Coronavirus

[Flashheart]

Thank fuck it's 'only' 5,000.

What time's we're living in.

Just to clarify, in times when people might get touchy, that was just a general observation. Not directed at anybody here.

You bunch of cunts

[RobertT]

One of two things is being shown with the virus, based on everyone pretty much putting in place restrictions worldwide.  Even 4 weeks after we essentially close off human contact we are still seeing people hospitalised.  Either it is a really slow burner or it is contagious as shit.  Neither is good.

In a couple of weeks you would expect it to really tail off, but there needs to be a robust system put in place now to deal with new cases.  Based on those two factors any resurgence will be tough to contain again if we do it the same way, beyond having to keep running from one side of the ship to the other.

[4D]

I'm no expert but I'd imagine it would be much much worse without the restrictions. What we must all remember is that this virus can survive for some time on surfaces, so even with social distancing we are touching buttons, handles, rails etc. When going anywhere away from home, be it for groceries or exercise, don't touch your face and wash your hands as soon as you get home. Thoroughly.

[mexico red]

Well in that case I stand corrected, apologies Mex.

Bloody hell fella , no need to apologise. I was just shocked when I saw the figure! I don’t think Spain or Italy ever had that many infections in one day. Christ I hope this goes away as soon as possible and we get our lives back.

[Cookie]

I'm not sure if it's been posted before, so I'll post it again... the FT tracker is good for trend analysis https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest.

The laissez faire lockdown, economy over health approach, from the UK and US will lead to a bigger peak in the first wave, just as it's intended to do. Whether this is the best decision is to be seen.

[Batch]

I'm no expert but I'd imagine it would be much much worse without the restrictions. 

without restrictions the infection rate (and consequently death rate) could double every 3-4 days.  You could get up to 6 figure deaths within a couple of months or so

I say could, because there wasn't absolute certainty. But you don't lock down countries for fun.

Flattening the curve will make the whole thing last longer, but hopefully a lot less fatal. And I guess the aim is to get it down to a level where we can track contact and isolate allowing us to lift restrictions and become more targeted at control.

but we aren't at the peak yet. well not definitely. and the government is covering this as shown by the nightingale hospitals & morgues.

[Jimmy HaveHave]

without restrictions the infection rate (and consequently death rate) could double every 3-4 days.  You could get up to 6 figure deaths within a couple of months or so

I say could, because there wasn't absolute certainty. But you don't lock down countries for fun.

Flattening the curve will make the whole thing last longer, but hopefully a lot less fatal. And I guess the aim is to get it down to a level where we can track contact and isolate allowing us to lift restrictions and become more targeted at control.

but we aren't at the peak yet. well not definitely. and the government is covering this as shown by the nightingale hospitals & morgues.

The two countries that intrigue me are Sweden with no lockdown and only 870 deaths and India with a population of 1.3 billion, in lockdown but only 249 reported deaths

[Batch]

yes, I guess I could put Sweden down to sparse population and good social distancing...

but India?...

they could be a few weeks behind

edit.

blimey, I'd totally lost track that our official numbers put us on 12% mortality rate 😲

India is 3%

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

[Valid Pint]

The two countries that intrigue me are Sweden with no lockdown and only 870 deaths and India with a population of 1.3 billion, in lockdown but only 249 reported deaths

Cold & heat?

[mexico red]

Was chatting with Spanish and English friends last night and one of them had a theory which i thought was quite interesting. Countries who either like or fear their government and/or police force seem to respect (or fear) the consequences of the virus. He was saying that the Uk and the USA have little respect or fear of government and/or police hence he believed the virus would be far worse there than in other countries

[Ardiles]

The laissez faire lockdown, economy over health approach, from the UK and US will lead to a bigger peak in the first wave, just as it's intended to do. Whether this is the best decision is to be seen.

Fintan O'Toole has a piece (link) in the Guardian today about how - in his view - Tory belief in the mantra of British Exceptionalism will have added significantly to the death toll.  But it would be interesting to know whether, as you suggest, having a bigger first wave is a conscious policy choice.

yes, I guess I could put Sweden down to sparse population and good social distancing...

I've seen this argument before, but it doesn't feel right to me.  Even in a sparsely populated country like Sweden, most of the population lives in urban centres.  Only 13% of the total population (link) lives in rural areas.  So the countryside is basically empty.  Population density in places where people actually live is probably not very different to the UK or Netherlands.

Edit: That said, I agree with you on the social distancing point in Sweden.  Swedes demand a lot of personal space and don't get close to others unless they absolutely have to.  One of the reasons, maybe, that the government there is comfortable without a full lockdown.

[Jimmy HaveHave]

yes, I guess I could put Sweden down to sparse population and good social distancing...

but India?...

they could be a few weeks behind

edit.

blimey, I'd totally lost track that our official numbers put us on 12% mortality rate 😲

India is 3%

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

It's scary stuff Batch and two weeks ago a fairly healthy guy at work in his early 50's self isolated as he had a sore throats but within that two weeks he deteriorated and we got told on Thursday he had sadly passed away with the virus

This was Sweden seven days ago so don't know if things have changed since
https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/04/04/why-swedes-are-not-yet-locked-down

[RobertT]

Sweden's death per 100k is high and growing.  They probably did benefit from natural social distancing and being compliant with the Govt, like Japan.  But this virus is so pervasive that unless you do something it will get you.  Even Hong Kong has struggled after dampening their first wave.  Once it gets a grip it seems to take off unless you get lucky, have stupidly remote population spread or take strict control measures.  South Koreas original approach seems the most likely for what we shift to after lockdown.  Still going to be months of needing a firm Health policy in place though.

[Jimmy HaveHave]

Sweden's death per 100k is high and growing.  They probably did benefit from natural social distancing and being compliant with the Govt, like Japan.  But this virus is so pervasive that unless you do something it will get you.  Even Hong Kong has struggled after dampening their first wave.  Once it gets a grip it seems to take off unless you get lucky, have stupidly remote population spread or take strict control measures.  South Koreas original approach seems the most likely for what we shift to after lockdown.  Still going to be months of needing a firm Health policy in place though.

Agreed Robert and it will probably be around all summer into the Autumn and God only knows what it will do to the economy

[pauld]

In a couple of weeks you would expect it to really tail off, but there needs to be a robust system put in place now to deal with new cases.  Based on those two factors any resurgence will be tough to contain again if we do it the same way, beyond having to keep running from one side of the ship to the other

Think you've encapsulated govt policy right there. I don't think they've actually given up on herd immunity, they've just recognised that the number of deaths from full-on "take it on the chin" will be politically unacceptable. So we'll see partial lifting of the lockdown once we're past the peak of this 1st wave, followed by partial, rolling lock downs for the next 12 months or so until we get a vaccine