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Author Topic: FA cup rd 1 - Cheltenham v Swindon pre match chat and matchday thread  (Read 8375 times)
Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #225 on: Sunday, November 10, 2019, 21:31:06 »

So...we may win, we may not...🤔

Nevertheless, I'll still carry on regarding chunkyhair's assertion that we'll batter them if we carrying playing like on Sat with some scepticism.  

Feel free to think otherwise.... as for Davis he might regard 8 replay defeats in 30 years as superstition but it has its place in football.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/nov/08/frank-lampard-chelsea-football
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Thingie


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« Reply #226 on: Sunday, November 10, 2019, 22:33:03 »

Quote from: pauld
Given that pretty much (I haven't checked but I'll lay odds) none of our team or theirs or our management or theirs were involved in any of those replays over the last 30 years, that's all irrelevant though, other than as a superstition.

by that logic, so is the whaddon road curse.

but its real Smiley
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Abrahammer


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« Reply #227 on: Sunday, November 10, 2019, 23:49:26 »

Wasn’t there some nonsense about the fact we hadn’t won at Scunny in our previous 217 visits, therefore we couldn’t possibly win on opening day?

Paul really needs to stop these logical posts
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bamboonoshop


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« Reply #228 on: Monday, November 11, 2019, 00:05:50 »

Paul might be using logic but he isn't using facts!
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pauld


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« Reply #229 on: Monday, November 11, 2019, 09:14:38 »

Nevertheless, I'll still carry on regarding chunkyhair's assertion that we'll batter them if we carrying playing like on Sat with some scepticism. 

Feel free to think otherwise.... as for Davis he might regard 8 replay defeats in 30 years as superstition but it has its place in football.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/nov/08/frank-lampard-chelsea-football
Please explain it then. Explain how a replay defeat from 30 years ago, or 5 years ago come to that, has any effect on a player who wasn't even at the club then. Using facts.
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4D


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« Reply #230 on: Monday, November 11, 2019, 09:16:32 »

 Sword Fight
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Flashheart


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« Reply #231 on: Monday, November 11, 2019, 09:17:30 »

Please explain it then. Explain how a replay defeat from 30 years ago, or 5 years ago come to that, has any effect on a player who wasn't even at the club then. Using facts.

... and science.
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I like it firm and fruity.
pauld


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« Reply #232 on: Monday, November 11, 2019, 09:45:46 »

... and science.
Oooh yes, some empirical science. That would be nice!
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Exiled Bob


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« Reply #233 on: Monday, November 11, 2019, 09:55:23 »

Please explain it then. Explain how a replay defeat from 30 years ago, or 5 years ago come to that, has any effect on a player who wasn't even at the club then. Using facts.
It would be more logical to take a look at the stats of every player in both teams, see how many cup games or replays they have each played and work out the probability of a win from there.....
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pauld


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« Reply #234 on: Monday, November 11, 2019, 10:00:08 »

It would be more logical to take a look at the stats of every player in both teams, see how many cup games or replays they have each played and work out the probability of a win from there.....
Indeed. Or even look at the performance of 4th tier teams in cup replays over the past decade, that might at least give an idea of a likelihood of outcome. But 8 matches spread over 30 years, while an interesting piece of trivia, and it is interesting from that point of view, gives no useful indication of how this replay is likely to go.
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Flashheart


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« Reply #235 on: Monday, November 11, 2019, 10:21:26 »

We have played them 11 times since 2002. Anybody that knows anything about statistics will tell you that that is FAR too small sample to present anything meaningful.

That - and we have generally been bad to average over the last few years, which will obviously influence results (no shit sherlock).

So, in summary - the stats don't tell us anything about how the next game will go - nada.

*Edit - Actually, that's not strictly true. What we may be able to take from the data is that current form is likely to have a bearing on results - who'da thunk it?
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Thingie


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« Reply #236 on: Monday, November 11, 2019, 10:32:30 »

I don't get the need to constantly prove Reg wrong.

All 'bogey' grounds and jinks  teams are a nonsense, a quirk of statistics. We all know that really.
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« Reply #237 on: Monday, November 11, 2019, 10:40:36 »

I don't get the need to constantly prove Reg wrong.



We wouldn't need to if he wasn't constantly infecting the forum with his drivel.
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I like it firm and fruity.
pauld


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« Reply #238 on: Monday, November 11, 2019, 11:01:32 »

We wouldn't need to if he wasn't constantly infecting the forum with his drivel.
Bit harsh. Personally I find the historical trivia mildly interesting, it gives a sense of perspective on where we have been as a club, it's the attempt to pass it off as significant for the current team's likely performance that I find irritating, because it's clearly not true
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scribblemilk


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« Reply #239 on: Monday, November 11, 2019, 11:02:07 »

One thing that yesterday and early season did show is that we play much better football and retain possession easier with one up front (as we have the extra centre mid) but are less dangerous up front. Just need to find a Balance between the 2 systems and we should be right up there at the end of the season. Very useful that we can play both ways and I would class that as having a plan B rather than the plan b being to hoof it up to a target man as some have suggested in the past.

I've been saying all season we control games better when we play 433 but yes the goal threat is lacking, our worst and best performances this season have been playing 442. Now that we have DJ we have another option out wide as he is a threat, once Isgrove and Keshi are back it really is a quandry how we setup. The added complication is that Doughty plays much better in a 433 than any other formation as he can play with a little bit more freedom than in a deep two, and running onto the ball which he can't in a 4231. With all players fit I'd play 433 and Keshi Doyle Isgrove being the front three, but I'd also think we should try playing Doyle Yates Isgrove with Yates slightly behind the other two and told to chase lost causes and run the defenders down.
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