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Author Topic: How do you think we are shaping up?  (Read 9405 times)
Peter Venkman


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« Reply #75 on: Wednesday, October 3, 2018, 09:09:48 »

With a few people saying they no longer trust PB and hes had enough time to sort it out - I did another quick "same point of the season" comparison with our other 2 championship winnings seasons in this league under Macari and PdC.

All after 11 matches played.

Brown   - position 11th W4 D4 L3 F16 A15 P16

Macari   - position 12th W5 D1 L5 F14 A15 P16

Di Canio - position 12th W5 D0 L6 F17 A12 P15

Interesting.
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Flashheart


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« Reply #76 on: Wednesday, October 3, 2018, 09:14:05 »

Some had us down for automatic promotion after the Yeovil game. After yesterday, some have us down as not even making the playoffs. Football fans are a funny old breed.

We need some consistency. The frustrating thing about yesterday is that we are capable of so, so much better.
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« Reply #77 on: Wednesday, October 3, 2018, 09:19:18 »

We are not team that can win every game. Of course we will lose some. Not necessarily by a better team either. That is life. That is reality.

Too early to judge. After christmas is always the critical time. So many games left.
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Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #78 on: Wednesday, October 3, 2018, 09:43:35 »

We are not team that can win every game. Of course we will lose some. Not necessarily by a better team either. That is life. That is reality.

Too early to judge. After christmas is always the critical time. So many games left.

I think some defeats feel worse than others, so for example losing at Lincoln wasn't altogether unexpected. 

Losing at Crewe midweek, a bit more damaging. It throws onto the balance sheet 2 things.... last season we tended to struggle with midweek fixtures, against recently we've usually managed to get something at Gresty Road, as Crewe's model has looked increasingly anachronistic, leading to them struggling at the wrong end of Div 4.

We've now got Cobblers coming up.... not quite a must win yet, but not far away.  They've a new gaffer, and Curle obviously went back to basics, last night and got a 0-0.

I'd imagine he'll go for more of the same on Saturday, and make it ugly hope to nick something, especially as weather forecast isn't great.
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« Reply #79 on: Wednesday, October 3, 2018, 10:05:44 »

Fair to say I've flipped between playoffs and not playoffs.

You are quite right Sippo, its too early to know which way it'll go.

But its natural to react on current game trend isn't it? 3 out of the last  4 games haven't been good enough. At Yeovil it looked like Bury was an off day, now it looks potentially more serious. When we hammer Northampton (!) it'll flip back to "inconsistent".

Such is human nature.

I can't see autos this year, I'm 99.9% certain. You can quote me on that if I'm wrong,
« Last Edit: Wednesday, October 3, 2018, 10:16:35 by Batch » Logged
Bogus Dave
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« Reply #80 on: Wednesday, October 3, 2018, 10:09:17 »

Difference with the di Canio season is that when we had a weakness in the squad, it could be quickly attended too with a loan (ridehalgh and foderingham spring to mind as the most obvious examples). That cannot be done this time
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Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #81 on: Wednesday, October 3, 2018, 10:09:49 »

With a few people saying they no longer trust PB and hes had enough time to sort it out - I did another quick "same point of the season" comparison with our other 2 championship winnings seasons in this league under Macari and PdC.

All after 11 matches played.

Brown   - position 11th W4 D4 L3 F16 A15 P16

Macari   - position 12th W5 D1 L5 F14 A15 P16

Di Canio - position 12th W5 D0 L6 F17 A12 P15

Interesting.


Let's look at all our Div 4 seasons.

Trollope 82/83 - position 6th  W5 D4 L2 P19

Beamish 83/84 - position 13th W4 D1 L6 P13

Macari 84/85 - position 12th W3 D3 L5 P12

Wise 06/07  - position 4th W 7 D2 L 2 P 23

Flitcroft 17/18 - position 9th W 6 D1 L 4 P19

Does this tell us anything  Hmmm
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« Reply #82 on: Wednesday, October 3, 2018, 10:21:05 »

2 championship winnings seasons in this league under Macari and PdC.

...
Macari   - position 12th W5 D1 L5 F14 A15 P16
...

