortality is the number of deaths above and beyond that which we would normally experience in this time based on a five year average. It flattens out the anomalies between reporting methodologies, accounts for people who died because of the pandemic but not of Covid19 etc. It's internationally recognised (including in the UK) as the only sensible metric on which to measure how well any country has coped with this pandemic and it's why both the Chief Medical Officer and the Chief Scientific Office in the UK have said this is the best way to assess the death count.

As I said, lessons will be learned throughout the world after all this- we’ve never had a pandemic before of this kind.

There have been several over the past couple of decades, and as a result the UK drew up plans to cope with a pandemic because it was recognised as being in the top 3 threats to national security. S Korea based their pandemic plan on ours, they implemented theirs, we didn't. They have a low death rate, ours is horrific. The idea that this couldn't have been foreseen or prepared for is dreadful lie, because it was foreseen and planned for. But it wasn't prepared for and we are paying the price for that now.

[RobertT]

Hindsight is indeed a wonderful thing, so I popped back to the early pages to make sure I wasn't being smart after the event.  Thankfully I think I'm OK, Bamboo on the other hand - "May's Chip Shop paper" - if only 

[Outletred]

No, you don't understand what the difference is between excess deaths and the Covid19 death count. Excess mortality is the number of deaths above and beyond that which we would normally experience in this time based on a five year average. It flattens out the anomalies between reporting methodologies, accounts for people who died because of the pandemic but not of Covid19 etc. It's internationally recognised (including in the UK) as the only sensible metric on which to measure how well any country has coped with this pandemic and it's why both the Chief Medical Officer and the Chief Scientific Office in the UK have said this is the best way to assess the death count.
There have been several over the past couple of decades, and as a result the UK drew up plans to cope with a pandemic because it was recognised as being in the top 3 threats to national security. S Korea based their pandemic plan on ours, they implemented theirs, we didn't. They have a low death rate, ours is horrific. The idea that this couldn't have been foreseen or prepared for is dreadful lie, because it was foreseen and planned for. But it wasn't prepared for and we are paying the price for that now.

You conveniently ignore again the fact that the deaths are counted differently by country. I expect all their death counts are up not just ours.

There hasn’t been anything like this in my lifetime and I’m 60. I am slightly too young to live through the last pandemic which was Asian flu in 1957/58.

[pauld]

You conveniently ignore again the fact that the deaths are counted differently by country. I expect all their death counts are up not just ours.

Excess mortality isn't. For the 3rd time, it is the number of deaths above the previous five year average. It's an absolute count of deaths. Deaths aren't counted differently in different countries, a person who is dead in Germany would still be counted as dead in the UK or India or South Korea. And yes of course every country's excess mortality is up, that's the nature of a pandemic. But some are up by a small amount, ours has gone through the roof.
Have a look at the FT graph which may help you understand this a bit better

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

But actually it's you who keeps trying to do international comparisons, I just said that 42,000 excess deaths is dreadful in less than 3 months is terrible. I don't care if other govts have done a shit job of dealing with it, that doesn't excuse our govt for the thousands who have died due to their incompetence. Especially as we had much more warning of what was coming our way than most and we ignored it because we were pursuing "Herd immunity, protect the economy, and so what if a few thousand pensioners die" (Dominic Cummings).

There hasn’t been anything like this in my lifetime and I’m 60. I am slightly too young to live through the last pandemic which was Asian flu in 1957/58.

That wasn't the last pandemic. You might not have been aware of them but there have been several since then. The most recent was H1N1 in 2009. Just over a decade ago. There was also SARS and MERS, both respirotary diseases like Covid19 which were explicitly noted as potential risks for a pandemic in the UK planning for a pandemic. Again, the idea that this is either unforseeable or something we coudn't prepare for is simply untrue. Largely peddled by those who failed to prepare, both in this country and others.

[mystical_goat]

The NHS has not been overwhelmed which was the primary objective

That's not a primary objective.

But okay, achievement number 1 - hospitals were not overflowing with patients.

What did the government do to achieve this?

[Outletred]

Excess mortality isn't. For the 3rd time, it is the number of deaths above the previous five year average. It's an absolute count of deaths. Deaths aren't counted differently in different countries, a person who is dead in Germany would still be counted as dead in the UK or India or South Korea. And yes of course every country's excess mortality is up, that's the nature of a pandemic. But some are up by a small amount, ours has gone through the roof.
Have a look at the FT graph which may help you understand this a bit better

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

But actually it's you who keeps trying to do international comparisons, I just said that 42,000 excess deaths is dreadful in less than 3 months is terrible. I don't care if other govts have done a shit job of dealing with it, that doesn't excuse our govt for the thousands who have died due to their incompetence. Especially as we had much more warning of what was coming our way than most and we ignored it because we were pursuing "Herd immunity, protect the economy, and so what if a few thousand pensioners die" (Dominic Cummings).
That wasn't the last pandemic. You might not have been aware of them but there have been several since then. The most recent was H1N1 in 2009. Just over a decade ago. There was also SARS and MERS, both respirotary diseases like Covid19 which were explicitly noted as potential risks for a pandemic in the UK planning for a pandemic. Again, the idea that this is either unforseeable or something we coudn't prepare for is simply untrue. Largely peddled by those who failed to prepare, both in this country and others.

It’s a complete waste of time debating anything with you because you just take the moral high ground every time- you’re not correct about everything you know.

We won’t know the true numbers out of all this till probably a year down the line. You would disagree with anything a conservative government does anyway regardless of what it is.

[mexico red]

My province Malaga is not being given permission to move from phase 0 to phase 1 .

Bollocks.

Two more weeks before we try again

[pauld]

It’s a complete waste of time debating anything with you because you just take the moral high ground every time- you’re not correct about everything you know.

