Coronavirus

[pauld]

yh we should have been going along as normal whilst stock piling behind the scenes and getting ready. with every country demanding the same equipment it was always going to hard but we could have approached uk companies to build earlier.

Anecdotally, we're not even doing that now, according to interviews with ventilator manufacturers. Add in Gove saying yesterday that we haven't got tests because there's a shortage of the chemicals needed but both BBC News and Robert Peston have spoken to Chemical Industries Association (trade body for manufacturers of chemicals) who have said that's not the case, there are plenty of the chemicals needed for reagents but they haven't been approached for them

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1245046542974750720

Fiddling while Rome burns.

[RobertT]

It is not inconceivable that the UK and USA could see more deaths than Italy - you need to look back about 3-4 weeks and see how the reaction differed for starters.  The USA doesn't even have a full lock down in place in most regions.  Italy certainly seemed unique, but Spain is now following - the easiest way to transmit is be in contact with others, that wasn't really prevented.  You rely a bit on luck when you don't reduce contact - like the age differential between Italy and other places.

Another thing of note - while the number of deaths is clearly the single most important thing (unless you are Devin Nunes, a member of Congress over here), the number of people needing Ventilator support is also worth keeping an eye on.  A significant % of those people are surviving but with long term health issues likely due to scarring in the lungs.  Covid-19 may not get them, but it may open the door for other issues years down the line.

The whole sorry saga has certainly shown the World is not prepared for this.  Nobody is using a play sheet here, everyone has take it re actively and tried to learn from the previous country to get something wrong.  I don't know if you can prepare properly, but there are a bunch of lessons to be learned about preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.  We've sleepwalked into preparing for the best.

[pauld]

Nobody is using a play sheet here, everyone has take it re actively and tried to learn from the previous country to get something wrong.  I don't know if you can prepare properly, but there are a bunch of lessons to be learned about preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.  We've sleepwalked into preparing for the best.

South Korea and Hong Kong (and possibly other Far East countries) both used lessons learned from SARS etc to prepare plans for another such outbreak that they have successfully put into practice to deal with this. They have learned the lessons from previous outbreaks and applied them, we and seemingly most other Western nations had the information from their experience available but failed to prepare for it. As you say, we have sleepwalked into this.

[RobertT]

I think even those locations have made some miss steps, even though they were better prepared after fucking up a bit with SARS (SK noted that moving people around hospitals and not contact tracing caused problems last time).  Both have had increases after that initial headwind was dealt with - not allowing for the influx of people who may carry it.

It seems really odd to me, even allowing for a margin of error with China's reporting likely being massively under if anything, that people seemed to take an age to get to a point of realising it spreads easily!  What did they thing 80k plus in China were doing, passing it on on purpose?  As soon as you had a case you HAD to assume it was spreading.

[pauld]

I think even those locations have made some miss steps, even though they were better prepared after fucking up a bit with SARS (SK noted that moving people around hospitals and not contact tracing caused problems last time).  Both have had increases after that initial headwind was dealt with - not allowing for the influx of people who may carry it.

Yes and it remains to be seen how they pan out long term once they start to ease restrictions. Clearly this is not the same as SARS but my point was, as you acknowledge tbf, that lessons were there to be learned. SK and HK did so, we didn't.

It seems really odd to me, even allowing for a margin of error with China's reporting likely being massively under if anything, that people seemed to take an age to get to a point of realising it spreads easily!  What did they thing 80k plus in China were doing, passing it on on purpose?  As soon as you had a case you HAD to assume it was spreading.

Quite so.

[pauld]

On a more positive note, it does look like they've started to ramp up the number of ventilators in the pipeline - 61,000 on order apparently. How long that pipeline is and how long they take to arrive will be crucial of course, but it is a positive step

[Ardiles]

On a more positive note, it does look like they've started to ramp up the number of ventilators in the pipeline - 61,000 on order apparently. How long that pipeline is and how long they take to arrive will be crucial of course, but it is a positive step

There do now seem to be some encouraging signs.  This and (as you mentioned before) the Nightingale temporary hospitals, in particular.  But I'm left with an abiding feeling that we started this work far too late.

We should have been preparing in earnest for this in February, but the PM was on holiday for half of the month.  His eye was not on the ball.  It was also immediately after 'Brexit Day', a day that Brexit supporters and the government, in particular, had been working towards for over 3 years.  That was where all of their energy was focused.  They were knackered, and had no time or energy left for this.  Yet another 'Brexit dividend'.

And as for the 'chemical shortages' excuse to explain the lack of testing, they might well be right.  Resources are finite and it's entirely possible that South Korea, Germany & others simply got there before we did...hence the shortages.

I have been impressed with some of the actions taken subsequently - particularly the financial measures taken by Rishi Sunak.  But when the inquests take place, as they will, I will be very interested to follow the explanations given for the early stage lack of testing and inadequate provision of PPE for medical staff.

[RobertT]

Maybe we just could all have taken Turkmenistan's approach - It's not happening!  They've banned the use of the word and any reporting on it, and have zero cases, despite bordering Iran.  We simply had to to tell it to go away.

[pauld]

And as for the 'chemical shortages' excuse to explain the lack of testing, they might well be right.  Resources are finite and it's entirely possible that South Korea, Germany & others simply got there before we did...hence the shortages.

Not according to the Chemical Industries Association who were baffled by this excuse. Given it was Gove proferring said excuse, that's as close to a guarantee he was lying as you can get.

[REDBUCK]

Anecdotally, we're not even doing that now, according to interviews with ventilator manufacturers. Add in Gove saying yesterday that we haven't got tests because there's a shortage of the chemicals needed but both BBC News and Robert Peston have spoken to Chemical Industries Association (trade body for manufacturers of chemicals) who have said that's not the case, there are plenty of the chemicals needed for reagents but they haven't been approached for them

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1245046542974750720

Fiddling while Rome burns.

What i don't get is why do they have to be asked, why can't they be proactive, they must know it's needed.

[Sippo]

Just got back from Asda. Wasn’t too bad an experience but people still don’t understand distancing. Coughing over fresh produce. A couple couldn’t keep their hands off each other... Asda have added arrows for people to follow but most can’t seem to fathom that. One security guard explained to a woman and she still understand the reasoning behind it.

Most stuff in stock, but fresh meat, fruit and veg do not have long dates on. No bin bags. Little or no pasta. Running out of condiments.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey]

New restriction for us introduced. Only 1 person per car. Exception being 1 parent with child.

[Batch]

I thought you didn't have any cases?

[Mother Brown]

Just got back from Asda. Wasn’t too bad an experience but people still don’t understand distancing. Coughing over fresh produce. A couple couldn’t keep their hands off each other... Asda have added arrows for people to follow but most can’t seem to fathom that. One security guard explained to a woman and she still understand the reasoning behind it.

Most stuff in stock, but fresh meat, fruit and veg do not have long dates on. No bin bags. Little or no pasta. Running out of condiments.

Long dates
I thought you could only get them at Xmas

[The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey]

I thought you didn't have any cases?

It’s obviously a Greek mandate for the entire country. Can’t really expect to have exceptions for bits of the country.