This was before my time. anyone remember what the vibe was at this time under Macari. Were people seeing something good was happening, or were they as skeptical? What changed it around for Lou's team?

I guess we are less patient and demand instant results these days anyway. That said, football has changed too. Its not normal to build a squad over more than 1-2 years.
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Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #83 on: Wednesday, October 3, 2018, 10:38:18 »

This was before my time. anyone remember what the vibe was at this time under Macari. Were people seeing something good was happening, or were they as skeptical? What changed it around for Lou's team?

I guess we are less patient and demand instant results these days anyway. That said, football has changed too. Its not normal to build a squad over more than 1-2 years.

Although a dodgy league start on the road, we did well in the LC, beating Sunderland over 2 legs. The season was turned round by beating Exeter late on.... Colin Calderwood.  Lou made a number of personnel changes, as you could still acquire players back then so Kenny Allen came into goal... Nicky Coleman was loaned into left back, and Lou himself retired. Possibly the key change was Leigh Barnard, having filled in at LB for a bit came back from injury into midfield.

Leigh was one of those, who you will still find posters on here telling you was no good, but was to use modern parlance a water carrier. After the Exeter game we lost 3 of the next 37 winning 29 and drawing 5. Happy days.
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Peter Venkman


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« Reply #84 on: Wednesday, October 3, 2018, 11:28:35 »

This was before my time. anyone remember what the vibe was at this time under Macari. Were people seeing something good was happening, or were they as skeptical? What changed it around for Lou's team?

I guess we are less patient and demand instant results these days anyway. That said, football has changed too. Its not normal to build a squad over more than 1-2 years.
Under Macari I felt there was a feel good factor in the club all season, even when we started poorly, Lou had been sacked the season before and reinstated so was an idol of tha fans who almost 100% backed him.

Brown does not have that but then again fans seem to be more fickle now than they were but that could just be social media giving idiots the freedom to express their feelings, back then it was only expressed in the pub or on matchdays so it could depend upon you circle of mates, if they were generally positive then so were you.
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bamboonoshoe


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« Reply #85 on: Wednesday, October 3, 2018, 11:33:17 »

Let's look at all our Div 4 seasons.

Trollope 82/83 - position 6th  W5 D4 L2 P19

Beamish 83/84 - position 13th W4 D1 L6 P13

Macari 84/85 - position 12th W3 D3 L5 P12

Wise 06/07  - position 4th W 7 D2 L 2 P 23

Flitcroft 17/18 - position 9th W 6 D1 L 4 P19

Does this tell us anything  Hmmm


I think it tells us that comparative to the current season you are in (of which there are many variables), you can't draw any accurate conclusion to the data available.

My opinion? Don't forget I am a rose-tinted, over estimating of our players ability type (apparently). I think a lot are just acting on impulse after a match. So lose = we're Oxford (last night was just a bad advert for L2, although had Iandolo's strike gone in, many would look at it differently no doubt, still both teams were poor), Win = we're Hoddle's heroes, Draw = Just a middling L2 club looking for stability.

We really can't predict the future, even if we claim to be Nostradamus or Septic Peg but we can have a bloody good guess. FWIW and I know my opinion is looked at with very, very much caution so will always be overlooked. I think we have flipped our form around from last season. We seem to be much better at home than under Flitcroft and a little worse away (so far!). We have to remember though, we still haven't been at full strength yet. Every time we get a "settled team", someone has either picked up an injury or made a stupid tackle (Knoyle, Dunne). Taylor's red, I'll forgive and I still have my opinion on that (another story, another thread). PB is having to play players out of position because of this. Of course he can't control a player making a rash high tackle "in the moment" and players like Doughty, Woolery, and Conroy who would likely make the starting XI or at least be pushing, have been injured. The latter seems to be about there now though. If we have a near fully fit and unsuspended compliment, then from now to January I'd say we can be there or abouts the play-off places. True intent from the board, if PB gets to buy a "lay it off" type striker (or Richards discovers he can actually work in the current system or Woolery comes into the squad and plays well) and a LB cover then we still could make a good go at autos.

As mentioned above there are way too many variables right now. Come back to me on the evening of the 29th December (after we've played Mansfield off the park and won, resulting in DF getting the boot) and see where we are going in to the "Transfer Window".

