Swindon v Walsall pre match chat and matchday thread

[Nijholts Nuts]

The good thing is we have options.

Direct replacements - Woolery (who got an assist playing the role) or DJ
Switch to front three of Yates and Anderson either side of Doyle, push Doughty further up field and bring in another central midfielder.  That may even bring Doughty closer to being involved in the goals.

A midfield containing Lyden, Grant and Doughty sounds mint.

[Reg Smeeton]

There were four different scorers in the first two games when we didn't have Doyle, and we did play a slightly different formation.  I suppose if we were to lose him, that's what we'd revert to, so there would be hope we'd replicate that.

The set piece one is certainly an area where the perception is very much that we don;t offer a threat - not sure if stats back that up or not as I know fans think teams score from corners when the reality is that it is very rare for any team, more likely is teams score more from corners who get more corners.

Oddly, Fryers did score a header from a corner in those first two games didn't he?

Anderson has continued to get into positions that could end in goals, Isgrove looks a little less likely though.  Certainly the way we are playing means the midfield two are not in position very often to threaten though.  If you think back to the 1990 team with two out and out strikers, we did have someone else in the team chipping in, based on where they played in the team.  I think it was slim pickings outside that though.  Oh for a 1993 Taylor type.

The 90 side scored roughly 40 goals from the front 2 and 40 from the rest.  I'm fairly certain that this is some sort of statistical oddity, but I haven't done the exhaustive research.

If you look at a season of 2 high scoring strikers like Austin/Paynter at this stage, Billy had 2 and Charlie hadn't yet played.

 Parkin/Mooney season had others like Igoe and Gurney chipping in here and there.

[Panda Paws]

So if Anderson is still unfit, that presumably means DJ and Woolery out wide or a re jigged line up.

Anderson played 65 mins against Crawley and was outstanding.

[RobertT]

I'd love to get the data on the Corners thing.  It would not surprise me to find out that you have next to no chance of scoring, and it varies very little by team.  It's more the perception of some teams being better because they play a way which gains more of them.  Who knows?  Someone does, these days.  It's why Taylor, and more recently a player like Flint stand out.  Crosses went out of vogue, probably because data started to show very few are much of a success, why would a corner be any better when the defence can prepare?  In fact, I'd love it if short corners were shown to create more goals.  The again, data led to the long ball crap we had in England.  Maybe someone can set-up an anti-OPTA, that provides insight and guidance on how to use superstitions & footballing style myths more effectively.

[theakston2k]

Isgrove is out 4-6 weeks.

Not necessarily a catastrophe providing others stay fit, I've felt we've been carrying him for a good few weeks now so perhaps it will allow him to recharge during his recovery.

[Red Frog]

I'd love to get the data on the Corners thing.  It would not surprise me to find out that you have next to no chance of scoring, and it varies very little by team.  It's more the perception of some teams being better because they play a way which gains more of them.  Who knows?  Someone does, these days.  It's why Taylor, and more recently a player like Flint stand out.  Crosses went out of vogue, probably because data started to show very few are much of a success, why would a corner be any better when the defence can prepare?  In fact, I'd love it if short corners were shown to create more goals.  The again, data led to the long ball crap we had in England.  Maybe someone can set-up an anti-OPTA, that provides insight and guidance on how to use superstitions & footballing style myths more effectively.

Sounds right up Reg's street. 

[Oldwembley69]

Ahh!!  Isgrove out for 6 weeks!1

[Bogus Dave]

I'd love to get the data on the Corners thing.  It would not surprise me to find out that you have next to no chance of scoring, and it varies very little by team.  It's more the perception of some teams being better because they play a way which gains more of them.  Who knows?  Someone does, these days.  It's why Taylor, and more recently a player like Flint stand out.  Crosses went out of vogue, probably because data started to show very few are much of a success, why would a corner be any better when the defence can prepare?  In fact, I'd love it if short corners were shown to create more goals.  The again, data led to the long ball crap we had in England.  Maybe someone can set-up an anti-OPTA, that provides insight and guidance on how to use superstitions & footballing style myths more effectively.

Stat I have ringing in my head is that the average is 1 goal every 47 corners, which even that feels too high (possibly includes 1 or 2 phases after the initial corner)

[Bogus Dave]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/football/blog/2017/mar/27/in-defence-of-the-corner-a-much-maligned-set-piece

That article from a couple of years ago quotes 3% of corners lead to goals, per Opta

[The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey]

You might be surprised to hear that the ratio of corners to goals is almost nil. On average, the data show that a corner is good for (drumroll ....) 0.022 goals. This means that the average EPL team scores 1 goal from a corner about every 10 games.

recently analyzed a set of nearly 13,000 corners taken in the English Premier League between 2011-2013, finding:

Only 17 percent (2,157) "produced a legitimate shot attempt."
Of those shot attempts, 370 were scores.

[THE FLASH]

It's the last league game at home for a few weeks so I may  be in attendance (FLASH in the chair?).
Walsall have lost their last 5 games.

All things considered.....

2-2 Att: 6,333 (212 away)

Glue Pot at 12...

[THE FLASH]

Whereas Stevenage was a must win sort of game by any method, I'd like to see us beat Walsall by getting a goal or 2 from a different source than the front 2.... they've now 20 of our 26. Credit to them, but I'm not sure I've ever seen such reliance, and ideally would like to see say Doughty chip in.

PS, Colt 45 was proper horrible stuff 

Long Life...now that was the stuff...

[Reg Smeeton]

I'd love to get the data on the Corners thing.  It would not surprise me to find out that you have next to no chance of scoring, and it varies very little by team.  It's more the perception of some teams being better because they play a way which gains more of them.  Who knows?  Someone does, these days.  It's why Taylor, and more recently a player like Flint stand out.  Crosses went out of vogue, probably because data started to show very few are much of a success, why would a corner be any better when the defence can prepare?  In fact, I'd love it if short corners were shown to create more goals.  The again, data led to the long ball crap we had in England.  Maybe someone can set-up an anti-OPTA, that provides insight and guidance on how to use superstitions & footballing style myths more effectively.

I read something on this a few years back, generally it was that attacking teams don't score as many as you'd perhaps expect from corners... not that they never score.  The figure was about 3%, further because of the way keepers are protected, the old loft into the mix has given way to the whipped in lowish and hard, a more difficult technique which is why they often don't clear the first man positioned out near the front post.

This aids the impression that sides are wasting corners, and doesn't give you much chance of knocking in a second ball.

[Reg Smeeton]

Stat I have ringing in my head is that the average is 1 goal every 47 corners, which even that feels too high (possibly includes 1 or 2 phases after the initial corner)

We've had just about 50 fruitless corners since Fryers notched v Carlisle. 

[NotHarryAgombar]

We must be due one on Saturday then!

Back to predictions - we need a win to keep the current run going, although as I have said previously we all need to avoid overreacting to one good / bad result and take a season long perspective.
I think this may be another grind against a packed defence, and would take another 1-0.