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Author Topic: Let's Get Political!  (Read 2007434 times)
Ardiles

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« Reply #3165 on: Thursday, April 26, 2018, 15:13:58 »

But because there was no 'Customs Union' or 'Single Market' box in the ballot paper (as Batch points out above), the whole issue as to what the vote really meant is a matter of personal opinion.  So you get nowhere.

There are plenty of MPs arguing this afternoon that the Leave vote certainly did not mean a vote to leave everything.  Two in particular (George Freeman and Antoinette Sandbach) have highlighted that Leave voters before the referendum voiced concern that the 1973 vote was a vote for the Common Market and not a United Europe (which they believed the EU was heading towards).  Until you put these issues explicitly on the ballot paper, you are not entitled to use the 'will of the people' argument...because you're only guessing what that really is.
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Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #3166 on: Thursday, April 26, 2018, 15:26:27 »

But because there was no 'Customs Union' or 'Single Market' box in the ballot paper (as Batch points out above), the whole issue as to what the vote really meant is a matter of personal opinion.  So you get nowhere.

There are plenty of MPs arguing this afternoon that the Leave vote certainly did not mean a vote to leave everything.  Two in particular (George Freeman and Antoinette Sandbach) have highlighted that Leave voters before the referendum voiced concern that the 1973 vote was a vote for the Common Market and not a United Europe (which they believed the EU was heading towards).  Until you put these issues explicitly on the ballot paper, you are not entitled to use the 'will of the people' argument...because you're only guessing what that really is.

The problem is that we had exemptions from Schengen and the Eurozone.... so were never fully in the EU, so what was it people voted for to leave?  Obviously freedom of movement, although we could have put in systems on that under EU law, and then Custom's Union and Single Market.  Some may have confused the ECJ with ECHR... and thought they were voting to get rid of ECHR judgements which of course are nothing to do with the EU.
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horlock07

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« Reply #3167 on: Thursday, April 26, 2018, 15:57:06 »

The problem is that we had exemptions from Schengen and the Eurozone....

Is has been quite funny this week to see many Brexiteers getting all excited by Daniel Hannan making a big song and dance about the Swiss Border being very simple despite them being outside the EU and that thus it was scare stories to suggest we would need a hard border, rather missing the point that whilst Switzerland are not in the EU they are signed up to Schengen and thus more signed up than we are now to free movement.
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pauld
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« Reply #3168 on: Thursday, April 26, 2018, 15:57:35 »

There are plenty of MPs arguing this afternoon that the Leave vote certainly did not mean a vote to leave everything.  
There are plenty of MPs who will argue black is white given half a chance. Means nothing
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horlock07

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« Reply #3169 on: Thursday, April 26, 2018, 16:07:36 »

There are plenty of MPs who will argue black is white given half a chance. Means nothing

I think that more revealing than the appendage waving in the commons where I assume Theresa has wittered on about the explicit will of the people and the fact she knew nothing about Windrush is Amber Rudd refusing to comment on the matter when questioned by journalists noting that there were discussions to be had about it in cabinet to agree a "final position".

So nearly two years after the vote the Cabinet still don't have a final position! Fuck me, no wonder the fucking EU are tearing their hair out its like negotiating with children.

ts all going jolly well,

In the last week along the EU have....

Started the Ratification on trade deals with Japan & Singapore.

Agreed a Trade deal with Mexico.

Approved a strengthened framework to tackle unfair competition in trade.

What have we done in the UK the last week?

Continued to try to deport British people to countries they’ve never lived in.

What could possibly go wrong!
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Ardiles

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« Reply #3170 on: Thursday, April 26, 2018, 16:10:32 »

There are plenty of MPs who will argue black is white given half a chance. Means nothing

In order to be confident that there was a majority in favour of leaving the Customs Union, you have to be able to demonstrate that at least 96.3% (being 50% divided by 51.9%) of Leave voters intended that.  I would venture that the odds of that being the case are approximately zero.
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pauld
Aaron Aardvark

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« Reply #3171 on: Thursday, April 26, 2018, 16:18:27 »

In order to be confident that there was a majority in favour of leaving the Customs Union, you have to be able to demonstrate that at least 96.3% (being 50% divided by 51.9%) of Leave voters intended that.  I would venture that the odds of that being the case are approximately zero.
Fair point. Equally, I just don't buy the idea that substantial numbers of leave voters (or remain voters, not having a pop at leavers) knew there was a difference tbh. It was presented as very much a binary "Leave" or "Stay", not a gradient of leave this bit, but stay in that bit.

