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Author Topic: Newport v Swindon officially postponed what you doing instead thread  (Read 21356 times)
wheretherealredsare
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« Reply #45 on: Saturday, February 16, 2019, 17:20:52 »

Ever since that Notts chairman got his cock out they’ve really picked up.

Power- it’s over to you!
In the spirit of RW saying fans have a part to play perhaps that is what he meant. Next home game all fans should get their parts out and wave them to guarantee promotion. It will be nailed on (promotion, not the part). Unfortunately due to sanctions I won't be permitted to take part join in.
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Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #46 on: Saturday, February 16, 2019, 17:24:41 »

6 off 7th with a game in hand. Most certainly all to play for.

The GD is worth a point off atm.... so effectively 7

We were always going to drop a few places today, what it does do however is bring a certain number of clubs into the mix who previoiusly people hadn't really considered, like Oldham, Crewe, Stevenage, Grimsby... all of whom we have to play.

The bottom line is still we have to win the next 4 in a row to get into contention.... as we'd need 2 wins and a draw to get into the top 7 if nobody else played a game.
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The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey

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« Reply #47 on: Saturday, February 16, 2019, 17:43:35 »

Don’t really have to win next 4. Just accumulate enough points in the next 14 games to make 7th. Doesn’t matter when you win those points.
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Batch
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« Reply #48 on: Saturday, February 16, 2019, 17:57:28 »

you don't, but with 2 home games coming up we need at least 4 points out next 2 imo
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Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #49 on: Saturday, February 16, 2019, 18:09:55 »

Don’t really have to win next 4. Just accumulate enough points in the next 14 games to make 7th. Doesn’t matter when you win those points.

In theory. However that takes no account of the psychology.... it's very difficult to win games towards the end of the season when fatigue and pressure start to take their toll.

Let's imagine that 72 might be enough for a PO spot... win the next 4 we'd be on 58 needing 14, that would be very doable, and leave a bit of room for say the line being 75.  If say the next 4 yielded a win a loss and 2 draws... that would leave 7 wins from the last 10, very difficult and you want find many seasons in our history with such a late season haul.  Now is the time to do it, starting on Sat v in form Grimsby, not easy.
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Abrahammer

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« Reply #50 on: Saturday, February 16, 2019, 18:23:11 »

So if we were to only get say 10 points out of the next 12 then it’s all over?

Just checking
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Paolo69

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« Reply #51 on: Saturday, February 16, 2019, 18:54:22 »

Yep, no chance whatsoever with 3 wins and a draw. Don’t be so silly.
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Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #52 on: Saturday, February 16, 2019, 19:02:33 »

So if we were to only get say 10 points out of the next 12 then it’s all over?

Just checking

That would be a decent return... but history tells us even in a very good season the haul from the last 10 games averages out at 17 points as a mean figure, or median figure.

I'm basing very good season on achieving promotion or a PO finish.  We've had 14 of these in my time.... so from 56 points with 10 to go, 17 would give you 73, which could be enough or not, that remains to be seen.

From the 58 point position the average good season finish would yield 75 points which was good enough last year.

To give a further indiator of how hard this is.... our 3 title winning sides from that era, 85/86 got 24.... 95/96 got 20..... 11/12 got 20  and 68/69 got 21.  7 of those sides got < 17,  2 got 18 and only the final Macari side, did the strong finsih for 21.
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pauld
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« Reply #53 on: Saturday, February 16, 2019, 19:47:38 »

Im going for a run, having a bath and then making tapas for dinner.  Just as soon as this episode of Friends is over.
Ha, I did pretty much exactly that albeit I preceded it by going to the tip rather than watching Friends. And I made pasta rather than tapas but that's an anagram so it's more or less identical.
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flammableBen

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« Reply #54 on: Sunday, February 17, 2019, 11:12:32 »

I made tapas for half of fucking old town last night. Fucking amateurs.
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Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #55 on: Sunday, February 17, 2019, 11:55:20 »

Good job we’re not playing today. According to the records we’ve not won a game on Feb 16th since 1907! One famous defeat on this day was at home to the Villa in ‘92, when I seem to remember the temporary tv studio, housing villain Jimmy Hill, was pelted with missiles. Hilarious!

I looked at league games in my time of attending which is back to 62/63.... and found only 3, all away from the CG. Loses to Forest 0-1, Grimsby 0-2, Millwall 0-3.

I guess there has to be a date which is statistically the worst for league games.... and conversely the best.  Is there an easy way of working it out? In other words how did you find this stat?
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REDBUCK

« Reply #56 on: Sunday, February 17, 2019, 12:28:42 »

As always,

http://www.swindon-town-fc.co.uk/OnThisDay.asp?date=2019-02-16
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Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #57 on: Sunday, February 17, 2019, 12:39:46 »


Ooh never noticed that.  Certainly 16th Feb, has never been a happy day for STFC league games.... so probably just as well we missed Newport.
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Legends-Lounge

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« Reply #58 on: Sunday, February 17, 2019, 17:18:28 »

Ooh never noticed that.  Certainly 16th Feb, has never been a happy day for STFC league games.... so probably just as well we missed Newport.

Touch wood you’re not supasticious.
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Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #59 on: Tuesday, February 19, 2019, 21:15:45 »

 Newport getting back into contention tonight.... they'd need to score a few more than the current 4 to get above us.
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