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Author Topic: This spy malarkey.  (Read 48210 times)
pauld
Aaron Aardvark

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« Reply #75 on: Thursday, March 15, 2018, 14:05:30 »

I think that was his point?!
Too subtle Smiley
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Flashheart

« Reply #76 on: Friday, March 16, 2018, 10:55:44 »

I've a feeling that the Ruskies had nothing to do with this, and that the tories are going to end up liking like a proper bunch of cunts. Even more so than they do already.

Just a hunch.
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horlock07

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« Reply #77 on: Friday, March 16, 2018, 11:07:49 »

I've a feeling that the Ruskies had nothing to do with this, and that the tories are going to end up liking like a proper bunch of cunts. Even more so than they do already.

Just a hunch.

Nicked from another forum, although I can vouch for the background of the poster...

Mrs May's use of the phrase "military grade" nerve agent seems a deliberate political usage. As a trained chemist, I can't think of any scientific meaning of "military grade". (That is quite different from the situation in, say, nuclear weapons, where "weapons grade" plutonium has a distinct, scientifically measurable variation in composition from simply "plutonium").

So "military grade nerve agent" seems deliberate phraseology to suggest a military origin, but does not actually demonstrate that military origin. A lot is made of the level of sophistication required to make nerve agents, often stating that it is only within the technical compass of a state-level player. That is probably true when talking about a chemical warfare programme aiming to make thousands of tons of material and deploy it in battlefield-tested weapons. However, that is not the case with an assassination attempt: to produce gram-level quantities of such a chemical would be within the ability of any small group with access to a university-level research laboratory. Not something you cook up in your kitchen, but not something that necessarily requires hundreds of millions of pounds / dollars / roubles of effort either. The supposed formulation and synthetic routes are in the open literature.

I'm also not clear in my mind what method you would use to demonstrate the source of the chemical. I can think of analytical routes in to that problem, but they would require that you had unequivocal comparison sources of original material of known origin, which seems slightly unlikely, and in any case would probably not be admitted publicly even if true. The alternative seems to be a circular argument: "we believe only the Russians have made Novichok - we've identified Novichok - ergo it must be Russian". Sounds plausible, but only stands up to scrutiny if the first statement is true, and there is no evidence that that is the case.

So my feeling is that it is case unproved about the source. It might be the Russian state, but that is by no means certain, even though Mrs May seems to have been quite successful in convincing others that it is. The other possibilities (which might include another state player; or a sub-state level criminal group who have either stolen, or successfully made the agent) seem not to have been rigorously excluded.

Incidentally, I'm not sure what would be more worrying: that a state is acting with impunity to assassinate people in foreign countries, or that a non-state (criminal) organisation is doing so.


Putting a cynical slant on it, it all looks rather convenient for too many parties....

May - gets to play the iron lady and unleash the right wing media on Corbyn (BTW today's Mail front page makes classic reading for those informed enough to know about their historical support for Hitler....), when conveniently there are elections coming up where the polls suggest she was going to get a right kicking;
Putin - Gets to play the hard man, but also simultaneously the victim card - with, conveniently, elections coming up;
Trump - Gets to make a big deal of being 'hard on Russia' just as Mueller starts getting a little close to the door?
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pauld
Aaron Aardvark

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« Reply #78 on: Friday, March 16, 2018, 11:29:05 »

Putting a cynical slant on it, it all looks rather convenient for too many parties....

May - gets to play the iron lady and unleash the right wing media on Corbyn (BTW today's Mail front page makes classic reading for those informed enough to know about their historical support for Hitler....), when conveniently there are elections coming up where the polls suggest she was going to get a right kicking;
Putin - Gets to play the hard man, but also simultaneously the victim card - with, conveniently, elections coming up;
Trump - Gets to make a big deal of being 'hard on Russia' just as Mueller starts getting a little close to the door?
So under this analysis, it was actually AN Other who tried to off the pair, but everyone else, including the wrongly accused alleged perpetrators, jumped on the bandwagon post facto because it suited their political needs? Bit of a stretch isn't it? I get that the case is far from proven, but this is one hell of a leap isn't it? And if this is the work of the Russian state, it's hardly an isolated incident - from Litvinienko to the Malaysian airliner shot down over Ukraine, to the use of "Little Green Men" in creating a Ukrainian civil war, to their equally illegal proxy annexation of territory in Georgia, widespread interference in elections here, in the US and throughout Europe, to mutliple suspicious deaths of Putin opponents here and across Europe, Russia is a gangster state headed by a gangster who thinks he can kill, steal and wage illegal war at will. Sometimes the most obvious explanation is the most obvious because it's what happened.
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Abrahammer

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« Reply #79 on: Friday, March 16, 2018, 11:46:58 »

The government will have received information from the intelligence services that gave them reason to justifiably accuse Russia.

As per normal it’s descended into the usual political point scoring by hard core blue and red supporters
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pauld
Aaron Aardvark

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« Reply #80 on: Friday, March 16, 2018, 12:00:55 »

Ha, ha, this made me laugh though:

http://www.swindonadvertiser.co.uk/news/16091634.south-swindon-politicians-unite-against-russias-unlawful-use-of-force/?ref=mr&lp=14

That'll make Putin think twice Smiley
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pauld
Aaron Aardvark

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« Reply #81 on: Friday, March 16, 2018, 12:02:01 »

The government will have received information from the intelligence services that gave them reason to justifiably accuse Russia.
tbf, Corbyn's got a point on that - Blair's dodgy dossier has permanently tarnished the credibility of "intelligence sources" as a justification for anything.
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Private Fraser

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« Reply #82 on: Friday, March 16, 2018, 12:21:43 »

Arsenal draw CSKA in the Europa league.  You couldn't make it up!   Roll Eyes
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horlock07

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« Reply #83 on: Friday, March 16, 2018, 12:39:07 »

tbf, Corbyn's got a point on that - Blair's dodgy dossier has permanently tarnished the credibility of "intelligence sources" as a justification for anything.

Did Blair's dossier actually have much to do with intelligence services, wasn't it just cribbed from somebody's A level homework? Although it does bring Dr Kelly into the equation another great success from our security services....
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jayohaitchenn
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« Reply #84 on: Friday, March 16, 2018, 12:39:10 »

Nicked from another forum, although I can vouch for the background of the poster...

Mrs May's use of the phrase "military grade" nerve agent seems a deliberate political usage. As a trained chemist, I can't think of any scientific meaning of "military grade". (That is quite different from the situation in, say, nuclear weapons, where "weapons grade" plutonium has a distinct, scientifically measurable variation in composition from simply "plutonium").

So "military grade nerve agent" seems deliberate phraseology to suggest a military origin, but does not actually demonstrate that military origin. A lot is made of the level of sophistication required to make nerve agents, often stating that it is only within the technical compass of a state-level player. That is probably true when talking about a chemical warfare programme aiming to make thousands of tons of material and deploy it in battlefield-tested weapons. However, that is not the case with an assassination attempt: to produce gram-level quantities of such a chemical would be within the ability of any small group with access to a university-level research laboratory. Not something you cook up in your kitchen, but not something that necessarily requires hundreds of millions of pounds / dollars / roubles of effort either. The supposed formulation and synthetic routes are in the open literature.

I'm also not clear in my mind what method you would use to demonstrate the source of the chemical. I can think of analytical routes in to that problem, but they would require that you had unequivocal comparison sources of original material of known origin, which seems slightly unlikely, and in any case would probably not be admitted publicly even if true. The alternative seems to be a circular argument: "we believe only the Russians have made Novichok - we've identified Novichok - ergo it must be Russian". Sounds plausible, but only stands up to scrutiny if the first statement is true, and there is no evidence that that is the case.

So my feeling is that it is case unproved about the source. It might be the Russian state, but that is by no means certain, even though Mrs May seems to have been quite successful in convincing others that it is. The other possibilities (which might include another state player; or a sub-state level criminal group who have either stolen, or successfully made the agent) seem not to have been rigorously excluded.

Incidentally, I'm not sure what would be more worrying: that a state is acting with impunity to assassinate people in foreign countries, or that a non-state (criminal) organisation is doing so.


Putting a cynical slant on it, it all looks rather convenient for too many parties....

May - gets to play the iron lady and unleash the right wing media on Corbyn (BTW today's Mail front page makes classic reading for those informed enough to know about their historical support for Hitler....), when conveniently there are elections coming up where the polls suggest she was going to get a right kicking;
Putin - Gets to play the hard man, but also simultaneously the victim card - with, conveniently, elections coming up;
Trump - Gets to make a big deal of being 'hard on Russia' just as Mueller starts getting a little close to the door?

There is obviously more evidence that Joe Public is not likely to see. Our allies in the US and Europe have seen what we've seen and are backing us. The timing is convenient for May, but to say the Russians might not have done it is a bit flat Earth for me.

https://twitter.com/RidT/status/974288060304297984?s=19

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/84plbu/remarkable_note_from_germany_london_shared_a/?st=jetxjuwt&sh=e96da2d2
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The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey

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« Reply #85 on: Friday, March 16, 2018, 12:40:48 »

tbf, Corbyn's got a point on that - Blair's dodgy dossier has permanently tarnished the credibility of "intelligence sources" as a justification for anything.
But Corbyn was present at the Privy Council meetings discussing this matter. Whatever they know, he knows. I can’t imagine all these countries coming out in support of the UK doing so if they weren’t convinced of Russia's involvement.
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horlock07

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« Reply #86 on: Friday, March 16, 2018, 13:00:56 »

But Corbyn was present at the Privy Council meetings discussing this matter. Whatever they know, he knows. I can’t imagine all these countries coming out in support of the UK doing so if they weren’t convinced of Russia's involvement.

Has there been a Privy Council meeting? I only saw on the news that he had been briefed as a member of the Privy Council?
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RobertT

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« Reply #87 on: Friday, March 16, 2018, 13:12:53 »

So under this analysis, it was actually AN Other who tried to off the pair, but everyone else, including the wrongly accused alleged perpetrators, jumped on the bandwagon post facto because it suited their political needs? Bit of a stretch isn't it? I get that the case is far from proven, but this is one hell of a leap isn't it? And if this is the work of the Russian state, it's hardly an isolated incident - from Litvinienko to the Malaysian airliner shot down over Ukraine, to the use of "Little Green Men" in creating a Ukrainian civil war, to their equally illegal proxy annexation of territory in Georgia, widespread interference in elections here, in the US and throughout Europe, to mutliple suspicious deaths of Putin opponents here and across Europe, Russia is a gangster state headed by a gangster who thinks he can kill, steal and wage illegal war at will. Sometimes the most obvious explanation is the most obvious because it's what happened.

Quite.  I think the obvious nature of this is that Russia has the nerve agent, has a potential motive and there are past incidents to support people from within Russia are the source of the attempt.  Precisely who and where is another question, but we have essentially asked them to give us an alternative, and all Russia has done is use the same line they fed Trump for his election, Fake News, Global Elitists etc.  It's clear as mud that Putin continues to move Russia towards some sort of odd mix of Soviet past and Emporer nature.  For that, you need enemies even if you don't want to fight proper wars.
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Arriba

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« Reply #88 on: Friday, March 16, 2018, 13:33:15 »

Is it a coincidence that the poisoning occurred recently after the false accusations towards Corbyn that he was a Russian informant etc?
Is it also a coincidence that this has happend as the Tories fall behind in the polls?
Weak and wobbly Theresa is desperate to come across as strong and stable. The staged flowers, selfie and fist pump yesterday was laughable.
Now she has the opportunity to make it look like she's fighting for our nation. Seems very convenient to me. Why is there no footage whatsoever doing the rounds on this? Even if it was a Russian job I am sure we've had people bumped off all over the world. James Bond does it innit.
« Last Edit: Friday, March 16, 2018, 13:37:23 by Arriba » Logged
pauld
Aaron Aardvark

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« Reply #89 on: Friday, March 16, 2018, 13:37:22 »

But Corbyn was present at the Privy Council meetings discussing this matter. Whatever they know, he knows.
Sorry but Blair has forever discredited the use of undisclosed intelligence in this country by taking the country into an illegal war on the basis of such intelligence which turned out to be false and deliberately so. I think Corbyn's got the overall thing wrong, but I think he's on strong ground with this point.
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