The whole thing's a bit of a mess isn't it?
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Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #3172 on: Thursday, April 26, 2018, 16:24:27 »

In order to be confident that there was a majority in favour of leaving the Customs Union, you have to be able to demonstrate that at least 96.3% (being 50% divided by 51.9%) of Leave voters intended that.  I would venture that the odds of that being the case are approximately zero.

Even as a remain voter I accept that the majority voted to leave the EU and therefore our arrangements with it. 

It is then up to the government to sort out the arrangements.

The problem is that many Tories like Johnson went leave out of political expediency not expecting it to happen. The swivel eyed loons probably think there will be money to be made out of leaving the SM and CU.  The likes of Rees Mogg, run hedge funds in the Australia and the Far East, they don't want the EU poking thier nasty nose in on off shore tax evasion.
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pauld
Aaron Aardvark

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« Reply #3173 on: Thursday, April 26, 2018, 16:27:32 »

The swivel eyed loons probably think there will be money to be made out of leaving the SM and CU.
There is, for them. As you rightly point out, Rees Mogg is just one of them
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Ardiles

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« Reply #3174 on: Thursday, April 26, 2018, 16:33:06 »

The whole thing's a bit of a mess isn't it?

Yep.  : )

Difficult to do when Brexit (or the possibility of it) has been in the news constantly for 3 or 4 yrs now, but if you step back and consider two possibilities - one, where we leave the EU and all of its associated structures; and the other, in which we leave the EU politically and still retain close links via membership of the Customs Union etc - the 2nd of these seems far more in keeping with a referendum result that, statistically speaking, was not that far off being split evenly down the middle.

People need to be reasonable.  If the vote in favour of Leave was 70%+, I would have far more sympathy with the view that we had to leave everything.  But it wasn't.  A 51.9% vote in favour of anything is going to involve a degree of compromise somewhere along the line.
« Last Edit: Thursday, April 26, 2018, 16:37:34 by Ardiles » Logged
Ardiles

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« Reply #3175 on: Thursday, April 26, 2018, 16:36:22 »

Even as a remain voter I accept that the majority voted to leave the EU and therefore our arrangements with it.

There is no need for you to accept that, Reg.  It was never put to the vote.
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pauld
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« Reply #3176 on: Thursday, April 26, 2018, 16:43:03 »

There is no need for you to accept that, Reg.  It was never put to the vote.
No it wasn't but I think Reg is correct that that is what most of us thought we were voting on. I certainly did. And this "half-in, half-out, shake it all about" thing looks like politicians trying to sidestep a result they don't agree with
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Pax Romana

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« Reply #3177 on: Thursday, April 26, 2018, 16:58:47 »

In order to be confident that there was a majority in favour of leaving the Customs Union, you have to be able to demonstrate that at least 96.3% (being 50% divided by 51.9%) of Leave voters intended that.  I would venture that the odds of that being the case are approximately zero.

It's not legitimate (in my opinion) to assume that the 48% who voted to remain are a totally consistent bloc who voted to remain in every individual EU institution whilst at the same time carving up the leave vote into individual elements.
 
Reg is right for once ( Cheesy) the decision was made to leave and it's up to the government of the day to work out the best way of achieving that. 

In my view the referendum was a mistake,  Boris Johnson is a cunt and a lot of people who voted to leave were racists or morons or both.  So what?  The result was tight but clear.  Once you start saying "ah yes but they didn't realise this or that or the other and if they had ...." then no referendum or general election result has any meaning and everyone has carte blanche to sabotage any result they don't like.

