Let's Get Political!

[RedRag]

....
The debate on the economics is not an easy one though - there is indeed evidence to suggest that right now the UK benefits financially overall - that is the net financial contribution to the economy is higher than any associated costs through welfare, NHS, local services etc.  However, that is because we are attracting economic migrants - the risk of course is that they too grow old and remain in the country, merely pushing back a cost to the country for later generations again.  You still need to consider some long term costs and begin planning for them.  What has certainly happened is that the boon in economic migrants has helped push that debate back a few years and create some breathing space.

You highlight an important issue.

Reports nearly all show that overall EU migration is a net fiscal benefit to the UK.  By contrast, non-EU migration is a clear net fiscal loss.  Those of us who are are native Brits are also a clear net fiscal loss.  What has now happened since the referendum is that uncontrolled but profitable EU migration is down, whereas controlled and costly non-EU immigration is up.

I understand the attraction of "control" but imo it does appear illusory in practice.  I respect the opposite view.

A minority may just want to shut the door (with limited exceptions).  That would be control.  I would ask then however: Are you comfortable with a disproportionate growth of our native Muslim population and how serious an economic price are you really prepared to pay?

If immigrants are a numbers problem, then the other group to control are the elderly - they simply do not die as they used to and are themselves a source of population growth.   They are massively unproductive as a group (Pensions, Benefits, Social Care and NHS usage).  As you rightly point out, Paul, immigrants grow older and retire and become a future cost.  So does the native working population.

Who will fund today's workers' retirements?  The best element of "control" is less birth control but we, like most EU countries, have a negative birthrate.  Too much birth control, not enough future working taxpayers and an unfunded retirement.  Really, unpleasant ultra capitalist alternatives aside, it seems we are going to have to accept immigration and may even find ourselves competing for it.

[RobertT]

Legends, I think you are wrong on many details, but I respect your reasons.

The EU has many political flaws, that is true, but the fallacy that it is entirely decisions made by unelected people is just that.  Given the responses to the PM question, it is probably more representative by virtue of having three separate strands to keep people in check.  But that's not going to win any arguments in the UK, I know that.

I will blame everyone who uses the "we were lied to" line though - if you refuse to invest time and effort into a decision that impacts your entire form of Government, and instead take one line snippets from people pushing an agenda, then more fool you.  A brief period spend reading up on the original Treaty of Rome should provide enough information to have understood the ultimate end goal.  If people really did believe they were signing up for some sort of weekend club, then they sort of deserve the personal anguish they seem to have felt.

The EU is by no means perfect, in fact, I;d say the institutions are just as useless as the Governments for the Nations.  For me it has always been about what you care for - I don't personally have any real notion of Nationhood in terms of politics - I couldn't care less if the Government was ignoring me in London or in Brussells.  So for me it has always been about freedom - the EU provided a "sense" of allowing people the choice to move, or stay, the choice to travel or not, the choice to trade without barrier.  Ultimately, the European Nations were falling over themselves to fight each other for centuries, since 1945 we have somehow managed to avoid continuing that, and the EU must take some credit.  For all it's imperfections, the divorce process shows just how effective it is at "integrating" countries, if not quite yet cultures.

[RobertT]

Also, on immigration, here is a way the EU does work to move money around, to an extent.  The concept of freedom of movement is no doubt behind what was a growing Eastern EU migration.  By and large, they move for work, not for benefits.  Work pays well, they earn and get taxed locally, hence most reports showing the positive impact on a local economy if new migrants.  They also send money "home", which creates a new income stream for poorer countries - those who remain see more money coming in, raising, even if marginally, local living standards.

At the same time, companies can move to lower cost resource bases, which give immediate cost benefits - but through growing competition, the impact should be an increase in local wages over time.

The problem with these positive benefits is they are incremental and take generations to truly change a country into merely a region.  It still requires good management - nudging - from Government.  You only need to look in England to see how even in a small island, entire regions can be left behind.

All of the above clearly means jack shit if you are a true Nationalist of course, which is where I think more than 50% of the UK is.  The UK itself being a smaller version of the EU, having precisely the same problems as evidenced by the shift in Scottish politics in recent decades.

[horlock07]

All of the above clearly means jack shit if you are a true Nationalist of course

I think the issue is that the lines between nationalism and patriotism have become very blurred and many who are nationalist will actually claim to be patriots mainly due to the negative image associated with nationalism.



Its much like the fact that in the UK the George Flag has almost been annexed by far right organisations in many peoples eyes giving it an interpretation that doesn't actually reflect much of the population. 

[RobertT]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-43224785

And here is a concrete example of where the EU "works: as a concept for me, stay with me.  While it is probably impossible to conclude a direct relationship between being in the EU and the NI Peace Process working out, quite clearly, leaving the EU is going to rip it to shreds to some degree.

There is no workable solution for everyone when it comes to the border.  If we are out of the EU and Single Market, then quite clearly a border is needed between Rep & N Ireland.  That's going to go down like a tonne of bricks with the Sein Fein group.  If a soft border is left in place then a more secure border is needed between the Irish Sea, which means the Unionists will be up in arms about treating N Ireland differently within the UK.

We are resetting to pre-1992 at the very least.

[horlock07]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-43224785

And here is a concrete example of where the EU "works: as a concept for me, stay with me.  While it is probably impossible to conclude a direct relationship between being in the EU and the NI Peace Process working out, quite clearly, leaving the EU is going to rip it to shreds to some degree.

There is no workable solution for everyone when it comes to the border.  If we are out of the EU and Single Market, then quite clearly a border is needed between Rep & N Ireland.  That's going to go down like a tonne of bricks with the Sein Fein group.  If a soft border is left in place then a more secure border is needed between the Irish Sea, which means the Unionists will be up in arms about treating N Ireland differently within the UK.

We are resetting to pre-1992 at the very least.

If only someone had warned them off this chaos, but don't fear Johnson is going to solve it with traffic enforcement cameras like they do between Islington and Camden.... although he has been less forthcoming regarding how a camera can do a customs check?

The attempts of the Tory Party to just trash the GFA to deliver their ideology is the real stinker in the whole process (although they heavily prejudiced it already by essentially making Arlene Foster PM, 'the UK government will stay independent in the negotiation processes', my arsehole). One only has to see the fact that May is responding to the EU drafting of the withdrawal bill to show what a complete fuck up the government have made, the first rule of any legal negotiation (day one of law school) is to make sure your side drafts the legal document as it always give you the upper hand in subsequent negotiations, we have had 18 months to do this and delivered nothing, the public have no idea what the government wants and this draft is merely the EU have given up and had to do it themselves, its frankly fucking embarrassing the manner in which our elected leaders are approaching this, be it sheer ineptitude or an attempt to force parliament to consider a no deal hard brexit, which has little chance of passing parliament anyway.

They are making us a third world country on the international political stage!

[BambooToTheFuture]

We used to have Judy Mallaber when Labour were in power last. She was part of the main cabinet for a number of years and in all honesty (having met her about three times) she wasn't 'full of fluff' like many politicians and she often and continually raised questions asked by her constituents, in parliament and didn't go quietly. She lost her seat in the Con-Lib election. What had been quite a Labour stronghold for a good while and had been a more margin seat previously, swaying between Conservative and  Labour in councillor wards, not really many votes needed to change hands (about 1k-1.2k votes in 50+k avg turnout, so c2% majority). Mallaber lost her set by only 500 votes in 2010. While Labour have suffered in our area, and the conservatives have held since. Last year UKIP didn't stand in our constituency (after gaining around 7k votes in 2015, some 14% share) and it seems of the 7k; 5k went to Conservative (25k) and 2k to Labour (17k), Lib Dem no change (1k) and Greens no change (sharing 1k with an independent). Changes are happening though and current voters here seem unsettled/disillusioned. I wonder if the traditional Labour voters (of the 90s and 00's) that voted for UKIP, will now return to their original vote? Labour could quite possibly regain control. While I see many not voting for Conservative, Labour now need 4k votes to sneak a win. Trouble is, the turnouts have dropped (70k first time out down to 45k last year) meaning they need a massive 11% to gain the seat. Unlikely right now because the 'man on the street' just doesn't know who to vote for or should I say, doesn't know who deserves their vote.

Just up the road Labour have held their position, like Bolsover and the Beasts namesake, Dennis Skinner. I do wonder when he finally gives up his 'dead mans boots' if Bolsover will remain Labour, because while we all love Dennis, it seems more a sentimental/generational affection. He happens to have been a bloody good MP. I think he'll get to 50 years service and call it a day. That or he'll pass in parliament. I met him once, when I was pretty young and he is as no nonsense as he is in the Commons. Certainly one of the last of a certain kind, he'll be missed.

One other politician who I also met a few times was Charles Kennedy, as he used to stay on the island I used to work on. He was also a very genuine character and would stop in a lane, when what was mainly a passing hello, became a good half hour natter. It was such a shame he had the wrath and battle with addiction. It was clear to see yet so difficult to stop, he was a decent man, with an unfortunate gripping vice, that would not let him go. I had a lot of respect for him and even in the few times we chatted he always managed to tell me something new or interesting. He was a very intelligent man. I wish I had been able to spend even more time talking with him.

