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Author Topic: Let's Get Political!  (Read 1996537 times)
Ardiles

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« Reply #5205 on: Tuesday, March 12, 2019, 11:36:59 »

OK.  Not quite game over for May, maybe, but the AG's advice doesn't help.  What's the betting now that she loses again tonight, but not by much...and then decides to have a 3rd go next week?  That would be true to form, certainly.  She has no Plan B, clearly, and on the evidence of the last few months also doesn't know when to call it a day.
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horlock07

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« Reply #5206 on: Tuesday, March 12, 2019, 11:43:41 »

Now doing the rounds that a DUP source says they do not see how the party can support the deal following Cox legal advice, as the ERG have come out and suggested they will follow whatever the DUP decide to do its not looking good for the PM.

It illustrates what a banana republic we have become where basically our country is being run by a few nutters in a niche party in NI.

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Ardiles

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« Reply #5207 on: Tuesday, March 12, 2019, 11:44:18 »

All puts massive pressure on the ERG now.  They have a choice to make today...that they really don't want to have to make (hence the requests to delay the vote 24 hrs.)

Either:
  • Reject the deal, go full throttle for a No Deal outcome but run the (very significant) risk that this backfires and we end up with a soft Brexit; or
  • Execute the biggest climb-down in recent pollical history and vote for the deal they've campaigned so hard against, having had it explained to them already by the AG that their backstop fears have not been addressed.

Tricky.
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horlock07

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« Reply #5208 on: Tuesday, March 12, 2019, 11:46:33 »

All puts massive pressure on the ERG now.  They have a choice to make today...that they really don't want to have to make (hence the requests to delay the vote 24 hrs.)

Either:
  • Reject the deal, go full throttle for a No Deal outcome but run the (very significant) risk that this backfires and we end up with a soft Brexit; or
  • Execute the biggest climb-down in recent pollical history and vote for the deal they've campaigned so hard against, having had it explained to them already by the AG that their backstop fears have not been addressed.

Tricky.

I think they key for them still remains the need to ensure that whatever happens the UK will not be clobbered by the tax evasion rules the EU are bringing into effect from 1st April. Follow the money and all that.   
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The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey

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« Reply #5209 on: Tuesday, March 12, 2019, 12:05:05 »

Somebody explain to this thicko

The AG has said the UK cannot legally opt out of the back stop without the EU’s permission. So what’s the upshot if the UK just says to the EU, sometime in the future,  ‘Fuck it, we’re opting out of the backstop. Bollocks to you.’
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Ardiles

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« Reply #5210 on: Tuesday, March 12, 2019, 12:13:16 »

We'll have broken international law.  Not sure what the legal implications would be, which I think is what you're asking.

There's also the small matter of trashing the Good Friday Agreement and risking the fragile peace in Ireland.  I still find it incredible how blind the Tory party is to Irish issues & history, and cringe at the thought that it now seems to be the job of the EU to act as a guarantor of peace.  How any politician can, in good conscience, put all of that at risk is astonishing.
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Ardiles

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« Reply #5211 on: Tuesday, March 12, 2019, 12:15:50 »

Next few hours will be very interesting.  Will May now finally realise that the cause is lost?  It's certainly looking hopeless for her now.  Crunch point reached, I think.
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Nemo
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« Reply #5212 on: Tuesday, March 12, 2019, 12:16:31 »

Next few hours will be very interesting.  Will May now finally realise that the cause is lost?  It's certainly looking hopeless for her now.  Crunch point reached, I think.

One way or another, the can can't be kicked any further down this road.
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« Reply #5213 on: Tuesday, March 12, 2019, 12:17:58 »

Somebody explain to this thicko

The AG has said the UK cannot legally opt out of the back stop without the EU’s permission. So what’s the upshot if the UK just says to the EU, sometime in the future,  ‘Fuck it, we’re opting out of the backstop. Bollocks to you.’

So the backstop effectively keeps us closely aligned to the EU.

Saying bollocks to it means that there would need to be a hard border between Northern Ireland and Eire.

A boarder risks (or would) end the Good Friday agreement. A potential return of The Troubles in some form.

Treating northern Ireland separately from the rest of the UK is a "red line", and I believe the DUP would kick off.

Hope I've got that right.
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« Reply #5214 on: Tuesday, March 12, 2019, 12:20:27 »

ERG next up on their (legal) opinion. Backtrack or resolute - this is going to show where we are going this evening..

Suggestions is the ERG are about to fracture...
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The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey

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« Reply #5215 on: Tuesday, March 12, 2019, 12:26:28 »

So, in effect, the options are

Accept May’s deal

Or

No Brexit at all as the likelihood of a GE acting as a sort of 2nd Referendum, leading to, probably, no Billy Brexit at all
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« Reply #5216 on: Tuesday, March 12, 2019, 12:28:25 »

Mr Stupid speaks

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-parliaments-47529293
Quote
Mark Francois - the vice chairman of the European Research Group of Brexiteer Tory MPs - said he was "wholly unconvinced" by Mrs May's improved deal following the meeting.

He said: "Question after question, after question, was directed at her on the legal advice and particularly on paragraph 19 of the attorney general's statement where he makes the critical observation: 'however the legal risk remains unchanged'.

"Colleague after colleague asked about that.

"It's for individual colleagues to judge and obviously they will listen to what the attorney general says in his statement at 12:30.

"Speaking purely and entirely for myself I regret to say I found the prime minister's answers ultimately unconvincing."
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Nemo
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« Reply #5217 on: Tuesday, March 12, 2019, 12:29:02 »

So, in effect, the options are

Accept May’s deal

Or

No Brexit at all as the likelihood of a GE acting as a sort of 2nd Referendum, leading to, probably, no Billy Brexit at all

I'm not sure I get this. I've heard plenty (on both sides, but only Brexiteers really matter here) saying that their side would win a crushing victory in a second poll - if so, why not have that second poll with the options of a) remain b) leave with May's deal and c) leave with no deal at all and remove any lingering doubt?

Would be a horrible campaign I'm sure and no doubt everyone involved would thoroughly shame themselves, but I can't really see a better way. A potential May's Deal vs Remain referendum or a May's Deal vs No Deal one just seem likely to be boycotted by people who want the third option, so why not put all three on the table?
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« Reply #5218 on: Tuesday, March 12, 2019, 12:29:35 »

So, in effect, the options are

Accept May’s deal

Or

No Brexit at all as the likelihood of a GE acting as a sort of 2nd Referendum, leading to, probably, no Billy Brexit at all

3. Remove/sideline May. Get an extension. Pursue a consensus agreement, e.g. soft Brexit. Not necessarily in that order

4. Crash out.
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The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey

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« Reply #5219 on: Tuesday, March 12, 2019, 12:30:30 »

I presume crash out will be voted down tomorrow
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