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Author Topic: Who Do we blame ?, Power/Brown/Players or fans ??.  (Read 48996 times)
horlock07

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« Reply #240 on: Monday, November 19, 2018, 09:02:05 »

....and still not say anything decisive

And then deny actually saying it about 5 posts later, as OI have said on a few occasions he's either a cat or Theresa May?
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DiV
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« Reply #241 on: Monday, November 19, 2018, 09:17:04 »

I'll agree to disagree, as this one is going nowhere.... I'll carry on looking at the 2 down making it different to the 4 down of Div 3, and the temporary 4 down of of Div 2, of which we fell foul in 94/95. Then the difference was exposed by the fact that by finishing 21st we went down, but under the usual 3 down we wouldn't have.

So, what you’re actually saying is in order to stay up we need to finish outside the relegation zone.
Just like in every other division.
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Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #242 on: Monday, November 19, 2018, 09:24:26 »

anyway I'm sticking up for Reg. He's just applying the staple formula of football mathmatics (Williamsonsian branch):

   3d=w

 I think there will be a small exhibition dedicated to it in the long awaited STFC museum.... OK not quite The Smithsonian, or even The Ashmolean, but Williamsonsian does have a certain ring to it.
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Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #243 on: Monday, November 19, 2018, 09:27:56 »

So, what you’re actually saying is in order to stay up we need to finish outside the relegation zone.
Just like in every other division.

We're STFC... we managed to get relegated in 89/90, despite being well clear of the relegation zone.
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Shrivvy Road

« Reply #244 on: Monday, November 19, 2018, 09:33:46 »

Struggling to see why people avoid this site
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horlock07

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« Reply #245 on: Monday, November 19, 2018, 09:57:37 »

We're STFC... we managed to get relegated in 89/90, despite being well clear of the relegation zone.



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OOH! SHAUN TAYLOR
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« Reply #246 on: Monday, November 19, 2018, 10:04:31 »

I think it's fair to say that the fact that we need to win games is an incontrovertible truth which anyone can see. I have found though over the years that trying to argue with Reg is like trying to herd cats...  Wink
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Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #247 on: Monday, November 19, 2018, 10:28:16 »

I think it's fair to say that the fact that we need to win games is an incontrovertible truth which anyone can see. I have found though over the years that trying to argue with Reg is like trying to herd cats...  Wink

The point isn't about whether winning games is desirable of course it is... the point is about relegation battles being different depending on time and context, such as which division you're in; when.  So for example my first relegation battle was in 64/65, 2 went down from Div 2, and we dropped in very controversial circumstances.... when a late Northampton OG, gifted Pompey the point they needed, in a Saturday evening KO, which the FL allowed though all other games had kicked off at 3.

Now the context here was that only 2 went down and it was played under 2 points for a win and GA (goal average) rather than (GD) goal difference, so we won more games 14, than Pompey or Leyton Orient 12, but still dropped.

Had, the current 3 points for  a win, and GD been used we'd have stayed up, even with the present 3 down. 

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Wobbly Bob

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« Reply #248 on: Monday, November 19, 2018, 10:29:07 »

Struggling to see why people avoid this site

The bonhomie on both  the Adver site and FB is hard to beat.
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Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?
Crap!
Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #249 on: Tuesday, November 20, 2018, 14:34:03 »

Grimsby & Cambridge will be in the race to escape the Football League black hole too. That's four who over the course of the season I think will finish below us. Something like a bottom four of;

21 Cambridge Utd
22 Grimsby/Notts
============
23 Notts/Grimsby
24 Macclesfield

I'm going to go out on a limb and say we'll have a very mini decent run at some point and ultimately finish about 14th. It will be deemed a relative success. Not brilliant but not a disaster. The real hard work will start next season.

Grimsby are interesting, their last season shows how bad you can be and stiil stay up in Div 4... so a source of encouragement.

Last season after 18 they had 23, we've 21. They then beat us and backed it up with another couple of wins, so 31 points after 21 games. Then no win in 20, only 7 draws, so 38 after 41, looked like they were done, but 4 wins in 5 saved them.

Working on that basis we'll probably need something like 7 wins and 9 draws from the remaining 28 games, unless someone else joins Macc in looking doomed. Sounds easy enough , but difficult to see atm.
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DiV
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« Reply #250 on: Tuesday, November 20, 2018, 15:01:23 »

So, Grimsby won games and stayed up??

So, that’s the secret to a division 4 relegation battle? as opposed to other divisions where it’s different
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The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey

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« Reply #251 on: Tuesday, November 20, 2018, 15:07:08 »

We’ve 6 teams below us at the moment. If we agree Macc are already fucked, can we expect the remaining 5 to have more or less of a chance to go on runs that overtake us.

Will our present poor run really continue long enough for 5 teams to go past us?
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Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #252 on: Tuesday, November 20, 2018, 15:16:40 »

We’ve 6 teams below us at the moment. If we agree Macc are already fucked, can we expect the remaining 5 to have more or less of a chance to go on runs that overtake us.

Will our present poor run really continue long enough for 5 teams to go past us?

You'd expect somebody to haul themselves out, who knows it could be us. FGR did it last season,when Vince dipped his hand into his wallet and bought a few in January.

