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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 1188477 times)
horlock07

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« Reply #375 on: Thursday, March 12, 2020, 17:20:14 »

Medical Bod looks worrying like Failing Grayling!
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Flashheart

« Reply #376 on: Thursday, March 12, 2020, 17:22:48 »

Africa appears to be relatively spared for now, although I supposed the real figures could be far higher than reported. Something like this could be devastating there.
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RobertT

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« Reply #377 on: Thursday, March 12, 2020, 17:24:41 »

They've been saying 40-70% for a while, as the rate of infection.  The known cases double after something like 5 days, and what we are starting to see is that in certain conditions is spreads with a very high rate of infection from person to person.

We have two early case studies to use - China & Italy.  One of them appears to have stunted the spread by locking everyone up (still can;t be certain) and the other is being crippled by throwing arms up in the air at the nasty Coronavirus.
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Bogus Dave
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« Reply #378 on: Thursday, March 12, 2020, 17:41:11 »

yeah.

The whole thing seems to have made very good points. Assuming they are right.

Didn’t see the press conference, but credit where it’s due the government seem to be acting sensibly in handling all of this.
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BambooToTheFuture

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« Reply #379 on: Thursday, March 12, 2020, 17:52:47 »

Africa appears to be relatively spared for now, although I supposed the real figures could be far higher than reported. Something like this could be devastating there.

I would say the reason it hasn't so much is temperature related. It doesn't like anything too warm an also by accounts doesn't like extreme cold either. Loves that kind of temperate fridgy temp of around 6 to 12 celsius.
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'Incessant Nonsense'

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RobertT

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« Reply #380 on: Thursday, March 12, 2020, 18:18:13 »

I would say the reason it hasn't so much is temperature related. It doesn't like anything too warm an also by accounts doesn't like extreme cold either. Loves that kind of temperate fridgy temp of around 6 to 12 celsius.

More likely travel.

There is a chance the virus doesn't carry as well in Hot and Humid air, but that won't kill it off.

The issue with this strain appears to be the longevity on surfaces.
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Batch
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« Reply #381 on: Thursday, March 12, 2020, 18:22:25 »

the BBC r5 expert suggested that it only lives 1 day on cardboard, much less on other surfaces.

Also pointed out that living that long doesn't mean at a threshold that can be infectious
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tans
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« Reply #382 on: Thursday, March 12, 2020, 18:47:54 »

All EFL games ON this weekend with no restrictions
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RobertT

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« Reply #383 on: Thursday, March 12, 2020, 19:18:27 »

the BBC r5 expert suggested that it only lives 1 day on cardboard, much less on other surfaces.

Also pointed out that living that long doesn't mean at a threshold that can be infectious

Think it was 2 days + on steel and plastic though.  4 hours on Copper.
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BambooToTheFuture

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« Reply #384 on: Thursday, March 12, 2020, 19:31:30 »

More likely travel.

There is a chance the virus doesn't carry as well in Hot and Humid air, but that won't kill it off.

The issue with this strain appears to be the longevity on surfaces.

I was going to mention travel as of course, a lot of African countries don't have the disposable to travel as often. So factor in. The temperature thing is important though. A weakened pathogen (and as I'm aware this doesn't travel too far as an airborne pathogen; only up to 7ft/2m). The longevity on surfaces is a big debate. In controlled refrigerated conditions it's been claimed to "survive" for upto 9 days, yet in reality how many homes or locations are at a constant controlled temp of say 6c? But that data doesn't say on what surface, how porous or non porous etc. I believe that data is a scenario that would never bee seen in regular day to day life (unless you work in a fridge for 9 days without leaving?!). So then it depends on the surface. Most reports say several hours to 3days. But again all this depends on temp/humidity/surface etc.

Warmer weather would weaken it, no doubt. It's essentially a version of Flu, just without the vaccine (yet) so it will dissipate as warmer weather ensues. I'm sure you're measured and intelligent enough Rob to realise that a pathogen "surviving" doesn't necessarily mean it maintains the same level of that, if it has been weakened.

It's a dangerous buggar but I still believe this will be all but gone by around end of May/early June. That's only my opinion though.
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'Incessant Nonsense'

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'I'm gonna tell you the secret.
There's a threat, you end it and you don't feel ashamed about enjoying it.
You smell the gunpowder and you see the blood, you know what that means?
It means you're alive. You've won.
You take the heads so that you don't ever forget.'
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« Reply #385 on: Thursday, March 12, 2020, 19:35:14 »

@rob so it does, he didn't mention that
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RobertT

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« Reply #386 on: Thursday, March 12, 2020, 20:19:53 »

I was going to mention travel as of course, a lot of African countries don't have the disposable to travel as often. So factor in. The temperature thing is important though. A weakened pathogen (and as I'm aware this doesn't travel too far as an airborne pathogen; only up to 7ft/2m). The longevity on surfaces is a big debate. In controlled refrigerated conditions it's been claimed to "survive" for upto 9 days, yet in reality how many homes or locations are at a constant controlled temp of say 6c? But that data doesn't say on what surface, how porous or non porous etc. I believe that data is a scenario that would never bee seen in regular day to day life (unless you work in a fridge for 9 days without leaving?!). So then it depends on the surface. Most reports say several hours to 3days. But again all this depends on temp/humidity/surface etc.

Warmer weather would weaken it, no doubt. It's essentially a version of Flu, just without the vaccine (yet) so it will dissipate as warmer weather ensues. I'm sure you're measured and intelligent enough Rob to realise that a pathogen "surviving" doesn't necessarily mean it maintains the same level of that, if it has been weakened.

It's a dangerous buggar but I still believe this will be all but gone by around end of May/early June. That's only my opinion though.

I have no knowledge on what may happen in warmer months that would add anything to the discussion.  What seems very likely though is that the Western world will struggle to contain this in the way China were eventually able to.  So, even if it does dissipate in the summer, at the current rate of infection, that could still be a massive impact in countries like the USA (which still isn't really testing anyone, let alone preventing the spread - although private business & organisations appear spooked enough to do stuff without being told now).
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Pete

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« Reply #387 on: Thursday, March 12, 2020, 20:52:01 »

Cobra meeting expected outcome: status expected to move from "containment" to "delay". If situation worsens, it may be escalated to "faffing" and once the bodies are piling up in the streets, we could possibly escalate still further to "fiddling while Rome burns"

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Pax Romana

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« Reply #388 on: Thursday, March 12, 2020, 21:32:15 »

"Herd immunity" = let the weak die, the survivors will be stronger for it.

Herd immunity is not a callous "let the weak die" concept.  It protects the weak.

I may be wrong but if you can say that then I very much doubt that you have had to watch a daughter grow up who is unable to take various vaccines, who is exponentially more vulnerable to the diseases they protect against and is entirely dependent on herd immunity to protect her from them.
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Pax Romana

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« Reply #389 on: Thursday, March 12, 2020, 21:33:42 »

As soon as I posted that I thought I was rather shitty.  Sorry, touched a nerve.
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