Coronavirus

[RobertT]

Russia and Turkey looks worrying, both run by people who have tight control and at least one of them who was using his powers to tell everyone in the country it was all under control and how strong they were.  That didn't work out so well for one close to home for me!

Brazil seems to be climbing as well, another country with a leader who thought propaganda could solve the problem.

There are a number of countries where the data looks pretty odd as well.  Once people review this in a few years, the death toll will be recorded much higher.  NYC is already having to add nearly 4k extra deaths because they died before any tests could be done and the next patient needed seeing to.

[RobertT]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/us/bishop-gerald-glenn-daughter/index.html

I don't wish ill on anyone, but some people make it hard.

[pauld]

There are a number of countries where the data looks pretty odd as well.  Once people review this in a few years, the death toll will be recorded much higher.  NYC is already having to add nearly 4k extra deaths because they died before any tests could be done and the next patient needed seeing to.

We will have the same once deaths in care homes and the community are added in - figures from Scotland show 25% of deaths are in care homes; in Europe it is between 40-50%. So our current toll of just under 14,000 which is horrific enough is probably already well over 20k.

[Bogus Dave]

Can't draw conclusions from day to day numbers, too many variables, too much lag, esp when we know that large amounts of deaths, never mind cases, are not being reported. WHO have described the situation in Europe generally as improving apart from continuing disappointing figures in UK, Russia, Belarus and Turkey. We are still with the outliers (and not the good ones) unfortunately

The 7 day average is starting to flatten too tho, not just day-to-day variances - 4 of the last 6 7dayavgs have been 800 or thereabouts

I know it doesn’t count everything, but I’d hazard a bet the numbers reported in Spain and Italy and elsewhere have similar holes in them. I think for the purposes of understanding right now where we are the daily death reporting is a decent enough proxy - fill in the gaps in the future, once we have the time and the information

[pauld]

The 7 day average is starting to flatten too tho, not just day-to-day variances - 4 of the last 6 7dayavgs have been 800 or thereabouts

I know it doesn’t count everything, but I’d hazard a bet the numbers reported in Spain and Italy and elsewhere have similar holes in them. I think for the purposes of understanding right now where we are the daily death reporting is a decent enough proxy - fill in the gaps in the future, once we have the time and the information

Fair enough on the average, but France, Spain and Italy have been including deaths in care homes. It's how we know that the numbers of deaths in care homes in Europe is between 40-50%.

I find this tracker from the FT is really useful - as you say, it agrees with you that deaths in the UK appear to be plateauing. The govt's CSO was more guarded in his assessment yesterday when a journalist tried to get him to say we had reached the peak, his view was that it was too early to say that.

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

[Peter Venkman]

As if things couldnt get much worse, the Darwin Award goes to these citizens in Michigan.

https://www.theguardian.com/global/video/2020/apr/16/armed-protesters-demand-an-end-to-michigans-coronavirus-lockdown-orders-video

[Flashheart]

As if things couldnt get much worse, the Darwin Award goes to these citizens in Michigan.

https://www.theguardian.com/global/video/2020/apr/16/armed-protesters-demand-an-end-to-michigans-coronavirus-lockdown-orders-video

'Murica.

[Ardiles]

Fair enough on the average, but France, Spain and Italy have been including deaths in care homes. It's how we know that the numbers of deaths in care homes in Europe is between 40-50%.

I find this tracker from the FT is really useful - as you say, it agrees with you that deaths in the UK appear to be plateauing. The govt's CSO was more guarded in his assessment yesterday when a journalist tried to get him to say we had reached the peak, his view was that it was too early to say that.

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

These graphs are very useful in providing an overview.  But I do wish that more of them didn't use a logarithmic scale.

[tans]

Another 3 weeks

[Costanza]

Inevitable.

From a selfish point of view, I'm starting to worry about my job a wee bit. There's been zero indication from my employers but I guess it's natural to worry. Absolutely cannot wait to return to the office.

[StfcRusty]

Whilst we’ve heard quite a bit about New Zealand, somewhere closer to home is also seemingly doing much better than the UK - Slovakia.
Admittedly, they are a country of less than 6 million but decisively closed all borders on 12 March, whereas we are currently admitting 15,000 people a day through our airports, none of whom are being tested.

Slovakia have had 8 deaths so far and less than 1000 confirmed cases.

[suttonred]

Whilst we’ve heard quite a bit about New Zealand, somewhere closer to home is also seemingly doing much better than the UK - Slovakia.
Admittedly, they are a country of less than 6 million but decisively closed all borders on 12 March, whereas we are currently admitting 15,000 people a day through our airports, none of whom are being tested.

Slovakia have had 8 deaths so far and less than 1000 confirmed cases.

To pick up on that I'm quite and avid lurker on flight radar. There is a constant stream of planes (admittedly far less than normal) coming from the US

[Batch]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/us/bishop-gerald-glenn-daughter/index.html

I don't wish ill on anyone, but some people make it hard.

go ahead, bash the bishop

[suttonred]

Inevitable.

From a selfish point of view, I'm starting to worry about my job a wee bit. There's been zero indication from my employers but I guess it's natural to worry. Absolutely cannot wait to return to the office.

I'm starting to think the same even though as local Govt I'm pretty safe for now. My role though has been downgraded from a P1 to a P2. those downgraded to P4 are expected to swap roles shortly. P3's are shitting it.  I've even asked the question about reciprocal council swaps just in case. As i'm sure surrey might need a laid back beer loving Technical manager even though they dont know it yet

[The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey]

I wonder if this is why Greece has not been so badly affected. Get tough!

‘It is also recalled that 1,000 euros for each person is the fine for public gatherings of more than ten people, which also applies to gatherings for roasting lamb.’