Back to today, our current MP is Nigel Mills (Con), who has been in since his narrow victory over Mallaber. Having not really been involved in any local politics since moving back, I only know that Mills is the very same guy that was playing Candy Crush in a Parliament meeting. So why he garners any respect up here, for his position is beyond me.

[BambooToTheFuture]

...the EU must take some credit.  For all it's imperfections, the divorce process shows just how effective it is at "integrating" countries, if not quite yet cultures.

This. Also the EU is still a developing project. We've effectively voted to leave before the project has even got anywhere near completion, even though as you stated, it has come a very long way already.

[Reg Smeeton]

They are making us a third world country on the international political stage!

I liked the response to the border question of one prominent Tory Brexiteer.   "We don't want a hard border, but if the EU do then that's their problem"  

[horlock07]

I liked the response to the border question of one prominent Tory Brexiteer.   "We don't want a hard border, but if the EU do then that's their problem" 

Erm, I am no expert but when the bombs start going off again in NI I think that's actually going to be our own, entirely self inflicted problem.....

[Reg Smeeton]

Erm, I am no expert but when the bombs start going off again in NI I think that's actually going to be our own, entirely self inflicted problem.....

I think the Brexiteers hope the Irish economy will collapse and they'll have to come back into the UK.  This time, no repeat of Gideon's 2010 Loans To Ireland Act, which was part of an EU bail out.

[RobertT]

I can't think of anything worse for Peace in Ireland than a collapsing economy combined with the re-implementation of a proper border.  ISIS will probably need to take a backseat for a few years.  Essentially we'll go back to a time just after the dismantling of the Empire, to find ourselves with a UK that actually doesn't want to be tied to each other outside of monetary reasons.  With the Monarchy now no more than a tourist attraction (a good one though), I see the years following Brexit as a steady move towards the loss of Scotland from the Union, the mess ensuing in NI and Wales, well, no idea about Wales.  I'm not even sure if they think they are part of the UK.  They seem to just carry on in little enclaves, as if nothing ever happened, unlike the Scots who as soon as the Uk economy comes under any pressure will re-ignite the Independence push.

[BambooToTheFuture]

I can't think of anything worse for Peace in Ireland than a collapsing economy combined with the re-implementation of a proper border.  ISIS will probably need to take a backseat for a few years.  Essentially we'll go back to a time just after the dismantling of the Empire, to find ourselves with a UK that actually doesn't want to be tied to each other outside of monetary reasons.  With the Monarchy now no more than a tourist attraction (a good one though), I see the years following Brexit as a steady move towards the loss of Scotland from the Union, the mess ensuing in NI and Wales, well, no idea about Wales.  I'm not even sure if they think they are part of the UK.  They seem to just carry on in little enclaves, as if nothing ever happened, unlike the Scots who as soon as the Uk economy comes under any pressure will re-ignite the Independence push.

So much fun to look forward to!

The Welsh will always piggy back us because otherwise it just wouldn't be cricket....

[horlock07]

I can't think of anything worse for Peace in Ireland than a collapsing economy combined with the re-implementation of a proper border.  ISIS will probably need to take a backseat for a few years.  Essentially we'll go back to a time just after the dismantling of the Empire, to find ourselves with a UK that actually doesn't want to be tied to each other outside of monetary reasons.  With the Monarchy now no more than a tourist attraction (a good one though), I see the years following Brexit as a steady move towards the loss of Scotland from the Union, the mess ensuing in NI and Wales, well, no idea about Wales.  I'm not even sure if they think they are part of the UK.  They seem to just carry on in little enclaves, as if nothing ever happened, unlike the Scots who as soon as the Uk economy comes under any pressure will re-ignite the Independence push.

And all delivered on the watch of the Conservative and Unionist Party.... That would be the ultimate irony....

[Ardiles]

And all delivered on the watch of the Conservative and Unionist Party.... That would be the ultimate irony....

I have no idea what they really stand for any more.  Whether you supported them or not, two things that you could always be sure the Tories stood for were (a) the Union; and (b) the interests of Corporate UK.

As you say, the Conservative and Unionist Party is now doing more to dismantle the UK than any other political party (including the SNP).  

And they are also now consistently and unambiguously choosing to fight against all of the massed evidence to suggest that a hard Brexit will inflict immense harm on the economy and on living standards.  Their reputation for economic competence will be trashed for decades...and they don't seem to care.  It's completely & utterly extraordinary.