Let's Get Political!

[pauld]

Yellowhammer is rather disappointing, not so much in what it says as what it doesn’t say.  Not referring to the redactions but rather that it gives no indication as to what they actually expect WILL happen.
 
What is the delta between “reasonable worst case” and “reasonable expected case”?   If it is significant and effective mitigation steps to move us from worst case to reality are being put in place then great.

But what if that delta is actually negligible?  The government are strongly pushing the “that’s just the worst case, we’re taking steps to avoid it” line which has logic to it, but equally it’s reasonable to assume that this government would happily push a line that sounds good but they already know won’t happen.  Yellowhammer should be telling us.

I think the fact that this "Worst case" document that's just been released is essentially the same as the "Base Case" document that was leaked to the Times (the journalist who wrote the story said the only differences were pretty much the retitling and the redactions) tells you that the delta is non-existent. They're just trying to make it look less scary. Much like they claimed that we didn't need to worry about a No-Deal Brexit because it was "million to one chance" and getting a deal would be "the easiest deal in history". If they're saying this is "Worst Case", my guess is that it's actually more likely middle of the possible scenarios and that things could actually be much much worse.

[Flashheart]

My point is that people are implying that the only thing that is stopping the courts from disagreeing with Boris is their reluctance to interfere.  That is as speculative as the assertion from Boris that they agree with him.

I really think you've got the wrong end of the stick there. I've implied no such thing and I don't think anybody else has either.

My point is that Boris is lying. Or an idiot. That's is all; I don't pretend to know what the judges are thinking.

[horlock07]

Another one that seems iffy is the labour mp who voted 3 times for May's deal and now gets a peerage from her.

When you say 'iffy', I assume you actually mean 'entirely par for the course'!

[horlock07]

I think the fact that this "Worst case" document that's just been released is essentially the same as the "Base Case" document that was leaked to the Times (the journalist who wrote the story said the only differences were pretty much the retitling and the redactions) tells you that the delta is non-existent. They're just trying to make it look less scary. Much like they claimed that we didn't need to worry about a No-Deal Brexit because it was "million to one chance" and getting a deal would be "the easiest deal in history". If they're saying this is "Worst Case", my guess is that it's actually more likely middle of the possible scenarios and that things could actually be much much worse.

Scottish govt have also now confirmed that the documents are identical (including writing date) to those they received apart from the change to worst case from base case.

[horlock07]

Not a particularly good look..

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/itv-acting-pm-podcast-with-emma-lewell-buck-1-6266361

[pauld]

My point is that Boris is lying. Or an idiot.

Here's the crucial evidence that Johnson is telling the truth that will be submitted to the Supreme Court

[Bathtime]

Anyone worked out what the best case scenario might be?? Or is that just too unpolitical

[pauld]

Anyone worked out what the best case scenario might be?? Or is that just too unpolitical

These are govt documents, maybe you could ask HMG what they think the best case scenario is? And why they haven't released that? And why they have relabelled "Base Case" (i.e. likely) as "Worst Case"? Maybe Best Case also isn't that different from Worst Case?

[Flashheart]

Anyone worked out what the best case scenario might be??

No brexit?

[horlock07]

Here's the crucial evidence that Johnson is telling the truth that will be submitted to the Supreme Court

It appears the main reason they lost in the Scottish court was that they refused/were unable to produce a signed witness statement detailing why the prorogation decision was taken, it is suspected this being due to the fact that no one in government or civil service could be found to sign such a thing and put them self at risk of perjury charges.

[BambooToTheFuture]

No brexit?

Winner. We can close the TEF now, for today.

[Pax Romana]

No-one here is implying that.

Sorry, I've just re-read what I wrote and I see what you mean.  I didn't mean posters here, I meant the media.  The Today programme on Thursday effectively said that the only reason the English courts wouldn't find against BJ was their reluctance to interfere.  They may be right but they can't know that.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey]

I wish posters wouldn’t use the term BJ.

I only get disappointed after having read it.

[Pax Romana]

Not a particularly good look..

