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« Reply #4095 on: Thursday, May 28, 2020, 11:16:05 »


Hindsight is easy


How the fuck is it hindsight? People have been saying for months that lockdown should happen ASAP. Even before the death rate started to get serious people were being critical of events like Cheltenham.

It's not hindsight, it's the opposite of hindsight. It's foresight.

MANY people were right all along, and others want to try and dismiss that by accusing them of something that is demonstrably just not true.
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« Reply #4096 on: Thursday, May 28, 2020, 11:19:25 »

It’s only now we can say we should have locked down earlier with any sort of proof to back that up.

At the time it was all educated guess work, we haven’t had a situation like this before so no handbook existed on how to deal with it based on similar previous pandemics.

Hindsight is easy

We had the examples from China, S Korea and Singapore and counter examples from Spain and Italy. We watched what was happening in Italy with mounting horror for 3 weeks. We didn't need hindsight, we had the examples right in front of us.

"We were to slow to learn from other countries on handling MERS/SARS we didn't have enough test kits, contact tracers or PPE". That was Johnson, yesterday, admitting his failings to the Liaison Committee

At the time it was all educated guess work, we haven’t had a situation like this before so no handbook existed on how to deal with it based on similar previous pandemics.
That's not true. The previous pandemics of SARS, MERS etc provided precisely this prior example. There's a reason why countries in the Far East with experience of those pandemics clamped down hard and early. The lessons were there for us to learn and explicitly referenced in the govt's risk register containing the plan for dealing with a pandemic. But we failed to implement those lessons.
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bathford

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« Reply #4097 on: Thursday, May 28, 2020, 11:56:19 »

Similarly, the Bath Half marathon shouldn't have happened. OK, Government guidance was 'fluid' but the organisers weren't going to cancel their baby. They totally ignored pubic option. It was going ahead and screw public safety.
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Batch
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« Reply #4098 on: Thursday, May 28, 2020, 11:57:09 »

but the public could have boycotted either.
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« Reply #4099 on: Thursday, May 28, 2020, 11:57:14 »

It’s only now we can say we should have locked down earlier with any sort of proof to back that up.

At the time it was all educated guess work, we haven’t had a situation like this before so no handbook existed on how to deal with it based on similar previous pandemics.

Hindsight is easy


Its not hindsight, Cummings warned that exactly this would happen in a blog last year so he would have been prepared for it.
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« Reply #4100 on: Thursday, May 28, 2020, 11:57:30 »

soapy tit wank
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horlock07

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« Reply #4101 on: Thursday, May 28, 2020, 12:00:26 »

Similarly, the Bath Half marathon shouldn't have happened. OK, Government guidance was 'fluid' but the organisers weren't going to cancel their baby. They totally ignored pubic option. It was going ahead and screw public safety.

But I imagine, much as with many things at the start of the shitshow if they had cancelled when government guidance was that it could go ahead their interruption insurance would have been invalid so they would have lost a fortune.

It was blindingly clear at the start of this that the governments refusal to make any calls was to place the onus and the risk and the financial losses on business and the public rather than themselves or more pertinently their donors in the insurance business.
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Jimmy HaveHave

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« Reply #4102 on: Thursday, May 28, 2020, 12:03:13 »

Indeed, something we bafflingly failed to do.

The warning signs were there late Feb early March.we could all see what was happening in Italy & Spain the government should have acted then by closing all borders and staring lockdown earlier
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Nemo
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« Reply #4103 on: Thursday, May 28, 2020, 12:05:36 »

I see Durham police have failed to move on and stop politicising the story.
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« Reply #4104 on: Thursday, May 28, 2020, 12:45:11 »

 
I see Durham police have failed to move on and stop politicising the story.

 Cheesy
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« Reply #4105 on: Thursday, May 28, 2020, 12:53:30 »

I see Durham police have failed to move on and stop politicising the story.