Up to about the 30 game mark, FGR had been bottom 2 at that point they got themselves out and Barnet and Chesterfield then occupied the slots for the rest of the season.... was close mind.  Grimsby never got into the drop zone, got to third bottom but still had a small buffer.
« Last Edit: Tuesday, November 20, 2018, 15:52:41 by Reg Smeeton » Logged
BambooToTheFuture

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« Reply #253 on: Tuesday, November 20, 2018, 16:04:20 »

Grimsby are interesting, their last season shows how bad you can be and stiil stay up in Div 4... so a source of encouragement.

Last season after 18 they had 23, we've 21. They then beat us and backed it up with another couple of wins, so 31 points after 21 games. Then no win in 20, only 7 draws, so 38 after 41, looked like they were done, but 4 wins in 5 saved them.

Working on that basis we'll probably need something like 7 wins and 9 draws from the remaining 28 games, unless someone else joins Macc in looking doomed. Sounds easy enough , but difficult to see atm.

Ahh but see this is where we differ. You look at the more negative elements toward Town, myself at the more positive (sometimes over achingly, I'll admit). See Grimsby were better last season after 18 games with 23pts. You failed to mention that this season after 18 they are shitter. They have 18pts after 18 games.

Working on that basis, with Grimsby being shitter than they were last season, they will join Macclesfield in the drop. We have to factor in Notts County because of where they are and if Cheltenham don't win their game in hand surely they are in trouble too?

The biggest two upsides currently are;

One win puts us 13th. Above that the points get squeezed. We're realistically playing for a mid-table finish with the likes of Oldham, Crawley, Northampton, Port Vale, Crewe, Yeovil. In that order Crawley are 13th. In the last 5 games we have the same form (4pts from 5), except our win is more recent than Crawley. The 5 game form reads (most recent to the right);

Crawley - WDLLL
Town     - DLWLL

Should Crawley be concerned that their form marginally looks worse than Towns (as in 0 win in 4 to our 1 win in 3) and that we can easily switch places with them?

The other upside;

Even if ALL of the 6 teams below us were to win their next match, their GDs are already much worse; Morecambe & Grimsby -11, Cambridge -13, Chelt -10, Notts -19, Macc -23. Even a 3-0 win at best would only see them level GD (talking Numb w GIH). Bar Morecambe, a win anyway could only bring two of them level.

While I agree we're a bit shit currently, I do think we'll have a run. Not a Crystal Palace style run from a few years back but at least one good month of 3-4 wins on the bounce.

One thing to bear in mind, but of course not to put hope on is this;
Last season, League Two Champions Accrington, had 37pts from the halfway point of 23 games. We currently have 21pts from 18 games. Now it would be a tough ask on anyone but I mention purely on the basis of; if Town had a 5 game winning run, right now - we'd have 36pts from 23 games.

The dynamic and variables of football are interesting ones but it certainly does make one think  Hmmm
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Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #254 on: Tuesday, November 20, 2018, 16:35:00 »

Ahh but see this is where we differ. You look at the more negative elements toward Town, myself at the more positive (sometimes over achingly, I'll admit). See Grimsby were better last season after 18 games with 23pts. You failed to mention that this season after 18 they are shitter. They have 18pts after 18 games.

Working on that basis, with Grimsby being shitter than they were last season, they will join Macclesfield in the drop. We have to factor in Notts County because of where they are and if Cheltenham don't win their game in hand surely they are in trouble too?

The biggest two upsides currently are;

One win puts us 13th. Above that the points get squeezed. We're realistically playing for a mid-table finish with the likes of Oldham, Crawley, Northampton, Port Vale, Crewe, Yeovil. In that order Crawley are 13th. In the last 5 games we have the same form (4pts from 5), except our win is more recent than Crawley. The 5 game form reads (most recent to the right);

Crawley - WDLLL
Town     - DLWLL

Should Crawley be concerned that their form marginally looks worse than Towns (as in 0 win in 4 to our 1 win in 3) and that we can easily switch places with them?

The other upside;

Even if ALL of the 6 teams below us were to win their next match, their GDs are already much worse; Morecambe & Grimsby -11, Cambridge -13, Chelt -10, Notts -19, Macc -23. Even a 3-0 win at best would only see them level GD (talking Numb w GIH). Bar Morecambe, a win anyway could only bring two of them level.

While I agree we're a bit shit currently, I do think we'll have a run. Not a Crystal Palace style run from a few years back but at least one good month of 3-4 wins on the bounce.

One thing to bear in mind, but of course not to put hope on is this;
Last season, League Two Champions Accrington, had 37pts from the halfway point of 23 games. We currently have 21pts from 18 games. Now it would be a tough ask on anyone but I mention purely on the basis of; if Town had a 5 game winning run, right now - we'd have 36pts from 23 games.

The dynamic and variables of football are interesting ones but it certainly does make one think  Hmmm

I like your analysis, indeed there's nothing wrong with our position that say a nice little run of 4 wins in a row couldn't put right, for the time being.

However the concern is the lack of goals which is now reaching historic proportions of shitness for any Div let alone 4. 1 goal and an OG from open play in the last 9.

The last run of similar shitness was in 96/97 in Div 2, however very different context, then we'd had a reasonable season, up until 10 games to go, when we got stuffed 7 at Bolton, but bounced back to beat Stoke 1-0, with 8 games to go, at that point we were 3 points off the PO's on 52..  you'd imagine the players psychologically knocked off, as we only scored 1 in the last 8 and picked up 2 more points from 0-0's never in any real danger of dropping though.

So whereas now we're on 3 from 9.... then we had 2 from 9.
« Last Edit: Tuesday, November 20, 2018, 16:58:32 by Reg Smeeton » Logged
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