I'm attempting to engage with your arguments by stating the facts around why the govt's scientific advisers regard excess mortaility as the only reliable measure, what that is as you seemed to be confusing it with the Covid19 deaths report given in the daily briefing, and correcting you on previous pandemics of which there have been several in recent decades of which you seemed to be unaware. That's not "taking the moral high ground", that's having a rational fact-based discussion rather than arm-waving assertions.

Sorry if that upsets you (now, that's taking the moral high ground - see the difference?)

[singingiiiffy]

I'm attempting to engage with your arguments by stating the facts around why the govt's scientific advisers regard excess mortaility as the only reliable measure, what that is as you seemed to be confusing it with the Covid19 deaths report given in the daily briefing, and correcting you on previous pandemics of which there have been several in recent decades of which you seemed to be unaware. That's not "taking the moral high ground", that's having a rational fact-based discussion rather than arm-waving assertions.

Sorry if that upsets you (now, that's taking the moral high ground - see the difference?)

I know you quote these most days and it's not specifically at you or if anyone else can answer?

i still cant get my head around this excess death figure being extremely higher than the official death count and why other countries arent as excessive.

can the government be blamed for the high excess death level above the virus deaths? why is lockdown affecting us more than other countries when we have had a softer lockdown?

[pauld]

I know you quote these most days and it's not specifically at you or if anyone else can answer?

i still cant get my head around this excess death figure being extremely higher than the official death count and why other countries arent as excessive.

The excess mortaility rate is an official figure, it comes from the Office of National Statistics (ONS), a govt agency. But it's different from the figure presented at the daily briefings because that figure is only deaths recorded in hospitals or care homes where Covid19 has been given as the cause of death so for example it excludes deaths at home where there hasn't been a positive test result. Excess mortality on the other hand is deaths from all causes above and beyond the previous 5 years average, irrespective of cause of death. That's important because in a pandemic, lots of people die indirectly because e.g. they weren't able to get or didn't seek treatment for other illnesses or because they lost their job etc etc. And because it's an absolute figure (if you're dead, you're dead), it's not subject to the vagaries of reporting or ascribing death that OR was rightly saying is unreliable because of different and sometimes subjective standards of reporting. Hope that makes it a bit clearer, if not apologies for my poor explanation

why is lockdown affecting us more than other countries when we have had a softer lockdown?

Not sure what you mean by this?

[RobertT]

I know you quote these most days and it's not specifically at you or if anyone else can answer?

i still cant get my head around this excess death figure being extremely higher than the official death count and why other countries arent as excessive.

can the government be blamed for the high excess death level above the virus deaths? why is lockdown affecting us more than other countries when we have had a softer lockdown?

Excess deaths would capture people who died without diagnosis as well as indirect impact.  After the fact most Pandemics are revised up by looking at that.  It is important to know the direct and indirect impact to adjust future plans.  As an exam0le, if lockdowns cause more suicides, how can we put actions in place to reduce that next time, like more mental health strategies in your Pandemic plan.

The UK, Sweden, Netherlands, USA are all examples of a softer lockdown to various degrees and all are over 200 deaths per 100k population thus far.  In reality, all are much higher once you get to excess deaths.  This is a real slow burner virus, so it can take 6 weeks plus to see the impact of your decisions.

[singingiiiffy]

The excess mortaility rate is an official figure, it comes from the Office of National Statistics (ONS), a govt agency. But it's different from the figure presented at the daily briefings because that figure is only deaths recorded in hospitals or care homes where Covid19 has been given as the cause of death so for example it excludes deaths at home where there hasn't been a positive test result. Excess mortality on the other hand is deaths from all causes above and beyond the previous 5 years average, irrespective of cause of death. That's important because in a pandemic, lots of people die indirectly because e.g. they weren't able to get or didn't seek treatment for other illnesses or because they lost their job etc etc. And because it's an absolute figure (if you're dead, you're dead), it's not subject to the vagaries of reporting or ascribing death that OR was rightly saying is unreliable because of different and sometimes subjective standards of reporting. Hope that makes it a bit clearer, if not apologies for my poor explanationNot sure what you mean by this?

cheers- I knew what the figures show and why they are used it's more why the gap between official deaths and total deaths is so big.

its the indirect virus deaths that concern me and confuse me. it suggests that huge amounts are dying- more than normal and as you said it could be because of treatment and fear of going to hospital. but the NHS isnt at capacity and they have been urging people to use doctors and hospitals for everything else. so why is it so high? if we were at full capacity it would make more sense.

[pauld]

cheers- I knew what the figures show and why they are used it's more why the gap between official deaths and total deaths is so big.

its the indirect virus deaths that concern me and confuse me. it suggests that huge amounts are dying- more than normal and as you said it could be because of treatment and fear of going to hospital. but the NHS isnt at capacity and they have been urging people to use doctors and hospitals for everything else. so why is it so high? if we were at full capacity it would make more sense.

Thousands are dying in care homes. Many of them are undiagnosed with Covid because the govt's testing strategy has largely been based around testing in hospitals, which largely aren't taking care home residents, or at regional centres that you have to drive miles to get to, clearly not practical for frail care home residents. So they don't get tested, don't get diagnosed, but they do die. That's a big part of why the NHS hasn't been overwhelmed, because care home residents have been left exposed to ease the pressure on the NHS. As mystical goat said, protecting the NHS is a key strategic aim but it's a secondary goal, something you do "because otherwise". And that "because otherwise" is the NHS is overwhelmed and lots of people die. Allowing lots of people to die to stop the NHS getting overwhelmed is at best getting your priorities wrong, at worst cynically shifting where people are dying so you don't have stories coming out like in Italy where doctors were having to choose who lived and died. Doctors haven't (by and large) had to do that here, because it's already been decided for them.