Pages: 1 ... 9 10 11 [12]   Go Down
Print
Author Topic: Swindon vs Chelsea U21  (Read 5715 times)
Reg Smeeton
Walking Encyclopaedia


+150/-533
Offline Offline

Posts: 33590





Ignore
« Reply #165 on: Wednesday, August 7, 2019, 17:11:04 »

Surely the only variable is who those 2 teams happen to be. Itís no more difficult, or easy, to win any combination of 2 games throughout a season than it is the opening 2 games.

The first games have a novelty value... new players, bigger crowds, sense of occasion etc. 

At towards the end of last season I pointed out, how difficult getting points at the end were, so for example Lou's record breakers were the last STFC side to win the last 2 games.
Logged
RobertT


+59/-29
Offline Offline

Posts: 7063




Ignore
« Reply #166 on: Wednesday, August 7, 2019, 17:49:41 »

Outcomes are the result of circumstances.... in this case football matches played between usually the same number of players on a pitch usually roughly the same dimensions, at the same level. These will be the base circumstances but there are of course then variations, different players, different gaffers weather etc.  As a result historical outcomes tell you something, in this case how difficult it is to win the first 2 games. That's all.

Further if you look at the gaffers who achieved 2 opening wins, you find Bert Head, achieved promotion, Ossie Ardiles achieved promotion (sort of), Hoddle achieved promotion,  McMahon x2, achieved promotion, King had one good season, and Wise/Poyet, whose good initial run set things up for promotion.  They didn't necessarily achieve 2 wins in a promo season, but it is suggestive of competence at least, and interesting that some of our less successful gaffers never achieved it.

Indeed beating Carlisle wouldn't mean promotion.... but it would be a small indicator of possibly better times ahead, nothing more at this point.

Statistically speaking, I'd wager a bet very few teams over the course of their history have much better than a 50% win ratio, therefore, it is actually against the odds for ANY team to win two games on the bounce, regardless of when in the season it occurs (a couple of Prem teams are defying those odds in recent seasons).
Logged
Reg Smeeton
Walking Encyclopaedia


+150/-533
Offline Offline

Posts: 33590





Ignore
« Reply #167 on: Wednesday, August 7, 2019, 18:28:35 »

Statistically speaking, I'd wager a bet very few teams over the course of their history have much better than a 50% win ratio, therefore, it is actually against the odds for ANY team to win two games on the bounce, regardless of when in the season it occurs (a couple of Prem teams are defying those odds in recent seasons).

It's a fair point... interestingly I've some all time stats on this, from the early days of the internet when such things becoming easily available was exciting and don't suppose it's too much different now, so there were 19 teams on over 50%, several only just and perhaps below it now. We were on 48.7% and ranked 49 on the all time list, roughly 5th in Div 3.

This was nearly 20 years ago so we've fallen a bit since.  I'm looking at first 2 games because that's where we are, and still think that if we beat Carlisle, it would the sort of start which could indicate a promising season, no more than that.
Logged
RobertT


+59/-29
Offline Offline

Posts: 7063




Ignore
« Reply #168 on: Wednesday, August 7, 2019, 19:41:51 »

I am liking what I see from Rob Hunt so far - how rare is it to see someone who can play with both feet.  He seemed fairly comfortable at left back and seemed pretty solid at right back at the weekend.
Logged
The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey


+75/-100
Offline Offline

Posts: 4874




Ignore
« Reply #169 on: Wednesday, August 7, 2019, 19:53:52 »

Tbh, as far as L2 squads go ours has to be right up there - if Hylton is, indeed, a goer.

Whether Wellens can pull them all together for a consistent season remains to be seen - but thatís his job.
Logged
Mother Brown


+10/-40
Offline Offline

Posts: 1087




Ignore
« Reply #170 on: Wednesday, August 7, 2019, 20:57:43 »

It's a fair point... interestingly I've some all time stats on this, from the early days of the internet when such things becoming easily available was exciting and don't suppose it's too much different now, so there were 19 teams on over 50%, several only just and perhaps below it now. We were on 48.7% and ranked 49 on the all time list, roughly 5th in Div 3.

This was nearly 20 years ago so we've fallen a bit since.  I'm looking at first 2 games because that's where we are, and still think that if we beat Carlisle, it would the sort of start which could indicate a promising season, no more than that.
Nailed on draw then
Logged
Dr Pierre Chang


+13/-58
Offline Offline

Posts: 2159





Ignore
« Reply #171 on: Thursday, August 8, 2019, 06:50:25 »

Chang mentioned this a couple of weeks ago, when I first heard about it..... I invited him to explain, but thus far he hasn't. I was interested as to whether his ezplanation was the same as what I heard.
Apologies Reg, I must have missed your previous response.

If the explanation you were given involves a certain STFC owner and a wish to improve the view from his seat, then yes!
Logged
Reg Smeeton
Walking Encyclopaedia


+150/-533
Offline Offline

Posts: 33590





Ignore
« Reply #172 on: Thursday, August 8, 2019, 08:49:06 »

Apologies Reg, I must have missed your previous response.

If the explanation you were given involves a certain STFC owner and a wish to improve the view from his seat, then yes!

It isn't, but I like the way all the explanations are slightly different.... I heard it was to avoid our staff wanting to lamp the opposition lot.
« Last Edit: Thursday, August 8, 2019, 09:48:41 by Reg Smeeton » Logged
Costanza


+74/-15
Offline Offline

Posts: 9385


**Est Quod Est**


WWW

Ignore
« Reply #173 on: Thursday, August 8, 2019, 09:44:29 »

Avoiding arguments makes sense to me.
Logged

pauld


+142/-128
Offline Offline

Posts: 19905





Ignore
« Reply #174 on: Thursday, August 8, 2019, 10:10:46 »

It isn't, but I like the way all the explanations are slightly different.... I heard it was to avoid our staff wanting to lamp the opposition lot.
Are our current coaching staff especially more volatile than the previous incumbents down the decades such that we now need to have a DMZ between them and the opposition dugouts? Or have the opposition become significantly more provocative?
Logged
Reg Smeeton
Walking Encyclopaedia


+150/-533
Offline Offline

Posts: 33590





Ignore
« Reply #175 on: Thursday, August 8, 2019, 10:59:38 »

Are our current coaching staff especially more volatile than the previous incumbents down the decades such that we now need to have a DMZ between them and the opposition dugouts? Or have the opposition become significantly more provocative?

PdC was pretty volatile.... I used to take my Bulgarian lady's grandson (10) when he was over and he preferred watching PdC smashing up the dugout and ranting at the 4th official to the football.
Logged
pauld


+142/-128
Offline Offline

Posts: 19905





Ignore
« Reply #176 on: Thursday, August 8, 2019, 11:07:51 »

PdC was pretty volatile.... I used to take my Bulgarian lady's grandson (10) when he was over and he preferred watching PdC smashing up the dugout and ranting at the 4th official to the football.
Indeed, and yet even he didn't need the dugouts moving. Presumably back then it was the opposition who wanted the dugouts moved, away from him!
Logged
Wobbly Bob


+46/-15
Offline Offline

Posts: 1666





Ignore
« Reply #177 on: Thursday, August 8, 2019, 14:13:07 »

Even with the away dugout being moved, Steve Evans would still get in the way.
Logged

Now you give me everything.
Pages: 1 ... 9 10 11 [12]   Go Up
Print
Jump to: