Let's Get Political!

[RobertT]

I've always thought that Giraffe Skittles are better than Unicorn Farts, so it's good to hear that they are going to get a vote in Parliament Paul.

What seems to have happened is people confusing the exit with a new Britain/Eu Trade Deal.  All we are supposed to be working on now is how to get out if we didn't want to just close the doors and revert to National laws. 

People clearly had an idea that wasn't a great idea as we had plenty of EU Nationals left on the Island and some of "our own" marooned in Spanish enclaves.  Not to mention all the companies who needed parts shipped in who wouldn't fancy working out the impact of WTO rules.  However, people seem to think we were jumping right to the end game here - we are not, just how to get out.  Seems too late now.  It's like the newer Jurassic World film with the Brachiasaurus looking on forlornly as the ship vanishes off over the horizon with a Volcanic Ash Cloud smarting his or hers arse.

[Batch]

However, people seem to think we were jumping right to the end game here - we are not, just how to get out. 

That's only partly true though, because the how we get out is intrinsically linked to the what next.

For example, if we agreed to a permanent customs + freedom of movement, then we don't need Euro negotiation post Brexit (or BINO as Brexiteers would call it).

What appears to be happening right now is more May can kicking to get to a final, never to be extended extension - and then force through her deal as it really would be that or no deal. and that genuinely risks no deal.

In a sensible world, before Christmas (or maybe 2 years ago) we should have been trying to find a consensus in parliament. But it seems she's determined not to do this and not to move her 'red lines'

[RobertT]

I am assuming Customs Union is off the table-  that would never fly after the Ref.

[RedRag]

Perhaps it has been answered hundreds of times but is not the problem with leaving the Customs Union that it appears to necessitate the re-introduction of border controls in broad opposition to the fundamental ambit of the GFA and peace on the island of Ireland?

I'm aware of many of the arguments that have been floated but, remainer or leaver, there are real issues about maintaining borders (or not) between jurisdictions with divergent standards, tarrifs and immigration policies.  Doubly so on a politically sensitive border such as on the Irish mainland.  The more divergent and the more open, the more extensive and serious will be the organised crime that is attracted.  That is a no brainer.

I personally don't think many hardcore leavers give this any serious consideration.  Whilst the onus is on them to show how the UK would comply with its GFA obligations with "Withdrawal Agreement Minus" alternatives, it is also my opinion that Eire/EU could be much more collaborative about potential solutions.  

Whether the WA is a trap or a legitimate insurance policy would seem to depend whether you are leave or remain but there is a real question for grown ups to answer.

But for the maths of the DUP and the Cons in the HC, I believe a majority of actual N. Irish would accept a Customs Union border down the North Sea.  That might largely reconcile the "no Customs Union" proposition Robert highlights with the UKs GFA and wider obligations to Ireland inc NI above?

[michael]

But for the maths of the DUP and the Cons in the HC, I believe a majority of actual N. Irish would accept a Customs Union border down the North Sea.  Just sayin'.

Maybe they would, but Scotland voted to remain and they will not accept part of the UK effectively still in the EU whilst they are not. Would that then break up the United Kingdom?

[Batch]

holy fuck. slender majority of 4 but MPs have approved the spellman addendum to take no deal off the table permanently.

means jack shit legally mind, it's non binding, so will probably be ignored

[Costanza]

means jack shit legally mind, it's non binding, so will probably be ignored

Like the 2016 Ref?

[RedRag]

Maybe they would, but Scotland voted to remain and they will not accept part of the UK effectively still in the EU whilst they are not. Would that then break up the United Kingdom?

It would increase the possibility of Scotland leaving the UK because of that incongruity.

It is my opinion, that the Scots have shown financial pragmatism in voting to remain in the UK and the EU and would be likely to do so again were they to be asked again about the UK.

Whatever lessons we may have learned, the EU Referendum has probably taught us not to be too confident in any predictions.

I note meanwhile apparently reasonable grounds for anticipating May's WA passing at a third attempt....

[Flashheart]

Sammy Wilson of the DUP saying that the economy is currently strong, which proves that we don't need to be in the EU.

Who's going to tell him?

[Batch]

I guess he means can withstand leaving the EU, rather than strong because we are in the EU.

actually, who knows what those nutty gobshites mean.

[RedRag]

Britain was known as "the sick man of Europe" when it joined in 1973.

For the ensuing period up to the Referendum, the UK's per capita growth outstripped that of not only Germany but also of the USA.

Time to acknowledge fact over myth: the UK has prospered within the EU.

[RobertT]

At a basic level it would be absurd for anyone to claim otherwise - what point would there be of being part of a Single Market, as we have, if not to bring more economic opportunity.

The argument is more whether the or not that benefit is enough to balance what some would see as a loss of political sovereignty or the other argued fact that only a small proportion of the Nation have seen that economic benefit.  On top of that, the opening of borders clearly didn't play well with the Saxons.

[pauld]

Jesus fucking wept:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/14/david-steel-faces-suspension-from-lib-dems-over-cyril-smith-revelation

And the next leader of the Tory Party, Boris "all about me" Johnson, has the temerity to describe enquiries into historic child abuse allegations against his kind as "spaffing money". Wonder what he's worried about coming out?

[Ardiles]

She wouldn't be able to cling on that long.  Today really does feel like her last chance to get this through.

Just 3 days on, and I think I'm changing my mind.  May's actions are despicable, bringing her deal back for a 3rd vote when it's been decisively rejected twice already.  She's holding a gun to the heads of the ERG and the DUP - and now that No Deal is, supposedly, off the table, it would not surprise me now if both groups cave in and help to vote it through.

This is nothing short of political blackmail.  The consensus building approach, attempting to find a compromise that parliament could genuinely live with, will probably never get off the ground.  It's shameful.  The outcome will most probably be hated by everyone on both sides of the Brexit debate.  Some legacy.

[pauld]

Last night we saw the farce of a government offering a free vote on a key part of the whole purpose of this government for fear that their own cabinet would defy the party whip. And a government minister vote against the government's motion just minutes after he had sat down from delivering a speech in favour of that motion on behalf of the government he doesn't agree with. This is not a government in any sense of the word