The right wing ham lawyers are having an absolute field day with this on social media! Its putting the AG in sticky territory.
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« Reply #4106 on: Thursday, May 28, 2020, 12:53:56 »

Important to explain the use of the word "might" in Durham Police's statement.  It's the CPS who make charging decisions and a Court that determines someone's guilt.   So when the Police ever say "might" in relation to any suspect committing an alleged offence, they actually mean "we think he did" because they aren't the final arbiter.

They also say that had Cummings been stopped during his eye test jaunt, he would have been told to return to where he was staying.  Again, another clear indication that they believed he broke the law.  Not the guidelines, the law.

Only a Court can decide though and as Cummings isn't going to receive a fixed penalty or be prosecuted, we'll never know.
« Last Edit: Thursday, May 28, 2020, 12:58:32 by StfcRusty » Logged
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« Reply #4107 on: Thursday, May 28, 2020, 12:57:11 »

Interesting to read that the track and tracers were only informed at 10.30 last night that the system was going live at 8 this morning and many didn't/don't actually have login details to use it.

This on top of the comments of Baroness Harding, rather adds weight to the theory that it was rushed forward when not ready to deflect from Dom.
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« Reply #4108 on: Thursday, May 28, 2020, 13:05:14 »

It's Groundhog Day as the issue of what you get paid if you are told to stay home/not go to work (if you are indeed back) for 14days by the 'trackers' rears its' head again
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« Reply #4109 on: Thursday, May 28, 2020, 13:47:44 »

We had the examples from China, S Korea and Singapore and counter examples from Spain and Italy. We watched what was happening in Italy with mounting horror for 3 weeks. We didn't need hindsight, we had the examples right in front of us.

"We were to slow to learn from other countries on handling MERS/SARS we didn't have enough test kits, contact tracers or PPE". That was Johnson, yesterday, admitting his failings to the Liaison Committee
That's not true. The previous pandemics of SARS, MERS etc provided precisely this prior example. There's a reason why countries in the Far East with experience of those pandemics clamped down hard and early. The lessons were there for us to learn and explicitly referenced in the govt's risk register containing the plan for dealing with a pandemic. But we failed to implement those lessons.

I do think that getting stuck in the Hamster wheel of pointing fingers at the Government will, unfortunately, end-up with people becoming entrenched - I present exhibit A) The USA, where wearing a mask seems to have become a political statement, or otherwise.

What needs to happen is some very critical analysis of what works and what doesn't.

The Asian response, and Oceanic, is very different to what the Western World went with - is it better?  It looks like it has been.  As you mention, they learned that the hard way and acted on it - unfortunately, here is where I do think the WHO is a blunt tool - there needs to be far better International sharing and policy making.

An interesting learning that South Korea had from their most recent SARS or MERS (can't remember which) outbreak was the impact of moving and mixing patients.  China, whose numbers we can't really rely on, used field style hospitals to quarantine the sick but not hospitalised.  We've seen in the Western World that fantastic hospitals get overwhelmed, other patients avoid presenting with non virus related illnesses and forgo planned treatments.  There may be something to be said for treating patients of a virus, early on, in separation.  Maybe you identify core hospitals who would switch to a virus treatment centre, while others take No Patients, in the meantime, adding virus capacity with field hospitals and USING them first.

Contact Tracing is something else that seems to be important in managing an outbreak of a virus.  In fact, it's probably your only other option vs. letting it run it's course and going for Herd Immunity and hoping it just clears up on it's own before it gets that bad.  This requires a lot of hard thought and work for Western Countries - the privacy issues are real, but we need a well defined plan to enact in the future, when this does happen again.

PPE - I think the first two limit the need for this capacity - essentially we got ourselves into a position where we needed to cover for the worst case scenario.  Certainly stockpiles are an issue, Globally, as are supply chains.  Time to consider whether a Govt. funded, locally sourced option is a requirement of Pandemic planning.  You may pay for it for years without needing it, but by god is it important when you do need it and you find the world battling over one or two supply chains.

That's just for starters.
« Last Edit: Thursday, May 28, 2020, 14:09:32 by RobertT » Logged
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