Coronavirus

[Berniman]

Americans are bonkers.  As I work for a US corporation I have to deal with them everyday..   Having moved to the US and lived there for a while, it reinforces my decision to come back and in hindsight i am glad I am living here during this period rather than there, no matter how much of a shit show the UK have put on during this pandemic. 

[Flashheart]

If that's true then of course that is concerning but to me, these sentances are a bit concerning as to the potential accuracy of the piece;

'Here, it ""SEEMS"" that PHE regularly looks for people on the NHS database who have ever tested positive, and simply checks to see if they are still alive or not. PHE does not appear to consider how long ago the COVID test result was, nor whether the person has been successfully treated in hospital and discharged to the community. Anyone who has tested COVID positive but subsequently died at a later date of any cause will be included on the PHE COVID death figures.'

Disclaimer:  the article has not been peer-reviewed; it should not replace individual clinical judgement, and the sources cited should be checked. The views expressed in this commentary represent the views of the authors and not necessarily those of the host institution, the NHS, the NIHR, or the Department of Health and Social Care. The views are not a substitute

Putting that aside, and even assuming the article is accurate.

It still does not mean the figures are not at least reasonably accurate.

[pauld]

Don't bother looking at deaths now as it will never be zero in England.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/why-no-one-can-ever-recover-from-covid-19-in-england-a-statistical-anomaly/

"Anyone who has tested COVID positive but subsequently died at a later date of any cause will be included on the PHE COVID death figures."

It's OK. Partial, inhomogeneous and basically inadequate data from various sources is fine if it facilitates a pop or two at the government from those who didn't vote for it and/or don't want it.

Which is why I've consistently argued that excess deaths is the figure to look at: 65,000. By any measure, the government's handling of COVID has been catastrophic.

[Bob's Orange]

Putting that aside, and even assuming the article is accurate.

It still does not mean the figures are not at least reasonably accurate.

yes quite.

[Bob's Orange]

Americans are bonkers.  As I work for a US corporation I have to deal with them everyday..   Having moved to the US and lived there for a while, it reinforces my decision to come back and in hindsight i am glad I am living here during this period rather than there, no matter how much of a shit show the UK have put on during this pandemic. 

One of the reasons that I don't go on Facebook much anymore is that my mother and step-father live in Panama City in Florida and for whatever reason appear to be staunch Trump supporters, sharing ridiculous memes and weirdly have become obsessed with abortion and the comparison between aborted deaths v Covid deaths.

I know blood is thicker than water etc, but some of the crap they believe is embarrassing.

[Panda Paws]

Which is why I've consistently argued that excess deaths is the figure to look at: 65,000. By any measure, the government's handling of COVID has been catastrophic.

Absolutely. And they also show that we're thankfully coming to the end of it (for now).

[Berniman]

One of the reasons that I don't go on Facebook much anymore is that my mother and step-father live in Panama City in Florida and for whatever reason appear to be staunch Trump supporters, sharing ridiculous memes and weirdly have become obsessed with abortion and the comparison between aborted deaths v Covid deaths.

I know blood is thicker than water etc, but some of the crap they believe is embarrassing.

Ha, this is very similar for me.  All of a sudden my dad is posting lots of "all live matter" posts which wind me up big time - not the fact that he has differing views to me, but more that he doesn't get how posting certain things makes him look on Social Media - His generation does not understand how Social Media works so it's not his fault, but no matter how many times i try to educate him on who can see his posts, why he shouldn't share random stuff that people he doesn't know post and the fact that propaganda bots exist and he doesn't get what they are, he still does it..

It has made me realise that although in most cases it is a generational thing, I didn't realise what strong views my parents have - which is probably a nod to their parenting skills as they never pushed their views on to me.

[pauld]

Absolutely. And they also show that we're thankfully coming to the end of it (for now).

Well this phase of it, yes. Which is extremely welcome. They also show some interesting side-effects too - the excess death figures are now below what would be expected for this time of year. It would be interesting to see some study done of why that is. There's some obvious ones - less traffic on the roads, so fewer road deaths; less people in pubs, does that play in? I suspect not, as I don't think people dying from pub fights/binge drinking is a huge factor (and the anecdotal evidence seems to be that people are drinking as much if not more at home anyway). Alcohol-related accidents maybe? Again, wouldn't have thought the one specific to making your way home pissed (as opposed to being at home pissed) would add hugely to the overall count. Maybe fewer heart attacks if people are less stressed due to working from home. Wouldn't have thought so, as for every person who's less stressed by WFH, I bet there's plenty who are more stressed due to worrying about jobs, money or just pissed off at the restricttions etc. It can't all be road-traffic deaths, surely?

