Coronavirus

[horlock07]

Sorry, that's really shit. My apologies

Dont worry about it, that's life.

[BambooToTheFuture]

Think you're all right as long as you stop for a wazz

Don't forget to verify that your eyesight is much better suddenly, even if not an optometrist. Once you've done so, feel free to continue on with your burglary, as no charges will be forthcoming. Oh and make sure you do it on your wife/partner birthday and do ensure you keep your kid/pet/friend locked in a car for a good 4hrs. That way you can ensure you follow the guidelines/rules/shitshow exactly to the letter. Oh last one...don't forget to get the Attorney General's backing, even if it compromises his role. Have contempt for everything 

[Richie Wellen-Dowd]

I think this is an important and overlooked point.

I would have thought India would have been decimated. They’ve actually faired comparatively well.
It shows scientists still don’t know many things about this virus. All govts need to have the humility to admit we’re all still learning and should be prepared to admit mistakes and improve.

I know I've ranted about this before but it amazes me that there's virtually no reporting of this. I guess it comes down to our need for understanding, and so anything that can't be assigned a cause(even if that causation is incorrect) is ignored. There is a certain bias in reporting too, for example New Zealand getting all the plaudits because everyone loves Ardern, while Australia is mostly ignored due to the conservative, climate change denying Morrison.

Vietnam has been lauded recently in the media too, whereas my country of obsession Cambodia(because I know it so well and because it's the biggest anomaly I'm aware of) doesn't get a mention. They've still had zero recorded deaths despite refusing to take it seriously for months, refusing to stop the Chinese coming in for two and a half months, letting a cruise ship that no one else would have dock and let the passengers roam the capital, no lockdown, monasteries open on new year(the equivalent of churches open for easter) etc. etc. etc. It makes no sense and so it seems the reaction is to pretend it isn't happening.

[RobertT]

I'd well imagine there are plenty of expert data nuts out there working on those very questions - what are the patterns, what are the variations?

There have been some snippets starting to appear where specific studies have looked into isolated events and tried to track their evolution to see what created the right environment for spread, or stopped it etc.  That will be really quite important in the coming months because you want some Eureka moments - say for example we find out that Air Con is a major contributor in confined spaces, where it is circulating a broadly contained air source, recycling the droplets over and over again.  Logic suggests that is probably likely, so we can start to plan around that - open windows, avoid being in confined spaces with large groups, time inside a single location and so on.  How does Public Transport contribute to spread?

Brazil is an interesting one - is that Country showing that the Western world had the right conditions for a quick kick off, but where population density exists it will eventually grab you, just takes more time to spread?

[suttonred]

It's more seasonal than they know (or are letting on) We actually probably got lucky it only really got here in March. October will be key, until then get us all out in the summer and get a few more infected before the big one hits, is my thinking.

[Richie Wellen-Dowd]

I'd well imagine there are plenty of expert data nuts out there working on those very questions - what are the patterns, what are the variations?

There have been some snippets starting to appear where specific studies have looked into isolated events and tried to track their evolution to see what created the right environment for spread, or stopped it etc.  That will be really quite important in the coming months because you want some Eureka moments - say for example we find out that Air Con is a major contributor in confined spaces, where it is circulating a broadly contained air source, recycling the droplets over and over again.  Logic suggests that is probably likely, so we can start to plan around that - open windows, avoid being in confined spaces with large groups, time inside a single location and so on.  How does Public Transport contribute to spread?

Brazil is an interesting one - is that Country showing that the Western world had the right conditions for a quick kick off, but where population density exists it will eventually grab you, just takes more time to spread?

I'm sure it's being looked at, my surprise is that there's virtually no commentary on this. It's not as if commentators are shy to suggest reasons where it seems to fit nicely for a particular country or confirms their bias.

It's more seasonal than they know (or are letting on) We actually probably got lucky it only really got here in March. October will be key, until then get us all out in the summer and get a few more infected before the big one hits, is my thinking.

Agreed, temperature ticks a lot of the boxes for explaining the variations, although not all. It would partly explain Brazil spiking now as they come into winter, or the colder season at least depending on where you are in the country. It would be interesting to see the variations within such a big country as Brazil, although Rio and Sao Paolo in the South would probably skew things massively.

[suttonred]

I've a friend in Sao Paolo. He says it's ok at the moment, but cases growing.

[swindonmaniac]

It's more seasonal than they know (or are letting on) We actually probably got lucky it only really got here in March. October will be key, until then get us all out in the summer and get a few more infected before the big one hits, is my thinking.

Maybe I'm being thick or maybe I've missed something,  but why will October be the key ??.

[suttonred]

Warm weather goes.

[horlock07]

Oh well, yet another lie found out.... https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1266052940269326337?s=20

Protective ring, my arse!

[Peter Venkman]

Protective ring, my arse!

A ring protective ring, as it were.

[pauld]

I think this is an important and overlooked point.

I would have thought India would have been decimated. They’ve actually faired comparatively well.

Hmm, so far. Don't count your chickens there, it's ramping up on a similar trajectory as Russia (a bit like we had a month or so back) and there are now reports of hospitals in Mumbai starting to be overwhelmed. It started more slowly in India but it could be about to get very nasty there.

[pauld]

Agreed, temperature ticks a lot of the boxes for explaining the variations, although not all. It would partly explain Brazil spiking now as they come into winter, or the colder season at least depending on where you are in the country. It would be interesting to see the variations within such a big country as Brazil, although Rio and Sao Paolo in the South would probably skew things massively.

I think air pollution is also being looked at as a factor which might explain the differences between Cambodia and Vietnam. Does it? I know very little about either country but if Cambodia has comparatively fewer busy roads/heavy industry that might play a part? Won't be the whole story, obviously, these are complex systems.

[Richie Wellen-Dowd]

I think air pollution is also being looked at as a factor which might explain the differences between Cambodia and Vietnam. Does it? I know very little about either country but if Cambodia has comparatively fewer busy roads/heavy industry that might play a part? Won't be the whole story, obviously, these are complex systems.

Vietnam is much more populous and has more industry, but both countries have come out virtually unscathed. That was the point I was trying to make, that Vietnam's response gets praised for their low infection/deaths, whilst everyone ignores Cambodia because it got low infections and no deaths with a chaotic and very loose response.

[pauld]

Vietnam is much more populous and has more industry, but both countries have come out virtually unscathed. That was the point I was trying to make, that Vietnam's response gets praised for their low infection/deaths, whilst everyone ignores Cambodia because it got low infections and no deaths with a chaotic and very loose response.

Ah, sorry, I speed read and missed your actual point! My apologies. Although I think the point re air pollution still stands, clearly it's not the only factor but I suspect it will be significant.