Let's Get Political!

[horlock07]

I would imagine that both parties have a lot of thinking to do after yesterdays result.

Possibly the most amusing bit was that the LD's beat the Tories by more than Labour beat the MRLP.....

[Batch]

Bit tricky that one because the Brexit Party took enough Tory votes to prevent them from winning, had they withdrawn....
Plus Lib Dems got the greens and whatsit whatsit to stand aside thus got undiluted "remain" votes.
Plus the bi-election was triggered by and expenses scandal wasn't it?

Anyway none of that explains Labours performance.

[pauld]

The recent sight of Buckland in his regalia was a truly sickening thing... almost Louis XVIth flummery. 

This at a time when stabbings now seem a weekly occurence on the streets of Swindon.... SBC tries to get a couple of mill from HMG to tart up Old Town, but won't, because they're spunking 2 bill on the  pointless no deal preps, which Buckland now supports to get his costume.

Further the boss of BMW has offered to come over from Germany to explain personally to HMG, why no deal will finish Cowley and by association Gypsy Lane, yet Buckland remains silent.

Difficult for him to speak out when he's got his tongue firmly jammed up Johnson's arse.

[pauld]

Bit tricky that one because the Brexit Party took enough Tory votes to prevent them from winning, had they withdrawn....
Plus Lib Dems got the greens and whatsit whatsit to stand aside thus got undiluted "remain" votes.
Plus the bi-election was triggered by and expenses scandal wasn't it?

Anyway none of that explains Labours performance.

Corbyn mainly explains Labour's lack of performance, he's a fucking disaster. Hilariously, Farage's mob seem to have further weakened the most hard Brexit govt we're ever going to have. Nice own goal, Nige.

[horlock07]

Bit tricky that one because the Brexit Party took enough Tory votes to prevent them from winning, had they withdrawn....
Plus Lib Dems got the greens and whatsit whatsit to stand aside thus got undiluted "remain" votes.
Plus the bi-election was triggered by and expenses scandal wasn't it?

Anyway none of that explains Labours performance.

I don't think anything particularly strong can be interpreted by the results, although it possibly may calm Johnsons rush to an election for a while.

Prof. Curtice was on R4 this morning and his analysis was interesting his 'election now' top line figure was the Tories could loose around 40 seats to the LD's and with other marginals and the situation north of the border with the Scottish Tory's being decimated he was looking at up to 100 seats lost from the Tory party. Of course such a analysis is on the back of a by-election is always unpredictable as is the length of time any new PM keeps his bounce in the polls especially when all his positive promises are likely to come to nowt and we are into no-deal train crash.

To get the hard line vote back its going to take some manner of pact between Tory and Farage Ltd, the fly in the ointment being that the newly appointed power behind Johnson (Cummings) and Farage loathe each other as Farage doesn't seem to think that Cummings is ideologically pure enough. THe key is going to be whether Bannon can act on behalf of the powers that be and get them to play nicely for the good of supremacy and the project.

In other news...

a) it would still be funny if Sinn Fein decide that as they can essentially bring the government down by just rolling up for a few days they take their seats albeit very temporarily, and;

b) the lass who won the seat for the LD's is looking fine at 55!

[Legends-Lounge]

Over all looks like fun. Not even at half time yet.

[jayohaitchenn]

a) it would still be funny if Sinn Fein decide that as they can essentially bring the government down by just rolling up for a few days they take their seats albeit very temporarily

Can people just stop with the SF fantasies? They will not take their seats in Westminster. Ever. End of. No discussions. To even suggest it makes anybody know even remotely understands (Northern) Irish politics go blind from extreme eye-rolling.

Those MPs were elected on the basis that they wouldn't take their seats. It's not going to happen.

From the horse's mouth:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/06/sinn-fein-mp-british-parliament-irish-republicans-brexit

[pauld]

Can people just stop with the SF fantasies? They will not take their seats in Westminster. Ever. End of. No discussions. To even suggest it makes anybody know even remotely understands (Northern) Irish politics go blind from extreme eye-rolling.

Those MPs were elected on the basis that they wouldn't take their seats. It's not going to happen.

Quite. And even if they were minded to take their seats (which they're not), they're more than happy to see as hard a Brexit as the last Prime Minister of the UK can manage to muster as they calculate it will hasten their aims of a United Ireland.

[RedRag]

SF won't turn up at the HC - that IS fantasy.

However, I fear the above summations hint at some form of ITK insider knowledge or otherwise mis-characterise the SF position.

The facts are that it has argued that the north  be designated special status within the EU and for the whole island of Ireland to remain within the EU together.  

SF has argued that the European Union needs to change, sure.  It would like a "social Europe", promoting peace,  economic and social justice, international solidarity and extended democratic accountability.

It argues that such complementary status could protect farming on both sides of the border.

These sort of views on the EU and on the island of Ireland may be anathema to the Brexitists.  However if the above posts are dismissing SF policy as wanting chaos and a return to violence and therefore influence, then those arguments are, imo, of a bottom dredging nature that is too common in Brexit debates.

Unless there is actual evidence....?

[pauld]

These sort of views on the EU and on the island of Ireland may be anathema to the Brexitists.  However if the above posts are dismissing SF policy as wanting chaos and a return to violence and therefore influence, then those arguments are, imo, of a bottom dredging nature that is too common in Brexit debates.

There was nothing in any of the above posts that implied that. SF are on record as saying that an immediate consequence of a hard Brexit should be an immediate border referendum on unification.

[RedRag]

Fair point.

I badly over-read what the posts were actually suggesting....

[Wobbly Bob]

Eire / Northern Ireland.

The clue is in the name.
The prospect of reunification.
If some in the six counties don't like it then they can always be replanted back to Scotland.
Maybe too far fetched as a master No Deal exit plan.
Blow Job could do with a shoring up of the Tory vote north of the border though.

[pauld]

Fair point.

I badly over-read what the posts were actually suggesting....

Not the first time that's ever happened on here. May have been guilty myself occasionally (approx once a week )

[jayohaitchenn]

I wasn't suggesting anything. I have an interest in NI politics as I have NI heritage.

[pauld]

Back to Brecon, WTF were the Tories thinking standing a convicted fraudster in a by-election caused by the recall petition for said fraudster? Did they not want to win? Was this a "leaving present" from the May regime for Johnson?