[Simon Pieman]

Well this phase of it, yes. Which is extremely welcome. They also show some interesting side-effects too - the excess death figures are now below what would be expected for this time of year. It would be interesting to see some study done of why that is. There's some obvious ones - less traffic on the roads, so fewer road deaths; less people in pubs, does that play in? I suspect not, as I don't think people dying from pub fights/binge drinking is a huge factor (and the anecdotal evidence seems to be that people are drinking as much if not more at home anyway). Alcohol-related accidents maybe? Again, wouldn't have thought the one specific to making your way home pissed (as opposed to being at home pissed) would add hugely to the overall count. Maybe fewer heart attacks if people are less stressed due to working from home. Wouldn't have thought so, as for every person who's less stressed by WFH, I bet there's plenty who are more stressed due to worrying about jobs, money or just pissed off at the restricttions etc. It can't all be road-traffic deaths, surely?

Perhaps the some people who died during the spell where deaths exceeded the usual levels would have more likely died later in the year were it not for the pandemic?

[Panda Paws]

Well this phase of it, yes. Which is extremely welcome. They also show some interesting side-effects too - the excess death figures are now below what would be expected for this time of year. It would be interesting to see some study done of why that is. There's some obvious ones - less traffic on the roads, so fewer road deaths; less people in pubs, does that play in? I suspect not, as I don't think people dying from pub fights/binge drinking is a huge factor (and the anecdotal evidence seems to be that people are drinking as much if not more at home anyway). Alcohol-related accidents maybe? Again, wouldn't have thought the one specific to making your way home pissed (as opposed to being at home pissed) would add hugely to the overall count. Maybe fewer heart attacks if people are less stressed due to working from home. Wouldn't have thought so, as for every person who's less stressed by WFH, I bet there's plenty who are more stressed due to worrying about jobs, money or just pissed off at the restricttions etc. It can't all be road-traffic deaths, surely?

Something we won't understand for a long time I'd guess.

The other thing to consider in the long-term is excess deaths as a result of the public's response to COVID rather than the illness itself. For example, April and May saw record lows in terms of cancer diagnoses, which could feasibly add to excess deaths in the months and years to come.

Ultimately, the whole thing has been fucking brutal and no one should be judged for their feelings or opinions on it, unless you're at the extreme end of idiocy (antivaxxers etc). Or American.

Hopefully we can continue to take small, sensible steps toward normality. Thankfully, a second wave of the same magnitude will never happen, because of the infrastructure and public knowledge we've acquired.

[horlock07]

Perhaps the some people who died during the spell where deaths exceeded the usual levels would have more likely died later in the year were it not for the pandemic?

Exactly, especially in care homes its brought certain deaths forward, its exactly the same each year with the flu seasons and heat waves! The key figures will be at year end to compare with other years.

[Bogus Dave]

You’re probably overthinking the excess deaths thing - it will be lower now because people who would normally die now (I.e. the old and sick) would likely have died in March/April/May when the huge spikes were in place

That’s not to say everyone who died of covid would have otherwise died, far from it, but it’s the most obvious reason for there being a small deficit in the excess deaths number in recent weeks

[pauld]

You’re probably overthinking the excess deaths thing - it will be lower now because people who would normally die now (I.e. the old and sick) would likely have died in March/April/May when the huge spikes were in place

That’s not to say everyone who died of covid would have otherwise died, far from it, but it’s the most obvious reason for there being a small deficit in the excess deaths number in recent weeks

That's a good shout tbf

[smalltowngypsymassacre]

Ha, this is very similar for me.  All of a sudden my dad is posting lots of "all live matter" posts which wind me up big time - not the fact that he has differing views to me, but more that he doesn't get how posting certain things makes him look on Social Media - His generation does not understand how Social Media works so it's not his fault, but no matter how many times i try to educate him on who can see his posts, why he shouldn't share random stuff that people he doesn't know post and the fact that propaganda bots exist and he doesn't get what they are, he still does it..

It has made me realise that although in most cases it is a generational thing, I didn't realise what strong views my parents have - which is probably a nod to their parenting skills as they never pushed their views on to me.

My inlaws (I'm not married to their daughter anymore so I'm not sure if that should be former inlaws) are evangelical preachers in Georgia, deep bible belt territory. They are pretty sure that all gays go to hell and are, quite naturally it would seem, staunch Trump supporters, and loathed Obama. Yet despite their many intolerable points of view they are at heart very decent people, as contradictory as that may seem. They don't put inflammatory views on Facebook despite being well versed in social media with a very prominent online presence. I still speak to them a few times a year and they very much welcome conversation with people who disagree with them, which really does fly in the face of the usual caricature. It can be a bit confusing sometimes.

[horlock07]

The cynic in me often looks at what people are doing rather than saying....

So conferences will apparently be OK from October - great, yet at the same time the government have cancelled their party conference for October and are doing it virtually?