Coronavirus

[RedRag]

Watched Bill Maher interview Dan Crenshaw, a pretty articulate Republican who made some good points that Bill struggled with.  However, one of the points was fundamental to the issue with a lot of the Wests initial response, and articulates everything that is shown to be wrong by that article as well.

When responding to criticism of Trumps slow response he focussed on shutting off travel from China, which was fair enough, but then claimed that February was spent busily analysing data and trying to determine what course of action to take.  Which describes the exact process being outlined here as well.  That is where it went wrong.  He asked what would expect a country to do when only 100 cases are being reported, shut the country down?

Yes.  That is the point.  South Korea had recently had a test run, where they got it wrong.  They reviewed their actions and determined a stronger more immediate response was needed.  I believe they actually took the UK Pandemic plan and used that as the basis for their response to Covid.  As soon as they heard China had an outbreak of a respiratory virus, they assumed it would spread to them.  They enacted the Plan working on the assumption it would spread easily, rapidly bringing testing to production, contact tracing (an extreme version that traced credit card purchases not just relying on  people’s memory of where they had been and when, among other invasive efforts)  and treated it like a worst case scenario.  Now, they may still have to be more extreme and lockdown at some point because we do not have a vaccine, but they pretty clearly had a plan and followed it.  The same plan we all had and ignored it.  A plan that was devised after a real life test run.

Crenshaw response is the problem.  Govt. had forgotten to prepare and was playing it by ear, trying to figure it out rather than, yes, over reacting straight away.

I'm a big admirer of the lack of meandering tub thumping and point scoring shown by the German Chancellor.  A scientist.  The Germans and the Koreans saw the value of testing and tracing early in February.  Just while, Dr Jennie Taylor our Deputy Chief Medical Officer was suggesting it was not especially important and we were fumbling about with our herd immunity ideas.

TBF I expect mistakes in a novel Pandemic crisis to be made and would think none the worse of those at the forefront in doing their best.  I don't believe that secrecy actually ever led to great scientific outcomes even if treating the electorate as undeserving of honesty may have won the odd vote.

My specific objections are the refusal to identify the membership of SAGE and the refusal to disclose minutes of its meetings related to the Pandemic until it is all over.  

[Jimmy HaveHave]

I'm going to stop listening to these daily briefings.  Questions never answered directly.  No reassurances given.  No one in charge.  Rudderless.  Seriously, what's the point?  Who actually thought sending Gavin Williamson out to say precisely nothing was a good idea?  The lack of planning/preparation for this is unforgivable.

Shower of bastards, the lot of them.

Well said and Gavin Williamson comes across even worse than Seb Coe!

[theakston2k]

Nearly 6000 new cases in hospital reported today. This partial lockdown is not working.

Well it is has as it’s bought us time to get our house in order which is what the lockdown was all about, not stopping it. I dread to see some people’s reaction late next month when we start to relax it, I’m sure they there will be plenty claiming the government is prioritising the economy over lives despite the 2 being very intertwined. Realistically people have bought into it by and large but so going any further is likely to be counterproductive.  Give it another month and people’s patience will start wearing thin anyway and people will start getting restless. From a selfish point of view by that point I’d be happy to chance it and start getting back to some kind of normality as being locked down for more than 2 months will lead to many more health issues. If stricter measures are then required to be implemented at a later date then that’s a bridge we will cross then.

[Mother Brown]

That 90 ton of ppe that was due for delivery today from Turkey.
Was it being shipped overland or airfreight?
Don't get me started

[Batch]

That 90 ton of ppe that was due for delivery today from Turkey.
Was it being shipped overland or airfreight?
Don't get me started

Yodel

[Banker]

actually it is to an extent, or we'd have massively more than that.

Of course, it's being generally well-observed. But after nearly a month of this partial lockdown, and allowing for average time from infection to hospitalisation, only Russia is reporting a greater number of new cases today. Suggests to me our version of a lockdown is not keeping a tight enough lid on spread. Can only see it getting worse, sadly.

[suttonred]

Yodel

If it was yodel have they checked the bins or the back garden at no 10 yet?

[@mwooly63]

That 90 ton of ppe that was due for delivery today from Turkey.
Was it being shipped overland or airfreight?
Don't get me started

Air freight

https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1251420198286090240?s=09

[Mother Brown]

Yodel

Thank frec for that
It could have been Waberers or Stobarts

[Banker]

Well it is has as it’s bought us time to get our house in order which is what the lockdown was all about, not stopping it.

Our house is nowhere near being in order. The under-resourced NHS will need a break at some stage, and that'll only happen if significantly fewer than 6000 new cases go to hospital each day. Yet, people are calling for a loosening of the lockdown, rather than tightening it, jeez.

[theakston2k]

Our house is nowhere near being in order. The under-resourced NHS will need a break at some stage, and that'll only happen if significantly fewer than 6000 new cases go to hospital each day. Yet, people are calling for a loosening of the lockdown, rather than tightening it, jeez.

In a months time it’ll be about as good as it gets, you can’t expect people to live under all of the current measures any longer than that, it just isn’t realistic.

[Batch]

you have to be bloody careful not to trigger a significant second wave though. So relaxation of lockdown will have to be very carefully done .

it's inevitable local outbreaks will bubble up whatever you do. that's when contact tracing and isolation is massively important.

I think we are fairly locked down until they can manage that properly

[theakston2k]

you have to be bloody careful not to trigger a significant second wave though. So relaxation of lockdown will have to be very carefully done .

it's inevitable local outbreaks will bubble up whatever you do. that's when contact tracing and isolation is massively important.

I think we are fairly locked down until they can manage that properly

Exactly that, but I can only see that there will be a relaxation of some measures come the end of next month. Ultimately we need some industry and businesses to restart to pay for public services such as the NHS.

[Bogus Dave]

You still can’t really read too much into new cases, because new cases equals test, and the resource capability of testing is severely limited and won’t give an accurate picture of those ill now, and isn’t comparative to numbers even a few weeks ago

Deaths are pretty much the only published statistic that has any slight merit imo

[Pax Romana]

Well here's a novelty.  Piers Morgan talking a lot of sense on an interview with CNN on Youtube, from today I think.

Critical of Boris, damning of Trump but pushing the point that not too late to change/adjust.

Title is "Piers Morgan's stunning advice for his friend Donald Trump" if anyone interested.