Also, have you been to see your friend Lee play? He's rather good, you know.
« Last Edit: Wednesday, October 3, 2018, 11:37:38 by bamboonoshoe » Logged

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Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #86 on: Wednesday, October 3, 2018, 11:48:38 »

Under Macari I felt there was a feel good factor in the club all season, even when we started poorly, Lou had been sacked the season before and reinstated so was an idol of tha fans who almost 100% backed him.

Brown does not have that but then again fans seem to be more fickle now than they were but that could just be social media giving idiots the freedom to express their feelings, back then it was only expressed in the pub or on matchdays so it could depend upon you circle of mates, if they were generally positive then so were you.

Little difference between then and now, other than more platforms to express opinion... the opinions are largely the same.

So for example John Trollope..... yes John Trollope Town legend, was buried by negative fan reaction to a poor trot of results, when he was trying to build a sustainable Town side in the image of Bert Head, using a high number of local players.

Lou got a bit more time as we'd dropped to a historic low, and signs of progress, albeit small steps were discernible in his first season.  By his final season, when we had a poor trot, gates dropped right down, and questions were asked about his commitment to the cause. Poor trot was 1 win in 9 Oct/Nov 88, we still made the PO's Lou left at the end of the campaign.
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« Reply #87 on: Wednesday, October 3, 2018, 12:21:24 »

Thanks Reg/Venks
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« Reply #88 on: Wednesday, October 3, 2018, 12:52:55 »

I still think the Play Offs by season end.  Our worst, Lincoln aside, has been narrow losses, our best was a convincing win - I think when we are poor, and we will be, we are still in games.  Last night for example was very poor but we could just as easily come away 1-0 winners, a draw or lost 2-0.  We'd have always been in that game though, even allowing for our performance.

I think our best is better than nearly all teams, our worst is only worse than a small handful.

Brown needs to have a think about being so stuck on a single formation though - last night and Bury have surely shown us that key players in key positions are crucial.  Lose them and it is not as simple as putting someone else into their slot, sometimes we have to look at the squad and see how you get the best out of the best eleven you can put out.

Putting it another way, if we do not make the Play Offs, Brown should have his bags packed for him.
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Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #89 on: Wednesday, October 3, 2018, 13:37:02 »

I think it tells us that comparative to the current season you are in (of which there are many variables), you can't draw any accurate conclusion to the data available.

My opinion? Don't forget I am a rose-tinted, over estimating of our players ability type (apparently). I think a lot are just acting on impulse after a match. So lose = we're Oxford (last night was just a bad advert for L2, although had Iandolo's strike gone in, many would look at it differently no doubt, still both teams were poor), Win = we're Hoddle's heroes, Draw = Just a middling L2 club looking for stability.

We really can't predict the future, even if we claim to be Nostradamus or Septic Peg but we can have a bloody good guess.

Of course, all seasons are different, but with some similarities discernible.  Namely you play 46 games 23 at home on the same pitch etc.  Most games will be closeish as most teams in Div 4 are of fairly similar ability, and it will take a while to find a winning formula if it is at all possible. Luck will play a big part which can't be easily factored in.

This explains why given the sample size no side has won 11 out of 11, no side has lost 11 out 11, the wins and loses are somewhere in between tending towards a median figure.  Scores in individual games follow this trend, it's unusual to get a 5-0, 0-6 outlier type of thing.

So the median figure for wins after 11 games is 5... it's wins that mostly accumulate points, so what you should be aiming to do.

PB has 4, slightly substandard but not by much and possible to rectify, compared to our most recent other season in Div 4 17/18 Flitcroft had 6, slightly above the median figure but again not by much... but is it possible to detect something even here?  Flitcroft seemd to like having plenty of forward players.... Smith, Norris, Mullin, Woolery, Anderson, and then Richards for Smith.... PB is more defensive minded doesn't mind a draw, hence why one fewer forward player and a bit more emphasis in midfield... or it coud be the injury problems to Conroy, Lancashire and Robertson forced his hand on the loan moves.

In the league winning seasons, Macari and PdC and were able to significantly strengthen when necessary.... not a luxury that will be available to PB. (Unless something very strange happens)
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