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/itv-acting-pm-podcast-with-emma-lewell-buck-1-6266361

She has either been massively quoted out of context or more likely has just won the prize for the most bizarre comment of the week which is saying something in these times.

The really depressing thing, though, is the general underlying tone of the article which is that so many people of different political persuasions agree that this current government needs to go, but no-one seems prepared to compromise or make a personal sacrifice in order to create a coalition to offer to the country as a viable alternative.

[horlock07]

Dunt's traditional Friday musings

The chatter begins. It always starts quietly at first, then slowly builds up. Maybe there is hope, after all. Maybe a deal with Europe can be done. Maybe Boris Johnson is the man to do it.

Then come the news reports. The prime minister is startled by the implications of no-deal. The DUP are softening on regulatory separation between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. The Europeans are willing to change or erase the backstop.

It's becoming almost a tradition. Expectation builds, slowly and from multiple angles, reaches a crescendo and then finally breaks on the cold, horrible shores of reality.

Reports now suggest the Europeans would accept changes to the backstop. But these would amount to the backstop in all but name: regulatory and customs alignment as an insurance policy against the failure of 'alternative arrangements'.

The suggestions of a DUP shift are also overstated. The maintenance of alignment in the UK is more important to the party than Brexit. The latter is a key policy, the former is a near-Biblical historical commitment. They have arguably been the most consistent of all the Brexit camps since the referendum. Even when many of the ERG hardliners backed Theresa May's deal on the third attempt, they held firm.

Others insist that now Johnson has been blocked from pursuing no-deal, he's really serious about getting one. He would apparently be able to 'sell' it better than his predecessor. But after the events of the last two weeks, even that latter proposition looks dubious. He's not the master salesman he was made out to be.

And then there is the timetable. Even the most positive reports concede that the Europeans have not been shown a viable plan by the UK yet. It's far from clear that Downing Street is capable of constructing that plan. If it somehow could, it wouldn't allow it to emerge before the Conservative party conference, because all hell would break loose. But there's just over a week between the end of the conference and the crucial EU summit where the deal would need to be agreed in mid-October.
Plans for a deal of this complexity and importance can't just be unveiled at a summit. They need time to be discussed, negotiated and agreed. The timing just doesn't work. So even if there was a viable plan in place, you'd still be looking at an extension of Article 50, which takes Johnson past his self-imposed red line.

Coming back to the Commons with a deal - any deal, even one without the backstop - would also sabotage Johnson's electoral prospects. Many in the ERG and the Brexit Party now view any deal as a betrayal, quite apart from whatever the arrangements are on the Irish border.

If he lost the subsequent vote, the swerve back to no-deal would be difficult. He would not be able to regain the image he currently enjoys as someone prepared to embrace the full spiritual mission of Brexit. He'd be turned into May Mark II.

So to even consider this course he'd really need to be confident that he could get it through the Commons. And there's little reason to think he would. He would struggle to get the ERG on board. The DUP are extremely unlikely to vote for it. That means that he needs to find enough pro-deal Labour MPs to make up the numbers.

There had been hints that might be possible. A new group of pro-deal MPs, headed by Stephen Kinnock, are agitating for another crack at May's deal. But, as Chaminda Jayenetti wrote for the site this week, the deal they'd be offered by Johnson would be even worse than what they got under May.
The assurances on staying aligned with worker and environmental rights would be gone. The future relationship document would be amended to rule out customs union or single market membership in future. The fact that the rest of the UK would be able to move away from European standards, leaving Northern Ireland behind, clearly entails a move towards American deregulation in a bid to secure a deal with Donald Trump.

And despite their protestations, the Labour pro-deal contingent have, when it comes down to it, voted against this kind of outcome. People like Lisa Nandy or Caroline Flint, who have pointedly rejected Remain, have almost spotless voting records in blocking Tory Brexit deals. That deal would now be put forward in a less attractive way, by a leader they find more offensive than May. Whichever angle you look at the problem from, the votes are hard to find.

Nothing is impossible and in British politics things now change very quickly. But you would need an optimism close to pathology in order to believe that a deal was in any way likely: the incentives are not there, the ideas are not there and the votes are not there. The rest is just hopeful chatter.