Coronavirus

[Banker]

Are you implying some sort of conspiracy?

Implying it's far more widespread than total cases (11k) and the estimated current cases by the modellers (250k-500k) are suggesting.

That said, both HRH, PM (and Matt Hancock) meet plenty of folk, London hotspot etc etc.

[tans]

Hancock has it now

[Flashheart]

Implying it's far more widespread than total cases (11k) and the estimated current cases by the modellers (250k-500k) are suggesting.

That said, both HRH, PM (and Matt Hancock) meet plenty of folk, London hotspot etc etc.

Ah, that makes sense.

[RobertT]

It's entirely probable that more people have had it or do have it than tested numbers confirm, that's a given.  It's also likely the death toll is higher because previous deaths registered as Cardiac Failure and Pneumonia may well have been caused by the virus.   When you look at past Pandemics, a similar type of extrapolation is often used because the confirmed data is nearly always suspected to be an under reporting.

Somewhere like Italy is a good example - they've pretty much given up on being able to test everyone that should be, because the Healthcare system is breaking at the seems just to care for those ill enough to need treatment.  I think they believe you can multiply the confirmed cases by a factor of at least 10.

You also have incubation period to consider.  When you see somewhere like NYC registering thousands of positive cases a day now, that was from spread 10-14 days ago.  Again, you look at Italy and see the death rate per day in the many hundreds even after a couple of weeks of being in lockdown, same for Spain.

[Banker]

Yes, likely explains the 12 weeks isolation notice to the vulnerable, implemented before the lockdown measure (partial).

Infection > 2 weeks worst case incubation > 1 week worsening symptoms > 6 weeks worst case ventilator etc > 3 weeks margin for error.

Lockdown in Italy Mar 12th, Spain 16th March, anticipate the stats downturn hopefully within a week, or so ?

[Matchworn Shirts]

Apparently 190 more deaths.

[Flashheart]

I still people saying 'it's bullshit', or 'exaggerated' or whatever.

The planet's population could be decimated and there would still be people denying it.

[pauld]

Surprise, surprise, the lockdown's become a curtain-twitcher's delight:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-52052830

[pauld]

Apparently 190 more deaths.

181 according to the BBC. That's still quite some leap, we seem to be entering an Italian-style phase of exponential increases in both deaths and confirmed cases (2921 increase today)

[RobertT]

Given that anything resembling a lock down didn't occur until start of this week, you can expect the numbers to climb for about 16 days or so, at least.

[RobertT]

will be interesting to see the data from this, assuming they do go back and review once this begins to die down:

https://time.com/5809848/game-zero-soccer-game-italy/?iid=obnetwork

[Sippo]

Surprise, surprise, the lockdown's become a curtain-twitcher's delight:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-52052830

I go out twice day. Once at 6.30am just for a quick poo walk with the dog. Then we go out for longer in the day. I never see anyone that early.

[pauld]

I go out twice day. Once at 6.30am just for a quick poo walk with the dog. Then we go out for longer in the day. I never see anyone that early.

No problem with the number of times you go out, but think you should do your shitting in your own house, not out walking with the dog. Even if you don't see anyone #notnicehabit

[RobertT]

Especially if you don't want NinjaBen to dob you in or take you down with his Assassin moves.  He's the one with the phone torch on his head, easy to spot.

[Chunkyhair]

No problem with the number of times you go out, but think you should do your shitting in your own house, not out walking with the dog. Even if you don't see anyone #notnicehabit

I fucking laughed so much at this I nearly shat myself