Coronavirus

[Batch]

Because unless those people isolate themselves until the disease is eradicated they still operate as vectors of transmission and so mean it takes longer to eradicate (or contain to minimal extent) the disease.

Assuming the vaccine stops transmission, rather than just protect those that have had it.

[pauld]

Assuming the vaccine stops transmission, rather than just protect those that have had it.

Sure and I understand that might be quite a big assumption. My point was that people can't just think of what suits them as an individual (as opposed to genuine medical issues etc) in defeating this disease, it has to be a collective effort

[horlock07]

Assuming the vaccine stops transmission, rather than just protect those that have had it.

Pretty sure it doesn't, I know my mates big concern is that whilst you can't get it you can spread it so if everyone who is vaxed immediately returns to normal we could have a god awful spike.

[Ardiles]

My (hopefully correct) understanding is that vaccination programmes are generally successful at halting transmission so long as a critical % of the population is immunised.  The herd immunity effect.  So if, for example, 80% of the population is immunised, it may be enough to break the chain of transmission.  So as long as the number of Luddites/anti-vaxxers/conspiracy wonks is not too high, it should be OK for everyone.  (I think.)

[pauld]

Pretty sure it doesn't, I know my mates big concern is that whilst you can't get it you can spread it so if everyone who is vaxed immediately returns to normal we could have a god awful spike.

Listening to the radio this morning, they interviewed a scientist who works in this field (sorry can't remember his name or exact specialism) and he said they don't know yet whether the Pfizer vaccine will prevent spreading and they won't know until it's been widely deployed. Which seems a bit odd really, why can't they test for that while they're doing the trials? The trials have apparently included 50,000 people, surely they can test some of those people to see if they are still transmitting the disease? I mean, I'm sure they've thought of that and there's a good reason why they can't or it won't work etc, I'm just curious as to what it might be.

[pauld]

My (hopefully correct) understanding is that vaccination programmes are generally successful at halting transmission so long as a critical % of the population is immunised.  The herd immunity effect.  So if, for example, 80% of the population is immunised, it may be enough to break the chain of transmission.  So as long as the number of Luddites/anti-vaxxers/conspiracy wonks is not too high, it should be OK for everyone.  (I think.)

Yup, but I think horlock's point is that in the early stages there isn't going to be enough vaccine to achieve herd immunity, so if the few that have been vaccinated can still transmit the disease and behave as if they can't then we have a problem

[michael]

I saw a report yesterday that a Russian vaccine, Sputnik V, is ready to go to. It is 92% effective.

[pauld]

I saw a report yesterday that a Russian vaccine, Sputnik V, is ready to go to. It is 92% effective.

Saw that too, slightly concerned (on the basis of fuck all it must be said) that it may not actually be ready/fully tested but that Putin's ordered the announcement brought forward as a response to the Pfizer announcement out of petty nationalism. Yes he is more than capable of that.

Talking of Putin's assets, Independent reporting that Trump's election night party is looking like another super-spreader event, with 5 attendees already testing positive.

[horlock07]

Yup, but I think horlock's point is that in the early stages there isn't going to be enough vaccine to achieve herd immunity, so if the few that have been vaccinated can still transmit the disease and behave as if they can't then we have a problem

Quite, as noted the vaccine needs to be stored at -70c, now whilst that is not as extreme as it sounds (apparently) as its roughly the temperature of dry ice and thus theoretically can be stored for c.24 hours if the vials are packed in dry ice, its still presents something of a logistical challenge to get it out there, add to that I have read that the manufacturing facility our vaccine is likely to come from is in Belgium getting the stuff into the Country come January is possibly going to be the greater challenge than vaccinating people.

Thus there is going to be a prolonged period when some of the population is vaxxed and some are not, if those who are vaxxed decide to just sack it off and go back to life (and I suspect the government will be very vague in their messaging as they are desperate to claim we are 'back to normal') there is the potential for those vaxxed to be carrying the virus and spreading it to those who are not.

[horlock07]

So studies found its partially to blame for the spike, I know lets do it again!

[Flashheart]

I used to think he was OK.

An oasis of decency and competency within the Tory party.

Alas, he's turning out to be just like the rest of them.

[Hunk]

As an effort to get people spending I've got no problem with the idea. It'll all depend on when it comes in and how far down the road with vaccinations we are. If its brought in as soon as this lockdown ends it's an obviously stupid idea.

[horlock07]

I used to think he was OK.

An oasis of decency and competency within the Tory party.

Alas, he's turning out to be just like the rest of them.

Pretty sure he is going to be PM in the next 6-12 months though.

[Berniman]

As an effort to get people spending I've got no problem with the idea. It'll all depend on when it comes in and how far down the road with vaccinations we are. If its brought in as soon as this lockdown ends it's an obviously stupid idea.

They won't do it over the Christmas period, doesn't make any sense to.  It will likely be mid January or February when hopefully there are a few vaccinated out there.  As I work in the Hospitality software industry, I can vouch that anything to help will be very much welcomed by an industry that has been dragged through the crap through all of this..

[pauld]

Pretty sure he is going to be PM in the next 6-12 months though.

Given the lack of talent elsewhere on the Tory front benches, there really aren't that many candidates when they finally give Johnson the push.