I was ashamed and embarrassed that we voted to leave, but if another referendum was imposed on us by a bunch of elitists who mouth the word "democracy" but don't actually believe in it, then I would vote to leave on principle and I would hope that other 'remainers' would do the same.
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Ardiles

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« Reply #3178 on: Thursday, April 26, 2018, 17:00:54 »

No it wasn't but I think Reg is correct that that is what most of us thought we were voting on. I certainly did. And this "half-in, half-out, shake it all about" thing looks like politicians trying to sidestep a result they don't agree with

I would argue quite the opposite...that (as above) going for a full throttle, Brexit-on-steroids when only 51.9% of those who voted wanted any kind of Brexit would be perverse.

So yes...a mess.   Cheesy
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horlock07

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« Reply #3179 on: Thursday, April 26, 2018, 17:04:07 »

No it wasn't but I think Reg is correct that that is what most of us thought we were voting on. I certainly did. And this "half-in, half-out, shake it all about" thing looks like politicians trying to sidestep a result they don't agree with

But what actually was promised bar some generality about leaving the EU. Despite the best efforts of our PM, many ministers and their friends in the media the result gives no mandate, for example, to leave the CU or SM, in fact many of the prominent leave campaigners (Johnson, Hannan for example) made explicit reference to leaving the EU not being a vote to leave the SM and CU stating that we would be foolish to do so, yet now two years on we have May et al suggesting that 'will of the people' is explicitly a vote to leave these organisations, as I said earlier she is arguing that the electorate voted explicitly for a question that was never actually asked of them.

As for it not happening, despite the best efforts to lay the blame squarely at the feet of the judiciary, the Lords, anyone who voted remain and most significantly the EU (something that will no doubt continue for the next 40 years) the blame lies in the hands of those who campaigned for the leave vote and then have shown themselves entirely incapable for delivering on their promise.

Its all very well for Rees-Mogg, Gove, Johnson (and a plethora of vociferous leave voters) to bitch and bicker about things and blame others for the fact that utopia is drifting away, yet no one has come up with anything resembling a workable solution to deliver on what was promised. So far your leaders (she is nowt to do with me!) have collapsed on the payments issue (as the EU merely applied the regulations which were already in place pre-referendum and any basic research would have made perfectly clear) meaning that my daughter will still be paying for this when she is in her 60's. No one can come up with a real world example that works for the Irish Border, despite it being blindingly obvious to anyone who spent 5 minutes considering the practicalities of what was being promised that a customs union by definition needs a hard border and if we were to leave said union a hard border would follow (setting aside the complete lack of appreciation of this on the leave side pre-June 2016, this has been an issue in the public domain for over a year now, and still the great minds on the leave side cannot answer it and just keep booting it down the road). And we have not even got to Gibraltar yet, that's when the fun is going to really start! Its abundantly clear that Mogg etc are leaving May in power as otherwise they would have to take an iota of responsibility for this and they are too cowardly to do so, likewise their supporters are also very loath apparently to bring them to account as that might meaning admitting that they have been sold a hospital pass.

Turning to the legalities, a particularly peculiar situation has arisen. The Referendum Bill was flawed if you are a leaver as it never allowed any legal process for the result to be delivered (despite the best efforts of many to rewrite what it actually says), likewise the triggering of A50 was potentially flawed legally, now if I were a leaver I would wonder whether this was simple ineptitude upon the part of the government and their undoubtedly highly paid lawyers, or something more sinister to handicap the whole process - possibly the government holding back a get out of jail free card just in case. One thing that has been gloriously ironic has been seeing so many hard line right wingers trying to suggest that the law should not be interpreted as it is written, these often being the same who are very keen on authoritarian methods of government!

Its a complete shambles and all it appears to have done is shown the UK to be a somewhat unpleasant, unwelcoming and incredibly inept country, led by idiots who managed to swing a vote by embracing longstanding issues within part of the electorate through a particularly unpleasant line of campaigning (interesting that Project Fear is often laid at the feet of the remain side as some manner of insult, when we consider the altogether more unpleasant project fear of the leave side, for example Turkey joining - shown to be total nonsense!, Farages Nazi posters - one thing that has become clear is that the leave campaign was considerably more professional than the remain one, and they did not decide to go down that line as viciously as they did without being aware that it would appeal to a lot of voters - possibly informed by the work of CA etc)

P.S - as you might have gathered I posted this on another forum yesterday and frankly could not be arsed to repeat it all again and copied and pasted instead!  Cheesy Wink
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